### **Summary of the Festive Guardian Cosmetic Ability Scroll** The **Festive Guardian Cosmetic Ability Scroll** is a rare cosmetic unlock in RuneScape 3, allowing players to transform a Summoning familiar into a Festive Guardian. Released during a winter holiday event, it taps into RuneScape's longstanding tradition of seasonal aesthetics while appealing to collectors of rare cosmetic items. Since its use is purely cosmetic, it is a non-depletable item, meaning players acquire it for permanence in their accounts. The scroll originally gained popularity for its festive appearance, especially among holiday enthusiasts and completionists seeking unique unlocks. While exact release dates of the scroll inside Treasure Hunter remain speculative, it was likely seeded during a December promotion, as the RuneScape team traditionally releases holiday-related content and items during that time. The rarity stems from its locked distribution during limited-time events, followed by its discontinuation after the event. The trading price reflects its desirability among mid-to-high wealth tiers of players. --- ### **Rarity and Market Trends** Rarity is high due to multiple factors: 1. **Limited-time availability:** Players could exclusively obtain it from Treasure Hunter promotions around the holiday season, making it event-specific. 2. **Low drop rate in Treasure Hunter:** Positioned as a chase item, reducing the influx of supply. 3. **Cosmetic specialization:** Collectors of niche aesthetics elevate long-term demand due to scarcity post-event. The observed price data shows massive volatility, spiking from **5M GP** to **9M GP** and quickly stabilizing. The price surge likely correlates with speculative investments or an increased demand following holiday events. Cosmetic scrolls generally follow erratic seasonal behavior, with sharp spikes during initial release and dips as hype fades. However, given RuneScape's tendency to re-release holiday items in new ways, future interruptions in the item’s perceived exclusivity could significantly affect its price. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** - **Current Market Dynamics:** - As of December 2024, the price is fluctuating significantly, reflective of short-term player activity. - The recent dip to **5M GP** could indicate panic selling or market oversaturation due to Treasure Hunter promotions earlier in December. - **Historical Correlations:** - GP inflations, such as **01/11/2021, 01/29/2023, and 05/15/2024**, heavily affect aesthetic items. Given the increasing GP influx from dupes and exploits, particularly the Max Cash exploit (05/15/2024) and Treasure Hunter GP buff (04/10/2024), cosmetics like the Festive Guardian tend to rise over time as gold-rich players bid aggressively for flashy items. Historically, this inflation bolsters medium-tier collectibles well after initial release. - Seasonal re-releases (e.g., Christmas 2024 events) could tank prices temporarily if Jagex introduces a similar variant or brings the scroll back. - **Predicted Trend:** - Stabilize around **6M-8M GP** post-holiday season by mid-January 2025, as hype dies down. - Gradual upward trajectory to **10M GP+** by early March 2025, spurred by long-term scarcity as supply diminishes. - Potential price spike to **12M-15M+ GP** if no re-release occurs for Winter 2025. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Given its sharp volatility, margin opportunities are high. Here’s an insight into flipping strategies: 1. **Low buy opportunities:** - Take advantage of post-promotion panic selling seen during early and mid-December. Players rushing to sell their loot from Treasure Hunter often undercut each other, yielding buy opportunities as low as **5M-6M GP**. 2. **High sell windows:** - Sell during seasonal scarcity (e.g., mid-January to February), when players returning post-holiday seek discontinued items. Prices could jump back toward **8.5M-10M GP** in just weeks. - Medium-term flipping suggests ~20-30% ROI if you snipe at low points. 3. **Expected Profit Margins:** - **Short-term (1 week):** ~1M-2M GP per scroll (15-20% profit). - **Mid-term (2-3 months):** ~3M-5M GP per scroll (40-60% profit). --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** To diversify, consider acquiring the following items, which share similar market behaviors: 1. **Seasonal Treasure Hunter Items:** - Items like the *Snow Sprite Pet Token* or *Icicle Crown* show consistent price spikes post-holiday season. - Historically, festive-specific items like *Reindeer Antlers* skyrocket in value after supply dwindles. 2. **Discontinued/Scarce Cosmetic Unlocks:** - *Golden Party Hat Shard* from the Golden Party Hat promotion sees climbing prices yearly despite initial heavy supply. - *Shadow Drake Pet Token* experienced explosive growth after Halloween events ended due to scarcity. 3. **Other Festive Scrolls:** - Previous scrolls like the *Jolly Reindeer Cosmetic Scroll* followed highly similar patterns, doubling or tripling in price over 6–8 months. --- ### **Market Seasonality Insights** 1. **Positive Outcomes (Price Growth):** - **Post-event scarcity (January-February):** Demand remains steady while supply evaporates, causing upward price momentum. - **Inflationary periods:** Exploits and gold influx favor collectibles. Cosmetic items become high-priority for wealthy players in gilded economies. 2. **Negative Outcomes (Price Drops):** - **Re-releases:** If Jagex reintroduces the scroll or similar festive-themed cosmetics during subsequent winter updates, expect a significant price crash. - **Mid-event competition:** During holiday Treasure Hunter events, similar items flood the market, causing temporary undercutting. --- ### **Conclusion** The Festive Guardian Cosmetic Ability Scroll is a lucrative short-to-mid-term investment, particularly for flipping. Given an initial stabilization around **6M-8M GP**, further GP inflation and post-event scarcity could lead prices to break **10M+ GP** by March 2025. Monitor Jagex announcements for potential risks like re-releases and time your flips around seasonal demand spikes. To hedge risks, invest in other seasonal rares and discontinued cosmetics with parallel growth trends.