### **Frozen Death Skulls Scroll Analysis** #### **Summary & Release Information** The Frozen Death Skulls cosmetic ability scroll is a rare unlockable item in RuneScape 3. It grants access to a unique override animation for abilities that gives a skull-freezing visual effect, widely appreciated by PvMers and skillers looking to add flair to their gameplay. Released through Treasure Hunter during a seasonal promotion (around Halloween 2024), this item was immediately marked as a high-demand chase cosmetic due to its aesthetic appeal and exclusivity. #### **Rarity** The scroll is exceptionally rare due to its limited-time release on Treasure Hunter and the relatively low drop rate. Treasure Hunter promotions typically flood items into the market early but experience steep supply drop-offs post-event. Cosmetics like this, especially holiday-themed ones, tend to have prolonged value sustainability because the supply can't be replicated beyond re-releases. #### **Price Data & Trends** The item demonstrates the following price movements: - **October 17-18, 2024:** Began at a low of 120M GP following its Treasure Hunter release but quickly surged due to speculative buying, climbing to 155M GP within hours and stabilizing at 200M GP the next day. - **November 3, 2024:** Jumped to 241M GP, a 20% increase in less than three weeks, indicating bullish collector and flipper activity as the Halloween hype phased out and the scroll’s perceived rarity increased. **Noteworthy Historical Factors:** The Halloween 2024 promotion coincided with a **2.1B group ironman (GIM) bank dupe on November 1, 2024.** The widespread introduction of GP and duped items likely allowed wealthier players to purchase high-end collectibles like the Frozen Death Skulls scroll at escalated prices, driving its spike to 241M. #### **Historical Events Impacting Prices** 1. **Rollback and Dupes (2021, 2023, and 2024):** Major GP injections lead to cosmetic inflations as excess gold chases high-value items. These spikes tend to occur 1-2 weeks post-dupe. 2. **Treasure Hunter Inflations:** Items historically see significant discounts initially during the promotional event but stabilize or rise once the active supply ceases. The Halloween 2024 release period aligns with this framework. 3. **Combat Updates (e.g., Aug 2023 Necromancy):** New combat systems always result in greater demand for cosmetic overrides as players seek to personalize their loadouts. #### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** 1. **Short-term (1-3 months):** The scroll's price is likely to consolidate around 250M-280M GP as post-holiday purchasers create scarcity and speculative investors hoard. However, the broader GP inflation from dupes could push prices toward 300M+ during Q1 2025. 2. **Medium-term (3-6 months):** Prices may marginally taper back to the 220M-250M range, especially if another Treasure Hunter rerelease or a competing cosmetic enters the scene (possible during Easter promotions in April 2025). #### **Flipping Margins** - **Current Margin Opportunities:** Flipping margins for this scroll are exceptional in the short-term (~7-10%). Based on a buy price of 200M-220M and sell prices nearing 240M-260M, you could realistically aim for a 15M-25M GP profit window per trade. - **Market Volatility:** The scroll's high buy-in price means margins require patience, as spikes tend to occur following key events. Avoid overbuying during quiet weeks, as liquidity may dry up. #### **Seasonality** 1. **Positive Trends:** - **Post-Dupe Market (Nov-Dec 2024):** As wealth surges during inflation, the value of rare collector items increases. - **Holiday Events (Dec 2024-Jan 2025):** New PVM content announced during these periods frequently correlates with increased demand for ability animations among returning or active players. - **Treasure Hunter Dry Spells:** If Jagex pivots to releasing alternative rewards without directly competing scrolls, prices could steadily rise. 2. **Negative Trends:** - **Treasure Hunter Re-releases:** Jagex occasionally resumes highly sought-after items during event overlap seasons like Easter or Summer, often creating drastic price crashes (20%-50% reductions). - **Major GP Sinks:** If new systems are introduced to counter GP inflation (e.g., new taxes or GP caps), the scroll could temporarily stagnate as liquidity constricts. #### **Similar Items to Consider** 1. **Saradomin Halo Override (God Emissary Event Item):** - Shares high collector demand for niche aesthetic appeal but is currently in lower supply. - Its price tends to move with cosmetics like Frozen Death Skulls. 2. **Reaper’s Scythe Animation Scroll:** - Appeals to the same Halloween/Death-themed cosmetic market. Historically robust pricing, especially post-events. 3. **Necromancer-Themed Items (e.g., Undead Walk Animation):** - Released alongside the recent Necromancy skill increase in 2023, these are highly speculative investments aligned with Frozen Death Skulls buyers. #### **Final Advice** For investors, Frozen Death Skulls represents a premium cosmetic likely to maintain long-term value. Focus your purchases during quiet market periods (~220M buy-in ideal) and hold past the upcoming holiday season for maximum gains. More speculative traders should also consider diversifying into related undead or combat-themed cosmetics that appeal to the same niche audience for hedging short-term risks. Avoid over-investing if a Treasure Hunter re-release becomes likely in mid-2025.