### Summary of the Bloodtusk Warlord Upper Body - **Release Date**: Early 2021 during the Yak Track "Battle of the Monolith" cosmetic rewards. - **Rarity**: This item is part of the Yak Track reward structure and considered uncommon because cosmetics tied to Yak Tracks are often locked behind time-limited progression systems. Its availability is further restricted since resupply or direct re-release of the exact Yak Track rewards rarely happens. - **Unique Appeal**: It fits the Bloodtusk Warlord set, which is themed around tribal and battle-worn aesthetics, earning a niche but dedicated following among collectors who appreciate lore-heavy appearances. --- ### Deep Analysis of Historical Pricing and Influences The pricing history of the item shows **unusual volatility** for a purely cosmetic piece, indicating its price is influenced heavily by gold influxes, macroeconomic RuneScape events, and less so by functional value: 1. **Early Spike (January 2021)**: It briefly peaked at **4.85M on Jan 11, 2021**, coinciding with the infamous rollback dupe, which flooded the market with trillions of GP. Cosmetics tend to inflate sharply during gold oversupply as casual players buy them for vanity. 2. **Decline (Mid 2021)**: Prices fell to as low as **751K** in June-July 2021. This corresponds to the player-driven correction after the dupe recovery, compounded by a rising surplus of Yak Track cosmetics becoming resold on the Grand Exchange. 3. **Stability Surge (2022)**: The price stayed around **2.4M to 2.8M** during the Croesus boss release and Fresh Start Worlds (late 2022). These events brought new or returning players, driving limited demand for cosmetic items. Additionally, Duel Arena's removal (Jan 2022) decreased GP-generating scams, stabilizing GP circulation. 4. **Recent Fluctuations (2023-2024)**: - A striking peak occurred at **5M GP** briefly in February 2024. The significance of this spike aligns with late-stage pre-announcements of the combat update (March 2024) hyping demand for niche items as collectors sought unique, legacy assets. - The price dropped to **1.75M in early February 2024**, likely tied to the **bond price increases** and **Easter dupes** which normalized excess GP, reducing vanity spending. --- ### **Price Prediction (Mid-2024 to Year End)**: - **Mid-2024 (June-August)**: - Expect the item to hover between **1.5M-2.2M GP** during midyear. Major updates like the **Sanctum of Rebirth (July)** and **Mining and Smithing rework (August)** will likely shift player focus to functional content. This leaves cosmetics niche but stable, as GP is reinvested into progression-based purchases. - **Late 2024 (October-December)**: - Price could **rise modestly to 3M-4M GP**, especially after the fallout of the **GIM bank dupes (November 2024)**. By this point, the increased gold circulation will likely boost vanity trading again. December is also typically fueled by seasonal demand for collectibles ahead of winter sales and holiday rewards. **Verdict**: The item will likely stabilize over time due to its Yak-Track exclusivity but should still experience surges tied to gold flooding or new player expansions (e.g., Fresh Start Worlds-like events). --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** - During stability periods, flipping margins average **200K-500K per item**, depending on trading volume. - Key flipping periods include spikes during **holiday events** (when casual players buy cosmetics) and **post-update gold influxes** (when vanity item demand surges). *Advice*: Monitor for fluctuations triggered by Treasure Hunter gold rewards, holiday sales, and major bug/exploit fixes that introduce temporary panic selling. --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** 1. **Other Yak Track Exclusives**: - Examples: *Lustrous Cavalier, Verdant Robe Top, Nightmire Armor*. Yak Track-related cosmetics are generally solid medium- to long-term investments due to their rarity and limited timing of availability. 2. **Legacy Vanity Items**: - **2013 SGS Armours**: Limited Supremacy and Infinity robes/similar discontinued cosmetics are often safe bets for price spikes around GP dupe influxes and major seasonal events. 3. **Global Event Exclusives**: - Focus on items tied to specific Jagex marketing events. Examples: *Golden Partyhat Shards or Yak Coins.* --- ### **Seasonal Patterns for Price Variations** 1. **Positive Seasons**: - **Winter (November-January)**: Festive trading sees demand for cosmetics spike. - **Post-update periods**: Especially after economy-boosting updates with GP generation. 2. **Negative Seasons**: - **Spring (March-May)**: Gameplay-focused updates often overtake cosmetic markets, reducing flipping potential temporarily. - **Post-rework stability periods**: Items like the Warlord Upper Body become overshadowed when new utility-driven gear or content reworks dominate interest (e.g., upcoming Mining/Smithing rework). --- **Final Advice**: If flipping, monitor daily spikes during content updates. For long-term holding, stake on rare legacy items like Bloodtusk Warlord Upper Body during market crashes or post-update sell-offs and aim to cash out during holiday-driven mini-bubbles.