### **Deep Analysis of the Christmas Tree Kite** #### **Summary and Rarity** The Christmas Tree Kite is a discontinued holiday-themed cosmetic kite that was first introduced during the 2021 Christmas event in Treasure Hunter. As with many Treasure Hunter seasonal items, supply was artificially limited, primarily targeting collectors and casual players looking for festive accessories. Despite its initial peak in value due to scarcity, its ongoing price behavior reflects RuneScape’s fluctuating economy and periodic redistributions of wealth through dupes and updates. Its rarity lies in both its exclusivity to a particular Treasure Hunter event and its non-combat nature, making it a "niche" collectible. While highly sought after during its prime release window, it has gradually decreased in desirability among the high-tier rare item collectors. However, its nostalgic association could make it an attractive speculative investment as RuneScape players historically pivot toward holiday-themed items during festive months. #### **Price Prediction and Analysis** Using the provided price data and considering RuneScape's broader economic history: - **Initial Overvaluation (Jan 2021 - Early 2022):** The kite debuted during a time when wealth inequality in RuneScape was exacerbated by the **2021 rollback dupe** and the subsequent influx of duped wealth. Prices initially spiked at **18-19M GP** as speculative investments and inflated wealth led to excessive spending on all rare and cosmetic items. However, liquidity issues and player confidence plummeted following Jagex’s adjustments in **early 2022**. - **Steady Decline (Mid-2022 to August 2023):** The kite’s price gradually trended downward, reaching **1.3M - 1.7M GP** by **2023 mid-year**. Key contributing events include the removal of the **Duel Arena** (which destabilized gold sinks) and the **Fresh Start Worlds** introduction, which shifted spending habits to account for item stagnation in the main game. - **Chaos and Recovery (Late 2023 to Mid-2024):** The **Hero Pass backlash (September 2023)** caused massive market skepticism, reflected by a further dip into the hundreds-of-thousands GP range. Subsequent exploits (e.g., **Easter Egg dupe in April 2024** and the **Max Cash exploit in May 2024**) heavily diluted wealth, causing speculative investments in underpriced items like the kite. By **September 2024**, the kite reached a **16.5M GP** resurgence, reflecting opportunistic buyouts and holiday-season hype. **Predicted Price Trend (Next Few Months):** - **Q4 2024 (Festive Season):** Expect single-digit percentage gains in **November - December 2024**, driven by increased demand for holiday wearables alongside the release of other cosmetics (e.g., Black Partyhat). - **Target price range:** 18-22M GP by December 2024. - **Q1 2025:** Decline is likely post-holiday, settling between **10M to 13M GP**, as speculative demand fades and the market absorbs oversupply. #### **Factors to Watch:** 1. **Treasure Hunter Changes:** If a similar kite or holiday item is released, the kite’s uniqueness could erode, leading to price stagnation. 2. **Major Gold Sinks:** Should Jagex introduce mandatory GP sinks (e.g., **taxation on Grand Exchange transactions**), rare item prices may surge as they often function as de facto GP storage assets. 3. **Economic Exploits:** Future dupes, exploits, or account-breach-related chaos would trigger another crash and recovery cycle. --- #### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Christmas Tree Kite provides healthy flipping opportunities during market volatility but suffers from smaller profit margins during mid-term price stability. Typical flipping data: - **Low Volatility Periods:** Margins of **3%-6%** per trade can be expected, especially between weekly Treasure Hunter resets. - **High Volatility Events:** Margins climb to **8%-12%**, as mass buying or panic selling creates gaps in buy and sell offers. For example: - **Q3 2024 spike to 16.5M GP:** Proper anticipation netted some flippers comfortable 2M+ GP quickturns per item. #### **Advice on Similar Items** For broader diversification across rare and holiday-themed RuneScape items, consider investing in items that share the following traits: 1. **Failing Popularity with Timed Demand:** - Examples: **Christmas Scythe** or **Santa Suit**, which typically spike during Christmas or other holiday events. 2. **Multi-Year Nostalgia Factor:** - Items like the **Black Partyhat (2023)** or **Golden Cracker (2021)** have demonstrated rapid rises due to collector interest. 3. **Underutilized Cosmetics:** - **Turkeys from Thanksgiving events** and **Fireworks Cosmetic Overrides** share similar niche appeal and follow a price trajectory with low liquidation risk. --- #### **Seasonal Insights for Positive/Negative Price Outcomes** - **Positive Outcomes:** - **Late November - Early January (Holiday Events):** Holiday cosmetics like the Christmas Tree Kite shine during this period. Speculation, combined with aggressive marketing for Treasure Hunter, drives seasonal cosmetics into higher-price brackets. - **Event Reliant Reintroduction Threats (Minimal):** Items unlikely to be re-released as rewards (**e.g., pre-Treasure Hunter partyhats**) command markups. - **Negative Outcomes:** - **February-May (Post-Holiday Crash):** This period typically sees rare item dips due to reduced holiday demand and player-base contraction in post-festive months. - **During GP Duplication Exploits or Treasure Hunter Bombing Events:** A surge of cheap re-released items floods the Grand Exchange, resetting the price of exclusives. --- ### **Conclusion** Careful flipping of the Christmas Tree Kite could yield medium-term trading profits leading into Q4 2024, with diminishing gains post-holiday. For diversification, pursue other rare seasonal items with strong holiday demand. Be vigilant of incoming economic shifts like exploits or forced GP sinks, which will open new speculator-driven opportunities.