### Summary of the Dolorous Witch Hairstyle Token The **Dolorous Witch Hairstyle Token** is a rare cosmetic item in RuneScape 3 that unlocks a unique hairstyle themed around a dark, gothic aesthetic. It was initially released during a Treasure Hunter event tied to Halloween in **late October 2023**, coinciding with the spooky seasonal updates. As with many Treasure Hunter-exclusive cosmetics, its rarity stems from its limited availability during the promotional window combined with the luck-based nature of obtaining it, making it highly sought after on the player market. ### Rarity and Key Trends Three factors contribute to its rarity: - **Limited release event window**: Exclusively tied to Halloween-themed Treasure Hunter events. - **Popularity of cosmetic items**: Highly desirable among collectors due to the distinct visual appeal of witch-themed cosmetics. - **High barrier to entry**: Players who obtain these items often hoard them for investment purposes, limiting supply in circulation. Price fluctuations, detailed below, reveal that this token has experienced significant surges and dips, likely influenced by market supply shocks, gold inflation, and re-releases. --- ### Price Prediction Over the Next Few Months #### **Historical Price Performance Analysis** From the provided price data, the token's price trajectory has shown sharp spikes and dips. Key observations include: 1. **October 2024 Spike**: Price skyrocketed from **300M (Oct 22)** to **388.4M (Oct 25)**, possibly due to Halloween demand and player investments anticipating seasonal scarcity. This is in line with the event-driven demand for holiday items in RS3 history. 2. **Gradual Accumulation Q2-Q3 2024**: The price hovered around **185M–190M** from **March to June**, aligning with steady player interest in rare Treasure Hunter items. The **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** also likely introduced liquidity that pushed the price upwards afterward. 3. **Early 2024 Dip**: Prices dropped to **110M–130M during March-April**, coinciding with the **combat update release (March 2024)** and **April 2024 duping scandals**, both of which likely diverted GP toward other areas. #### **Future Predictions** 1. **Short-Term (Nov-Dec 2024)**: The price will likely remain around **375M-400M** as Halloween ends and demand wanes slightly. However, continued hoarding from investors ensures a baseline price floor around **350M**. 2. **Mid-Term (Jan-Mar 2025)**: Expect prices to decline to **250M–300M**, matching January’s historically poor player-driven demand for cosmetics as focus shifts to combat- and boss-centric updates after seasonal events. A re-release or another Treasure Hunter event in this period could further impact pricing negatively. 3. **Long-Term (Late 2025+)**: Prices could exceed **450M–500M**, especially after long-term scarcity develops. RuneScape’s history proves holiday cosmetics with delayed re-releases tend to appreciate significantly over time. #### Updates & Correlation to Price Shifts: - **Halloween-related Events (~October)**: Tokens like this historically appreciate around Halloween when demand peaks, even if not directly re-released. - **Inflationary Events**: Past economic inflations—such as dupes or Treasure Hunter gold rains—lead to higher player purchasing power and price appreciation in cosmetics like the Dolorous Witch Token. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins Experienced flippers can take advantage of rapid price oscillations: - **Daily Margin (Low movement)**: **10–15M profit** during periods of price stabilization (e.g., March-April). - **Event-Driven Margin (High movement)**: **30–50M profit** around high-volume holiday demand or Treasure Hunter promotions (e.g., late October). Buy-offs between 300–350M can often resell at 375M during peak days post-Halloween hype. - **Long-Term Investment Margin**: Expect **100–150M+ margin within 6–9 months** after purchasing at a low point (e.g., post-January). Key Advice: Always avoid market panic selling following economic exploits (e.g., **May 2024 Max Cash exploit**) as GP injections often lead to long-term price rebounds. --- ### Similar Investment Items & Seasonal Trends #### **Similar Items to Buy** 1. **Dark Magic Ethereal Outfit Token**: Another Halloween cosmetic, ideal for pairing with the Dolorous Witch Token due to shared themes. Prices rise in tandem during October, creating a multi-item flipping opportunity. 2. **Black Partyhat**: Released in **December 2023**, it shares the high-tier cosmetic appeal and player hoarding behavior. Its value correlates with market gold inflationary events. 3. **Wraithful Shield Bow Token**: From a recent Treasure Hunter promo. Its dark aesthetic aligns with similar audience interest, displaying seasonal price ties. #### **Seasonal Outcomes** 1. **Positive Seasons (Price Growth)**: - **October**: Halloween promos boost interest in gothic/witch-themed items. - **June-August**: Summer and pre-combat updates often leave players chasing rare, non-combat items. 2. **Negative Seasons (Price Decline)**: - **January to March**: Early-year combat or economic updates typically cause GP to flow toward gear and bosses, deflating cosmetic item prices slightly. - **Duping Event Fallout**: Avoid investing in times of major dupes or exploits, as short-term market saturation hampers price recovery. --- ### Final Takeaways The **Dolorous Witch Hairstyle Token**, while experiencing predictable seasonal trends, remains a lucrative long-term hold that benefits from RuneScape’s growing focus on cosmetic value. Use price dips in **January-March 2025** to invest below **300M**, and target sales before or during the next Halloween season. Diversify with similarly themed items, and monitor Treasure Hunter announcements closely for re-release risks and flipping opportunities.