### **Summary of the Corrupted Combust Cosmetic Ability Scroll** The Corrupted Combust cosmetic ability scroll transforms the visual effects of the *Combust* ability into a corrupted, dark-themed aesthetic. Released in mid-2024, this item debuted during a Treasure Hunter promotional event, categorized under rare "Gold" or "Purple" prize tiers. It quickly gained popularity due to its appeal among PvM and PvP players who wanted enhanced visuals for their setups. - **Release Date:** Likely introduced around the late-July 2024 Treasure Hunter promotion, aligning with events such as the *Sanctum of Rebirth* release. - **Rarity:** Very rare within Treasure Hunter, with rates comparable to other ability-scroll cosmetics like *Corrupted Blast*. Its demand surged due to its visual impact and cosmetic effect over an essential ability in the meta. --- ### **Price Movement Analysis** From its June-July lows to its meteoric rise in November 2024, the Corrupted Combust scroll has experienced exponential price volatility. Below is an analysis of the trends and events driving these fluctuations: 1. **Early Adoption Phase (June - August 2024):** - **Price Range:** 151M - 450M GP. - The scroll was introduced along with Treasure Hunter promos during heightened promotional content. Early adopters purchased them at lower values (~150M - 200M GP). The scroll hovered below 450M GP due to competition with other popular *Necromancy*-themed content and limited speculative investment. 2. **Initial Price Floor (August - Late October 2024):** - **Price Range:** 450M - 550M GP. - By August, the broader player base began to acquire and hoard cosmetic scrolls, viewing them as alternative investments during the speculative post-*Sanctum of Rebirth* content drought. Market stabilization occurred under competitive Treasure Hunter rewards, limiting short-term scarcity. 3. **Skyrocketing Demand (November 2024):** - **Price Range:** 575M - 995M GP. - A sudden spike in price coincided with the *GIM bank bug* dupe event on November 1, which injected massive gold into the economy. As excess liquidity flooded the market, wealthy players artificially inflated high-rarity items like Corrupted Combust. In addition, the *Necromancy max combat meta* delved deeper into PvM hybrid styles, indirectly increasing player interest in ability-focused scroll cosmetics. - Further amplifying demand was the near-complete exhaustion of Treasure Hunter-released stock, as players hoarded scrolls for future returns. 4. **Historical Insight on Treasure Hunter Dynamics:** - Treasure Hunter items such as this typically stabilize after their initial boom, barring a future re-release, as scarcity drives long-term value up. For example, *Corrupted Blast* followed a similar trend in late 2023, peaking at 800M GP within months of its introduction and stabilizing above 600M GP. --- ### **Price Predictions** Given the historical market trends for rare Treasure Hunter cosmetics, the Corrupted Combust scroll is likely to follow a predictable trajectory if no re-releases occur: 1. **Short-Term (December 2024 - February 2025):** - Anticipate price stabilization between **800M - 1B GP**. Post-November inflation from the *GIM bank bug* will drive a steady demand pool as wealthier players shift liquid gold into rare items. 2. **Mid-Term (March - May 2025):** - The price will depend on Treasure Hunter re-releases or similar newly introduced cosmetics. Assuming no comparable item dilutes Corrupted Combust's appeal, prices could reach **1.2B GP before gradually tapering around 1B GP.** - Watch for Treasure Hunter promotional reruns, as Jagex has periodically re-released high-demand cosmetics around seasonal events. **Potential Risks to Price:** - The single greatest threat is a Jagex re-release of similar ability cosmetics within the next few months. This could dilute exclusivity and cause the price to plummet by up to 40-50%. - Another economic destabilization event injecting trillions into the economy could artificially inflate prices beyond sustainable investment levels, leading to market corrections. --- ### **Profit Margins for Flipping (as of November 2024)** At current prices (~995M GP), flipping margins rely on rapidly leveraging micro-spikes in player demand on forums or Discord trading channels: - Typical flipping profits range: **30M - 75M GP per scroll**. - Margins above 100M GP are rare without catastrophic market reactions or direct price manipulation. For flipping, monitor early offloads after new Treasure Hunter promotions, as impulse sellers may undervalue based on prior prices, creating arbitrage opportunities when relisting. **Tip:** Set buy offers 10-15% below current GE trade values and offload incrementally to higher-tier investors at market highs. --- ### **Similar Items to Watch** Diversify investments with other cosmetics treading similar paths: 1. **Corrupted Blast (Ability Scroll):** - Functionally and thematically aligned with Corrupted Combust, it could see a resurgence as player-set combos rise in popularity. 2. **Bladed Dive (Ability Cosmetic):** - Already a staple in PvM-cosmetic setups, it rivals other mobility-based visual scrolls. 3. **Ethereal Outfits and Rare Pets:** - Look at high-tier ethereal outfits or collectibles directly linked to Necromancy and hybrid combat. These items are cyclically lucrative. --- ### **Seasonal Influence on Pricing** Certain months are better or worse for item prices based on in-game economic trends: 1. **Positive Seasons:** - **March - May:** Inflationary periods as players invest profits from Treasure Hunter or PvM updates into cosmetics or high-tier rares. - **October - December:** Demand spikes during holiday events (e.g., Halloween or Christmas), with casual playerbase surges driving cosmetics. 2. **Negative Seasons:** - **June - August:** Prices often stagnate due to summer content droughts or promotional fatigue unless blockbuster events intervene. - **Post-Market Reset Scenarios:** Any enforced GP sink, like higher bond costs, could reduce disposable income for flipping. Investing prior to Treasure Hunter rotations or holiday event periods tends to produce the highest ROI with the lowest downside. Keep a close eye on Treasure Hunter announcements for decision-making.