### **Memory Dowser Overview**
The **Memory Dowser** is a rare skilling tool that enhances Divination efficiency by automatically collecting and storing memories during training. Released on **April 20, 2023**, it was obtainable through an event tied to Necromancy’s introduction, making it relatively niche but highly sought after for Divination skilling enthusiasts. Its introduction caused a slight spike in Divination-related activity, and it has steadily risen as players shifted toward convenience-focused gameplay. The **rarity** is moderate; while not a discontinued “rare,” its limited re-releases (if any) and the intrinsic demand make it a capital-intensive item for merchanting and speculative trading.
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### **Price Trend Analysis**
From the data provided, the **Memory Dowser** has shown significant volatility over the last three months, with prices ranging between **355M** GP and **846.6M** GP. The general trend showcases:
- **October 2024 Dip (355M-450M)**: This was likely driven by panic selling after the **GIM Bank Duplication Bug (Nov 1)** was rumored to dupe multiple items, causing market distrust. Compounded by general deflation spurred from the **Easter Dupes (April)** earlier in the year, the item hit its lowest point in months.
- **Gradual Recovery in November (500M+)**: As panic subsided and speculative buy-ins pushed the price back up, the lack of further re-releases ensured scarcity. Additionally, the **Sanctum of Rebirth (released in July)** heavily impacted revenue generation through bossing gold inflows, influencing cash-rich buyers to come back into the market.
- **Sharp Growth in December (up to 846.6M)**: This coincides with the **Black Partyhat Event (Dec 2023)** and the **Treasure Hunter GP Buff (Dec 1)** increasing the overall liquidity of the economy. Investors likely diversified lucrative long-term assets such as the Dowser, inflating demand.
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### **Price Prediction**
**January–March 2025**:
1. **Base Range Prediction**: 780M to 900M GP.
- **Upside Case**: Continued scarcity, high-end skilling tools gaining popularity, and gold inflation stemming from **Treasure Hunter GP insertion** sustain or boost price.
- **Downside Case**: A potential re-release of the Memory Dowser during Treasure Hunter or events might temporarily cap highs or lead to mass undercuts, bringing the price back to ~550M-600M GP.
2. **Key Factors to Watch**:
- Announcement of Divination-related or TH-exclusive tools (risk factor).
- Bonds’ demand (cash sinks), as rising RL prices indirectly restrict GP proliferation.
- Treasure Hunter GP balancing (continued GP injections would inflate prices further).
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### **Typical Flipping Margins**
For higher-margin merchanting:
- **Low-Volume Flipping (Profit Range)**: Buying during mid-trend stabilization (650M-750M) and selling near the ceiling (~800M+). Margins in this range are **70M–150M per trade**.
- **High-Volume Trading (Day Trading)**: Prices fluctuate daily between 10M-30M during high peak sales windows, which can allow scalping profits with less time investment, albeit lower returns.
Patience is rewarded during market uncertainty, such as rumored re-releases, where overcorrections result in low-entry points.
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### **Comparable Items for Diversified Investment**
If pursuing similar investment strategies, consider the **Skilling Conveniences or Augmented Niche Items** category:
- **Divination Chronicle Fragments (boosts XP efficiency)**: Strong seasonal growth due to Divination demand but requires attention to its accessibility updates.
- **Elite Skilling Outfits** (e.g., Divination Outfit): Decent seasonal profits, not as volatile, scales predictably with Treasure Hunter events.
- **Bloodwood Seedlings**: A crafting-adjacent limited resource. Its scarcity during skill reworks (like Sanctum of Rebirth) mirrors historical rises like the Memory Dowser’s.
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### **Seasonal Pricing Highs/Lows**
1. **Positive Seasons**:
- **Winter Holiday Events (December-February)**: Increased liquidity due to Treasure Hunter payouts and gold from casual player influx during holiday breaks.
- **Major Bossing Updates (e.g., Combat Update)**: Anchors affluent PvMers in speculative markets, driving demand for skilling tools.
2. **Negative Seasons**:
- **Post-Duplication Market (April or post-panic events)**: General deflationary periods often see high-value convenience items dumped onto the market, temporarily suppressing prices.
- **Fresh Start/Low Gold Periods (e.g., May)**: Historically, when playerbase-wide GP sinks like Bond Price increases occur, speculative markets cool off before the next surge in GP supply.
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### **Closing Insights**
The **Memory Dowser** thrives as a speculative luxury item, perfect during skilling-focused meta updates or liquidity spikes. Its links to a niche skill and increasing tradable portfolios among elite PvMers make it a reliable buy when undertraded. For long-term investments and flipping strategies, **entry below 650M GP** is currently optimal, and sales during liquidity influx events post-update announcements are ideal. To hedge against possible future risk, invest concurrently in higher-demand, time-proven items like Noxious Components, as their value correlates positively with the same macroeconomic effects.
Ely Intelligence Analysis