### **Ice Lolly Wand Token Overview** The Ice Lolly Wand Token is a cosmetic Treasure Hunter reward introduced during a summer-themed promotion. It unlocks the Ice Lolly Wand cosmetic override, a tongue-in-cheek representation of a summery wand-shaped lolly that resonated with collectors of novelty RuneScape cosmetics. Its whimsical design and limited availability have bolstered its niche desirability among cosmetic traders and seasonal collectors. #### **Release Date and Context** - **Introduced:** Likely part of a Treasure Hunter promotion circa **Summer 2016-2020** (likely as part of "Beach" events or similar promos). - **Rarity:** Limited distribution during a seasonal event, making it rare yet re-releasable within Treasure Hunter or other seasonal promotions. - **Historical Price Range:** The price trajectory reveals an initial spike after release, subsequent stabilization, and significant volatility as major game economy shifts occurred due to updates like dupe exploits and event-driven buying/selling. --- ### **Historical Insights and Rarity Analysis** Examining the broader price dataset, the Ice Lolly Wand Token demonstrates trends akin to other mid-tier cosmetic tokens: 1. **Initial Release Hype (Early 2021):** With a price peaking at 40M GP in January 2021, the token surged during RuneScape's **rollback dupe** (01/11/2021), when trillions of GP saturated the economy. This brief period saw rapid speculative purchases on rare cosmetics. 2. **Correction Phase:** Following the rollback exploits, prices stabilized but never returned to being ultra-high-end, due to consistent Treasure Hunter injections of mid-rarity tokens. By mid-2021 pricing matched normalized speculation levels of 15M-20M GP. 3. **Prolonged Deflation (2021-2022):** As new content like **Croesus (09/27/2021)** shifted focus towards gameplay items, the wand token lost momentum, deflating to sub-2M GP sustained. Cosmetic tokens historically depreciate if seasonal re-releases or attention diverts towards new areas. 4. **Long-Term Value Plateau (2023+):** Events like **Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022)** drove speculative temporary interest—the token surged back in price as collectors migrated—but broader macroeconomic inflation (bonds/GP prices rising globally) eventually anchored it at ~2M GP from mid-2023. Impacts like **Hero Pass backlash (09/05/2023)** and **Necromancy Skill release (08/07/2023)** showed no direct correlation to cycles like Treasure Hunter token demand. However, periodic Treasure Hunter changes still flag re-release risks that devalue veteran variants like this. --- ### **Price Forecast (Mid-2024 to End-2024)** #### **Key Prediction Factors** - **Dupes and Exploits (Rare Impact):** Post-**Max Cash Update (05/2024)** infusion of trillions from exploiters signals short-medium gold saturation effects. If GP remains abundant, cosmetics like the Ice Lolly Wand may experience temporary surges. - **Treasure Hunter Adjustments:** Jagex continues cycling token re-releases—a reappearance during summer updates (June-August 2024) would predictably dip prices back to 1-1.2M GP as supply increases. Without re-release, speculative demand should push the token to 4M-5M GP by early 2025. - **Player Base Trends:** With player numbers dropping after combat updates (mid-August 2024), niche market cosmetics like novelty wands may cool off slightly. These dynamics heavily favor buyers late 2024. #### **Projected Fluctuations** - **June 2024 (Sanctum of Rebirth):** Summer promotional content could heavily dilute cosmetic token value. Predicted low: **1.0M GP.** - **Q4 2024 Holiday Resurgence:** Luxury cosmetics always peak pre-holidays due to festive buyer mindset. Predicted high: **4.5M GP.** --- ### **Flipping Insights** Ice Lolly Wand Tokens are regarded as a mid-risk flipping item due to demand shifts depending on Treasure Hunter promos and the prevalence of dupe exploits. Margins largely rely on buying during Treasure Hunter re-releases and reselling mid-year or during event-driven seasonal hype. #### **Typical Margins:** - **High Volatility Periods:** 30% profit margins (e.g. buying at 1.2M GP in bulk during seasonal Treasure Hunter influx, flipping at 1.6M-2M+ GP immediately after promotions). - **Stabilization Periods:** 10% profit margins (slow-flip resell peaks around 2.5M-2.8M GP). - **High-Risk Strategy:** Speculate long-term on no re-releases, acquiring below 2M GP and holding for 4M+ GP seasonal cycles. #### **Risks:** - Aggressive token re-releases—Jagex may flood Treasure Hunter promotions during content lulls. Any such influxes can crater short-term pricing. --- ### **Alternative Investment Suggestions** Players seeking flipping profits or diversification should consider similar rarity cosmetic items with seasonal demand. These tokens often mirror the Ice Lolly Wand Token's behavior. #### **Recommended Tokens:** - **Summer Tokens:** - **Coconut Hat Token:** historically popular for its quirky visual appeal. Excellent summer-seasonal synergy with minimal re-releases. - **Beach Ball Token:** Shared demand during summer collectibles. - **Other Seasonal Alternatives:** - **Black Santa Hat Token:** High rarity ensures stable prices during winter promotions. - **Partyhat and Christmas Scarf Token:** Buyout opportunities peak during in-year lulls, profiting in winter. - **Banana Cape Token:** Another novelty tied to summer cycles. --- ### **Seasonal Impact Advice** 1. **Positive Outcomes (Summer/Holidays):** - High demand during summer promotions (June-August) or gift-giving holidays (December). - Cosmetic tokens spike pre-event for vanity collectors. 2. **Negative Outcomes (Q1-Q2):** - Post-holiday surplus and mid-year player attention deficits reduce token interest. - Avoid investing until updates explicitly state the token is not part of rotation. By leveraging these insights, traders can speculate effectively on the Ice Lolly Wand Token while simultaneously diversifying among similarly behaving items.