### Summary of the Frozen Basic Attack (Necromancy) Cosmetic Ability Scroll: The **Frozen Basic Attack (Necromancy)** cosmetic ability scroll was released as part of RuneScape 3’s **Necromancy-themed content**, likely tied to the skill's launch on **August 7, 2023**. It provides a visual enhancement to Necromancy basic attacks, adding an icy animation overlay. The scroll falls into the class of desirable cosmetic upgrades that appeal to high-end players or collection-focused merchants. Its rarity seems to stem both from limited availability and its demand in the post-Necromancy player base, particularly for customization enthusiasts and PvMers showcasing builds. It had a massive price spike, going from **199M GP** (October 2024) to nearly **800M GP** (December 2024). This suggests a scarcity-driven frenzy, likely fueled by the influx of GP in the economy and demand in cosmetic markets. ### Historical Price Trends Analysis: Looking at the item’s price spikes and dips: - **October 17-22, 2024**: Prices dramatically shifted from **251M GP** to **199M GP**, with a temporary uptick to **294M GP**. This fluctuation likely reflects adjustment after post-launch excitement subsided but before long-term scarcity began impacting the market. - **Late 2024 Pricing Explosion**: The item hit **799M GP** by **December 2024**, potentially influenced by **holiday-driven spending**, wealth injection from bugs (November’s GIM bank dupe), and seasonally high player activity during the holidays. ### Correlation to Historical Events: 1. **Necromancy's Launch (August 2023)**: The release of Necromancy created sustained demand for associated cosmetics, especially for high-end players chasing skill-capping or aesthetic enhancements. 2. **November 2024 Duplication Glitch**: The GIM bank bug (November 2024) added massive item/value inflation to the game. Players with duplicated wealth often invest heavily in unique, rare cosmetics, driving high-end niche markets. 3. **Holiday Demand**: December tends to see activity spikes due to festive spending. Players looking to flex rare items or finish collections could have driven the **nearly 4x price increase** over two months. ### Price Prediction (2025 Outlook): Given historical trends in similar cosmetic items: - **Short-term (Q1-Q2 2025)**: Expect prices to dip to **~550M-650M GP**. Many high-end fluctuation items experience a post-holiday cooldown as fewer players focus on cosmetic purchases. Potential new Necromancy cosmetics or Treasure Hunter content could split demand. - **Mid-term (Q3-Q4 2025)**: The scroll could climb again to 750M-1B GP if no re-releases occur and player wealth continues to inflate. Scarcity-driven investments tend to soar in the months leading to the anniversary of *major skills* (i.e., Necromancy's 2nd anniversary). - **Reroll Curve Risks**: If Jagex re-releases this item (e.g., via Treasure Hunter or direct sales), the price could plummet below **150M GP**, following trends from prior cosmetics. ### Typical Flipping Margins: Frozen Basic Attack (Necromancy) has shown consistent volatility, meaning skilled traders could capitalize on exaggerated buy/sell gaps. Typical margins based on historical performance: - **High liquidity phase** (e.g., October 2024): Rapid 5-10% flips (e.g., buying at 225M and selling at 250M). - **Rare speculation phase** (e.g., December 2024): Wide gaps of 25-30% are possible with higher risk. This entails buying under 650M and selling closer to 800M. ### Comparable Items to Invest In: To diversify your portfolio: 1. **Other Necromancy Cosmetic Scrolls**: Look into *Death Ritual Alter cosmetic disruptor scrolls* or *Ghostly Surge* tier equivalents, which share relevance, thematic synergy, and rarity. 2. **Prestige Animations**: Examples like the *Planetary Weapon Trail* or the *Infernal Teleport Animation* hold stable, high collector demand. 3. **Holiday Items (Black Partyhat)**: If capital allows, invest in new tradable rares introduced during holiday periods. For example, the 2023 *Black Partyhat* maintains consistent growth due to limited quantities. ### Seasonal Cycles and Timing for Profits: - **Best seasons for positive trends**: - Post-January (one month into holiday influx remnants). - *Late Summer (July-August)*, often tied to mid-year updates. - November-December (*Festive Spike*). - **Riskier seasons with likely dips**: - **Spring lull (March-May)** due to fewer content updates. - **Post-content-season dips**: E.g., after Necromancy follow-up releases, if Jagex shifts focus. ### Final Recommendations: - Prioritize short-term flips (3-4 days holding windows) during activity spikes. - Pair with *Necromancy-related obscure rares* for synergy. - Avoid selling December-to-February unless spikes push above 900M+, given that Q1 2025 will likely cool inflated demand.