### **Black Christmas Scythe Summary** The Black Christmas Scythe is a cosmetic weapon introduced during the *Black Friday Treasure Hunter Promotion 2024*, which ran from **December 1, 2024, to December 10, 2024**. It was made available in very low quantities as a jackpot item. Unlike previous Treasure Hunter cosmetics, the item has no function in combat but holds immense appeal as a rare and trend-driven collectible. As with many holiday-related limited items in RuneScape, its rarity and desirability combine to drive its long-term value. Due to its exclusivity and potential as both an investment and a prestige display, it quickly became an in-demand rare. The scythe saw immediate distribution in a limited event window, ensuring its rarity. Given historical precedent with items like the Christmas Scythe (2018) and previous holiday rares, the Black Christmas Scythe is poised to become a pseudo-tradable rare with variation in pricing depending on updates and the time of year. --- ### **Release Date: December 1, 2024** - **Acquisition:** Treasure Hunter jackpot only. - **Rarity:** Exceptional. Fewer generated than other Treasure Hunter items due to the short event period and diminishing engagement with end-of-year events. - **Appeal:** Highly aesthetic, consistent thematic association with hoarding rares, and demand peaks near seasonal/holiday markets. --- ### **Rarity & Demand** Dating back to 2018, cosmetic scythes have been highly popular due to their design and limited availability. The Black Christmas Scythe is particularly rare because it was released alongside competing cosmetic jackpots during the **2024 Black Partyhat Promotion**, diverting player attention. Furthermore: - **Competition with Black Partyhat:** Players spent a significant amount of funds and Treasure Hunter keys focused on the legendary Black Partyhat, splitting the playerbase's investments. - **Short Release Interval:** The 10-day promotion reduced supply, as fewer scythes were distributed compared to other rares with broader availability. - **Market Preference:** Cosmetics with thematic ties to past holiday rares have historically experienced robust price floors over time. --- ### **Price Analysis and Prediction** #### **Current Data Trend:** - Recent sales data shows immense volatility in the item’s price. It peaked early at **160M GP (12/15/2024)** before collapsing to **41M GP** later that same day. - Recovery ensued as opportunistic buyers stabilized pricing, with swings between **60M GP and 67M GP on 12/17/2024**. - By 12/20/2024, market stabilization reached ~90M GP, with spikes like **104M GP (12/18/2024)** likely due to heavy holiday trading and renewed interest in Christmas-themed rares. - Ending trend near **86M GP (12/24/2024)** seems reflective of market settling post-speculation. #### **Key Factors Driving Fluctuation:** 1. **Holiday Hype:** Items with seasonal appeal historically spike pre-holiday. This drove early speculative rushes. 2. **Black Partyhat Drain:** The simultaneous release of the Black Partyhat caused cash to exit the economy, leading to price compression as competing items like the scythe adjusted. 3. **Wealth Disparity from Updates:** Previous update-driven exploits (e.g., the **Max Cash Exploit - May 2024**) injected enormous liquidity into the economy, giving high-value item markets a tendency toward exaggerated pricing swings. #### **Prediction (January–March 2025):** Based on historical trends and the rarity mechanics: - The short post-Christmas period usually results in downward adjustment for holiday rares as seasonal demand wanes (e.g., **January 2025 dip: ~70M GP** expected). - Recovery begins early February, as long-term investors reenter the market anticipating price hikes into Spring. - March introduces potential uplift (predicted high range: **120M–130M GP**) as collectors move to secure scythes pre-Easter promotions. Without further re-releases or Jagex-influenced item destabilization, expect the Black Christmas Scythe to stabilize around **95M–110M GP** by Spring 2025. --- ### **Flipping Margins** 1. **Typical Margins:** Data from mid-December suggests active margins of **~2–10M GP** depending on time of day. Specifically: - **12/19–12/20/2024:** Price oscillations between **85M and 94M GP** allowed for consistent flips with 6–9% profit margins. - **Peak Trading Hours (evenings):** Higher prices favored sellers, while early-morning drops (e.g., ~86M GP on 12/18) enabled profitable repurchases. 2. **Optimal Strategy:** Look for drops below **80M GP** during periods of low liquidity (e.g., post-holiday dip mid-January). Resell when short-term speculative players push values closer to **90M GP**. --- ### **Similar Items to Consider** If interested in diversifying investments in the RuneScape rare market, consider: 1. **Black Partyhat:** Released in the same event, the Black Partyhat has extreme rarity and acts as a store of wealth for hyper-rich players. 2. **Christmas Scythe (2018):** Historically, the precursor scythe maintains steady value (~150M GP) with strong buy-ins during December. 3. **Golden Partyhat (2021):** A pseudo-rare that trends upward in holiday seasons, often spiking around March-April post-Easter. 4. **Santa Hat:** Seen consistent returns over decades, typically peaking during Winter promotions and spiking unexpectedly following dupe incidents or Jagex “anti-rare” public statements. --- ### **Seasonal Patterns** 1. **Positive Pricing Factors:** - **December:** Holiday promotional hype drives both valuation and flipping potential. - **March-April:** Post-Easter market speculation, with institutional buyers aiming to secure rares before Spring updates. 2. **Negative Pricing Factors:** - **January-February:** Seasonal crashes; players sell overstocked rares acquired from events. - **June-August (Summer Slump):** Major cash sink updates (e.g., bosses, skill reworks) often deflate cosmetic prices as GP flows into game content. --- ### **Final Thoughts** The Black Christmas Scythe will likely become a sought-after pseudo-rare, especially as fewer are traded over time. For maximized returns, prioritize buying during January lulls and hold through Spring. To reduce portfolio risk, balancing your investments with broader holiday cosmetics (e.g., Golden Partyhats or classic Santa Hats) will enable steady performance amidst RuneScape's volatile economy.