### Analysis of Cerberus Faulds Token #### Summary and Rarity: The **Cerberus Faulds Token** is a cosmetic override token that unlocks a piece of the Cerberus outfit. Released in early 2021 as part of Treasure Hunter promotions, this token is considered moderately rare. Its initial prevalence was tied to promotional periods, meaning supply spikes happened during events but dwindled significantly afterward. The item capitalizes on its aesthetic appeal, particularly for players who enjoy Cerberus-themed cosmetics—one of the more niche markets compared to general popular outfit tokens. The token's rarity is notable, as it hasn't been re-released frequently through Treasure Hunter or sales (unlike other tokens). When coupled with its peak pricing history, it's clear that the fluctuations have been driven by both demand and extrinsic game economy factors. --- ### Historical Price Trends: - **2021:** Prices were initially erratic, starting near **373k** on **April 3, 2021**, spiking to **353k** but then steadily dropping due to confidence shocks from the **early 2021 dupe exploits (January Rollback/July Recovery).** This influx of gold and tradable items created an inflated MP (market price), with many retiring cosmetics pushed lower due to deflationary momentum. By December 2021, prices stabilized around **225–231k** as gold sinks were successfully implemented. - **2022:** Following the **Duel Arena removal (January 4, 2022)**—a key money sink that affected low-to-mid-level items like tokens—the price dropped further, bottoming out at **113k** in January 2022. Later, **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** reintroduced players into the game with demand increases for such tokens. Despite this, prices fell more sharply, reaching **5k in late December**—likely due to low player confidence and reduced cosmetic interest tied to concurrent updates like Wilderness PvP removal and Fresh Start's bond-hyped competitive economy. - **2023 and Beyond:** The **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)** and subsequent **player hacks (February 2023)** caused hyperinflation, with prices unpredictably spiking to **999k+ in March 2024** as players sought diversification of their gold into items. This spike may align with combat-related updates pushing demand due to speculative purchases. --- ### Price Prediction for Next Few Months: - **July-October 2024:** The **Mining and Smithing rework (August 2024)** and general economic smoothing measures will likely stabilize mid-tier goods. However, tokens such as this will experience minor deflation post-September as speculative buyers move wealth into gold or popular commodities. Expect **Cerberus Faulds Token prices to dip back to ~100k to 200k** in line with historical supply/value trends. - **Seasonality Factors:** Fall content (e.g., **Halloween**) is less kind to niche Treasure Hunter tokens, so expect limited demand and lack of spikes during Q4. However, pre-Holiday inflation could spur brief increases if Jagex announces Festive promotions (December). Long-term, assuming no re-release, prices might stabilize in Q1 2025 at **~150k–180k**, provided no gold or dupe exploits occur. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins: Flipping this token historically yields **~10–20% short-term margins** due to low activity in the trade volume. For example, speculative traders in **March 2023** likely capitalized on margin gaps from **800k–999k.** During low-point dips (e.g., December 2022 at 5k), re-entry and holding over several months during price rebounds would have yielded **~2000% profit margins.** Currently, flipping margins will compress as the market stabilizes. Ideal flipping ranges should focus between **~50k–150k**, targeting seasonal cycles—particularly after high-spender peaks (e.g., Treasure Hunter bundles). --- ### Related Items to Monitor: For similar purchases based on rarity and market trends: 1. **Deathless Regent Shirt Token** - Another obscure Treasure Hunter cosmetic with uniform age and trading volatility. Prices tend to rise alongside Cerberus-themed cosmetics when demand shifts toward collectors’ markets. 2. **Globetrotter Arm Guard Tokens** - Rare Treasure Hunter tokens tied to clue scrolls reliably increase due to relevance across updates incorporating clue-based rewards. 3. **Holiday Rares (e.g., Pumpkin Mask, Snowman Mask)** - Historically perform similarly in terms of speculative rebounds tied to general seasonal activity and trading influxes from duplicate updates. --- ### Seasonal Predictions — Key Tips for Investors: 1. **Positive Outcomes (Token-Friendly Periods):** - **Post-Endgame Content Updates:** Tokens appeal to wealthier players post-dupe events or max-level content updates (e.g., **Necromancy in August 2023**). - **Collector Cycles:** Niche tokens like Cerberus Faulds thrive when fewer cosmetics dominate the spotlight. Off-season acquisition (pre-summer) often yields the best positioning. 2. **Negative Outcomes (Token Struggles):** - **Widespread Promotions:** General Treasure Hunter dumps (e.g., **Golden Promotions**) saturate markets and reduce interest in lesser-token trades. - **Dupes/Inflation:** Any emergent gold-generating exploits devalue mid-tier vanity tokens as wealthy players seek hard-investment assets instead. --- By leveraging the volatility and seasonality of cosmetics like the **Cerberus Faulds Token**, investors should focus on speculative purchases at **seasonal low points (100–150k)** while offloading inventory within economic recovery cycles or prior to high-profile TH events.