### Summary of the Face Paint Token The Face Paint Token, introduced in RuneScape 3 on **January 13, 2021**, is an unlock token granting players thematic face paint customization options for their character. It was first released through **Treasure Hunter** promotions, notably during cosmetic-heavy events tied to seasonal celebrations. Its cosmetic nature ensures lasting interest due to its aesthetic appeal, while a limited release window contributes to its rarity. With intermittent re-releases or Treasure Hunter redistributions, its supply remains constrained compared to demand, particularly from collectors or fashion-oriented players. The token’s rarity stems from its initial scarcity and intermittent fluctuations in demand based on re-releases or external market shifts (often linked to gold-generation exploits). Its price, highly volatile, has ranged anywhere from **3.5M GP to 150M GP**, with significant swings tied to player-made gold influx events and demand resurgence after periods of neglect. --- ### Price Trends and Insights A comprehensive review of historical dips and spikes illustrates that the price of the Face Paint Token closely correlates with in-game economic disruptions: 1. **Early 2021 Price Surge (31M–55M GP)**: Following its release, its price rose rapidly as a coveted cosmetic item that became hard to acquire once off Treasure Hunter. However, the **January rollback dupe** dumped trillions of gold into the game's economy, inflating prices for premium items, including cosmetics. 2. **Post-Dupe Crash (3.5M GP)**: By early 2021, recovery dupes sharply devalued the market as massive inflation met token flooding. This caused the low-end price drop in January 2021. 3. **Gradual Recovery (~30M GP by 2023)**: After the recovery dupe effects waned and stable demand met limited supply, the token returned to ~30M GP. The September release of *Croesus* indirectly reinvigorated cosmetic interest as players gravitated towards activity-related prestige. 4. **2024 Surge (~150M GP in November)**: Following the **Mining and Smithing rework** (August 2024) and **GIM bank bug (November 2024),** Face Paint Tokens become a speculative investment vehicle. High rediscovered interest and limited examples left in circulation magnify demand, driving the price to an all-time high. --- ### Price Prediction (November 2024—Mid-2025) - **Short-Term (Next 3 Months)**: Expect minor retracing to **100M–120M GP**, as profit-takers offload during the post-November demand cooldown. However, an uptick is likely if Jagex ties future Treasure Hunter events or Rare Tokens back to older cosmetic items like the Face Paint Token. - **Mid-Term (6 Months)**: Prices could climb up to **200M+ GP**, depending on upcoming updates scheduled for early 2025. Jagex’s future potential gold sinks or new rarity-driven events will keep investor interest high in limited-run cosmetics. - **Key Risks**: - A direct re-release would crater prices to **~20M–50M GP**, as we saw after prior “redistribution” schemes. - Further macroeconomic exploits or massive new GP influx could inflate market prices broadly while devaluing non-essential, aesthetic-only items. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins For merchants and flippers: - Typical margins hover in the **5-15% range** during steady trade times (e.g., buying at ~110M and selling at ~125M). - During speculative or volatile episodes (e.g., post-major updates), margins expand to **20-30% or more**, particularly for players targeting undervalued tokens from impatient sellers. - Monitor Treasure Hunter announcements; any hint of older cosmetic re-releases will present reselling opportunities on pre-announcement buys and rapid offloading upon market realization. --- ### Similar Items for Portfolio Diversification Consider diversifying with comparable limited-edition cosmetic tokens that share similar economic patterns: 1. **Golden Shattered Anima (Token)**: Fluctuates heavily on hype but retains long-term price growth tied to unlockable prestige value. 2. **Keepsake Keys**: Persistent demand from fashion-oriented players ensures stable profit margins. 3. **Partyhat Redux Tokens (e.g., Christmas or Halloween cosmetics)**: Rare and discontinued seasonal tokens follow parallel appreciation trends after Treasure Hunter events conclude. --- ### Seasonal Performance Insights - **Positive Growth Periods**: - **October–December**: Halloween and Christmas events often stimulate demand for similar legacy cosmetics. - **March–May**: Spring updates historically reintroduce complementary vanity items or gold sinks. - **Negative Growth Periods**: - **Post-Summer (July–August)**: With new skilling meta or expansive updates (like Necromancy), player focus drifts to utility over aesthetics. - **Post-Releases (Reissue Events)**: Announcements of redistributions tank token prices for weeks/months. --- ### Final Strategy Face Paint Tokens have proven their value as semi-passive, cosmetic-oriented assets that consistently appreciate over time barring disruptive updates. Position yourself ahead of speculative waves caused by Treasure Hunter events and major bug fixes. Diversify into related rarity-driven items but sidestep high liquidity categories prone to sudden undercut competition like Protean Packs.