### **Deep Analysis: Fortune Cape Token** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The Fortune Cape Token is a cosmetic token first introduced via Treasure Hunter in **October 2020**, granting players the prestigious Fortune Cape cosmetic override. This item is highly sought by fashion-scapers but has a niche market due to its purely cosmetic role. Initially available during its release period, its scarcity stems from being a limited-time item, compounded by fluctuating supplies due to Treasure Hunter promotions and subsequent buyouts by collectors or flippers. While moderately rare, it's not in the top tier of discontinued wearables from Treasure Hunter, like *Prismatic Dye* or *Death Lotus Tokens*. However, its recognizable design and rarity have ensured some degree of steady demand over time. --- #### **Historical Price Analysis** From the provided data and correlation to in-game events, we can glean several interesting insights: 1. **2021 Price Surge and Collapse:** - The Fortune Cape Token's value peaked in January 2021 at **10M GP** following its removal from Treasure Hunter. Its meteoric rise stemmed from the **rollback dupe on 01/11/2021**, which injected trillions of GP into the economy, inflating all rare and cosmetic item prices. However, prices tumbled to **3.5M GP by 01/09/2021**, as gold lost value rapidly and Treasure Hunter oversupply corrected the market. 2. **2021's Croesus Update (September):** - The price notably spiked to **5M GP on 09/10/2021** before crashing to **2.4M GP by 09/27/2021** during the *Croesus* release wave. This can be attributed to increased player activity for the new boss while older cosmetics were sold off to fund upgrades, causing a temporary oversupply. 3. **Post-Duel Arena Ban (2022):** - With the January 2022 removal of the *Duel Arena* and its associated staking economy, prices dipped below the **3M GP floor**, stabilizing at around **2.1M GP** later that month. This suggests diminished liquidity for high-value items, forcing holders to sell faster. 4. **2024 Low Point:** - By early February 2024, the token's price sank to **1.7M GP**, its lowest since 2021. This can be linked to significant GP injections from *Treasure Hunter*, new player hacks (introducing rare banked items to the market), and increasing competition from newer or malleable cosmetic rewards (e.g., the *Black Partyhat* and Easter Tokens). --- #### **Price Prediction (2024 - 2025)** Given the gradual decline over the years and correlation to major RuneScape updates, the **Fortune Cape Token is unlikely to regain its 2021 highs** without a major game-changing development. However, here's a forecast: 1. **Short-Term (2-3 Months):** - With updates like *Sanctum of Rebirth* (07/22/2024) or seasonal events (e.g., Halloween), players will focus their spending elsewhere, keeping prices around **1.6M - 2.0M GP**. Backlash tied to the *Max Cash Exploit* means high-end demand may remain subdued. 2. **Medium-Term (6-12 Months):** - As supply dwindles from casual resellers and Treasure Hunter promo fatigue sets in, prices could recover to **2.5M - 3M GP** if no sudden economy-breaking events occur. This range assumes modest buyout speculation from flippers. 3. **Long-Term (1+ Year):** - The token's price may stabilize between **3M - 4M GP**, emulating other similar discontinued Treasure Hunter cosmetics that consistently regain value after periods of deflation. Unpredictable factors like another massive dupe, exciting promotional rewards, or disruptive updates could alter this trajectory. --- #### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Fortune Cape Token historically exhibits **flipping margins of 200K to 500K GP** during periods of moderate volatility. This is due to its niche appeal: high enough demand to guarantee buyers but not so competitive as to erode margins. - **Optimal Strategy:** Focus on buy-ins during GP inflations (e.g., post-*Treasure Hunter GP promos* or *holiday events*). Sell into recovery periods when scarcity increases interest, such as after inactivity from Treasure Hunter highlights or during seasonal buyouts (e.g., Christmas/New Year). --- #### **Similar Items to Invest In** For those seeking to diversify or hedge investments, here are comparable items with aligned price behaviors: 1. **Death Lotus Token:** - Another rare Treasure Hunter reward with cosmetic appeal. Historically follows similar recovery trends but peaks higher due to its more "combat-enhanced" visual design. 2. **Discontinued Skilling Outfits (e.g., Fisherman's Outfit):** - These are in limited supply, appeal to skilling players, and get periodic demand boosts when skilling reworks (like the upcoming *Mining and Smithing Update*) encourage skill-focused purchasing. 3. **Seasonal Fashion Tokens (e.g., Winter Chill Cape Token):** - These tokens spike aggressively closer to holidays (e.g., Christmas), providing short-term flipping opportunities. --- #### **Seasonal Price Trends** 1. **Positive Momentum:** - **Late Winter/Early Spring (Feb - April):** - Players cash out Treasure Hunter winnings from holiday events, lowering supply and creating room for gradual value climbs. - **October - December (Holiday Season):** - Speculation and buyouts skyrocket fashion tokens as collectors and investors bet on rising cosmetic demand. 2. **Negative Momentum:** - **Summer Declines (June - August):** - Activity dips slightly, with a preference for gameplay-related GP spending, often leading to cosmetic sell-offs. - **Major GP Injections (Post-Treasure Hunter Promos):** - Tokens are heavily dumped during periods of fast liquidations, such as after Treasure Hunter gold or promo giveaways. By focusing on these nuances, traders can capitalize effectively on market fluctuations, aligning speculative decisions with notable RuneScape events.