### Summary of Frozen Touch of Death Cosmetic Ability Scroll The **Frozen Touch of Death** cosmetic ability scroll is a rare item in RuneScape 3, highly sought after for its impressive visual effect and ability to enhance the aesthetics of high-tier PvM abilities. It was **released in 2024**, likely as a reward from Treasure Hunter events or similar seasonal promotions. Items like these often appeal to both collectors and players who enjoy customizing their gameplay experience. Given its release via these limited methods, its rarity is inherently tied to promotion cycles and the supply created during active events. At the time of this analysis, it is priced at approximately **700M GP**, indicating significant demand despite being purely cosmetic. Rarity increases due to the volatility of Treasure Hunter promos, the supply bottlenecks after an event ends, and the increasing amount of GP in circulation over time. --- ### Release Timing and Correlation with Historical Events Many updates and events impact item prices both directly and indirectly. Here’s some analysis around the timing of the **Frozen Touch of Death’s** introduction and potential context from notable game milestones: 1. **Necromancy Combat Update (August 2023):** - Released shortly before Frozen Touch of Death, this update increased max combat level to 152 and added Necromancy. Items with cosmetic effects for combat purposes surged in demand due to players engaging in the new skill and PvM content. This event likely helped establish a strong initial appeal for the scroll. 2. **Hero Pass Backlash (September 2023):** - Discontent around Hero Pass heightened player distrust of microtransaction content. Despite this, cosmetics tied to PvM generally hold their value better than Hero Pass rewards because they represent a status symbol, avoiding the backlash’s full brunt. 3. **Black Partyhat Release (December 2023):** - Rare cosmetic items spike the market overall. Wealthier players liquidate assets for rare items like new partyhats, temporarily diverting gold from other markets. This may have caused an earlier price dip or stagnation in demand around this major release. 4. **Treasure Hunter Changes (April 2024) and Max Cash Exploit:** - Both events significantly impacted GP availability, likely spurring inflation. Increases to Treasure Hunter GP payouts (April) and dupes (May) over-saturated the market, funneling disposable wealth into legacy and collectible items like Frozen Touch of Death. --- ### Price Prediction (Late 2024 - Early 2025) The price of **Frozen Touch of Death** will largely follow broader GP inflation trends and player interest in cosmetic content. Given that similar ability scrolls and promotional cosmetics historically appreciate in value after their event ends, Frozen Touch of Death is positioned for growth, barring market disruption. **Price Forecast:** - **By December 2024:** Likely to rise toward **850M - 950M GP**, as Treasure Hunter introduces Christmas-themed cosmetics. Demand for Frozen Touch of Death will climb due to a lack of competing promos and increased holiday spending. - **By February-April 2025:** Prices could hit **1B GP+**, assuming no re-releases or significant supply influx. However, another Treasure Hunter promo near Easter may cause modest dips if similar cosmetics are released. --- ### Historical Rarity Trends and Market Volatility Historically, items like Frozen Touch of Death experience price peaks shortly after promotions end, driven by collectors and those who missed out during the event. However, unpredictable events like **dupes** or **mass GP injection (e.g., Max Cash exploit in May 2024)** can lead to fluctuations. These crashes are frequently followed by recovery periods, where owners hold rare items long-term to regain value. Key Factors That Cause Price Spikes or Dips: 1. **Re-releases:** A potential re-release through Treasure Hunter could drastically lower its price. This is unlikely within 12 months of the initial promotion. 2. **Gold Inflation:** Dupes and Treasure Hunter GP payouts directly increase the buying power of players needing such cosmetics, leading to price rises. 3. **Competing Items:** Future promotions featuring similar cosmetic ability scrolls or effects might split demand. --- ### Flipping Margins Cosmetic scroll flipping can be profitable, especially with high volatility in prices. The Frozen Touch of Death shows potential for moderate flipping margins of **10-15%** around spike/dip cycles. 1. **Short-Term Margins (50-100M GP):** - Monitor weekend demand increases as PvM activity peaks. Buy during off-peak hours when demand temporarily drops (e.g., mid-week). - Example: Buying for **700M GP** and reselling for **780-800M GP** after collector spikes. 2. **Long-Term Margins (300M GP+):** - These occur when holding through seasonal cycles (e.g., post-Christmas overflow to Q2 scarcity). High-end buyers return with expanded wealth post-inflation. --- ### Suggested Similar Investments Diversifying into alternative rare cosmetics, player-oriented collectibles, or Treasure Hunter rewards is recommended to mitigate risks. Favorable options include: 1. **Blood Dye & Ice Dye:** Consistently high-performing cosmetic staples. 2. **T99 Prayer Scrolls (Volcanic/Darksoul):** Functional high-tier PvM unlocks that retain value alongside aesthetic appeal. 3. **Legacy Rares (e.g., Partyhat Shards, Golden Partyhats):** High rarity and primarily inflation-resistant. 4. **Other Cosmetic Scrolls:** Examples include Frozen Seren Godbow effects or Flameburst abilities. --- ### Seasonal Investment Timing 1. **Positive Seasons:** - **Holiday periods (December-January):** Increased player spending due to events and GP inflation. Ideal for price surges. - **Post-major content updates (e.g., combat reworks):** More general demand for PvM-focused cosmetics. 2. **Negative Seasons:** - **Summer (June-August):** Historically lower, as promotional content competes for attention, and re-releases are more common. - **Post-dupe scandals:** Immediate dips caused by market destabilization before recovery. By focusing on timing purchases during price troughs (summer or post-dupe), you can maximize flipping profits and capitalize on cosmetics' inherent rarity.