### Summary of Roar of Awakening
The **Roar of Awakening** was released as a rare and powerful cosmetic sourced from the **Sanctum of Rebirth**, a highly awaited update introduced on **July 22, 2024**. This item became part of a significant content patch centered around high-level PvM updates and visually appealing rewards. It is a tradable reward often associated with completion of high-value activities from that patch.
Initially commanding exorbitant prices, Roar of Awakening saw heavy volatility in pricing due to its dual appeal: rarity as a PvM reward and strong demand for its cosmetic prestige by elite players or wealthier traders.
### Rarity
Roar of Awakening is categorized as *extremely scarce*, with RNG drop mechanics limiting supply further. The Sanctum of Rebirth content’s steep skill and gear requirement also filters casual players out, meaning a relatively small subset of the player base is farming the item. Furthermore, cosmetics from endgame PvM content historically tend to appreciate in value due to limitations of supply as content popularity wanes.
---
### Price Analysis and Prediction
Here is a breakdown of the **price history** over time:
- **Peak Value (July 22-23, 2024)**: At release, with extreme hype, the item surged to **1.9B GP**. Limited market supply and high demand created an initial bubble.
- **Post-Hype Decline (July 23 - August 5, 2024)**: As more players unlocked the reward, prices dropped to the **300M–500M GP range**. Larger drop rates (from easier methods in the patch) diluted scarcity.
- **Stabilization Phase (August 12 - September 17, 2024)**: Price rested around **175M–200M GP**, sustained by a balance between demand from cosmetic collectors and falling Sanctum activity.
- **Q4 Recovery (October 2024)**: Prices began climbing again, peaking recently at **159M GP** due to seasonal factors and reduced availability as interest shifted away from Sanctum of Rebirth.
#### Price Prediction
- **Short 1–3 Month Outlook (Jan–March 2025):**
Expect moderate increases in price toward **175M-190M GP** as active supply further diminishes due to content fatigue and players transition to newer activities. Scarce vanity items often experience greater price elasticity over time.
- **Medium-Term Trends (Summer 2025):**
With no mention of upcoming PvM expansions in sight, Roar of Awakening has long-term upward potential. However, unpredictable re-releases, Treasure Hunter promotions, or Jagex introducing similar alternatives could flatten growth. Nonetheless, prices should settle around the **200-250M GP range** by mid-2025 on a speculative basis tied to collector interest.
**Key Variables:**
1. **Updates:** If Jagex unexpectedly reintroduces this drop pool into Treasure Hunter or adds new alternatives, the price could fall drastically.
2. **Economic Factors:** GP inflation from max cash exploits or dupes should lift prices in proportion to total market liquidity.
---
### Flipping Margins
Flipping profit margins for the Roar of Awakening in the current market are typically **5M–15M GP per trade**, with well-timed purchases during price "lulls" yielding higher returns. While margins maximized during the peak volatility phases (e.g., **August 2024 drops**), careful flipping remains possible in highly active trading windows, such as weekends or after updates prompting PvM activity.
To minimize risk:
- Buy cyclically at **low-volume trade hours** (3–10% below standard prices) when high GP players are offline.
- Sell during peak trading periods where competitive undercutting is tense.
---
### Comparable Items to Invest In
To diversify investments, consider other PvM-based or high-demand cosmetics that follow similar rarity-demand dynamics:
1. **Shadow Nihil Pet (Zaros PvM Theme)**
- Obtained from transitioning/intermediate levels of Elder God Wars Dungeon content.
- Rare yet sought after for skillers and fashion-scape players.
2. **Gloves of Passage**
- Follow strong PvM rarity trends and were slightly undervalued post-Treasure Hunter integration.
3. **Golden Party Hat or Black Partyhat**
- A highly speculative comparison cosmetic still commanding huge interest from both collectors and cosmetics-based merchers.
#### Seasonal Insights
- **Positive Trends Seasons:**
- Peak growth occurs **post-December/January updates**, where returning players invest GP after holiday events or Treasure Hunter rewards taper off.
- **March/April Updates:** Historically ideal times for flipping, as the pre-summer "content drought" causes PvM activity to dip, reducing active sourcing.
- **Negative Trends Seasons:**
- **July/August (Blood Economy Expansion):** With summer updates, new content diverts attention. Sanctum-based items often depreciate cyclically.
Investment in Roar of Awakening during its lulls correlates with longer-term return durability, especially if market inflation trends persist. Combining its limited influx (due to inactive drop mechanics) with cosmetics meta appeal makes it one of the safer mid-term trading choices in the current content cycle.
Ely Intelligence Analysis