### **1. Summary of the Apple Parasol** The Apple Parasol is a discontinued, cosmetic item first released during the September 2020 Treasure Hunter promotion, "Tanabata Wishes." As an exclusive prize during that event, it was one of several parasols introduced as part of the promotion's Japanese festival theme. The item is purely cosmetic, allowing players to flaunt it as a unique fashion-scape piece, popular among rare-item collectors because of its limited availability. Its rarity stems from its brief release period on Treasure Hunter and the absence of subsequent re-releases. Unlike other discontinued items like partyhats or H'ween masks, the parasols lack historical prestige but still occupy an important niche within the modern rare-item market. --- ### **2. Historical Price Analysis and Key Drivers** The Apple Parasol has demonstrated significant price volatility since its release. Here's a breakdown of its price trajectory and correlations with game events: - **Initial Pricing (2020 – 2021):** - Stabilized in the 35M–55M GP range upon release. Early events like the "rollback dupe" in January 2021 introduced trillions of GP into the economy, inflating demand for discontinued items, pushing its price upwards to ~67M in February 2021. - Declined back to a lower range (~38M) by mid-2021 due to market over-saturation from Treasure Hunter updates and diminishing player interest. - **Stabilization (Late 2021 – Early 2023):** - Price rises were seen following Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022), due to returning players chasing collectibles. - Growth slowed in early 2023 during the "700B Scrimshaw dupe" and hacking scandal (player wealth diminished or hoarded items). Peak around 125M in January 2023. - **Recent Growth Explosions (Mid 2023 – 2024):** - Prices spiked sharply during Summer 2024. Events like **Necromancy (August 2023)** and Treasure Hunter GP incentives (April 2024) likely redirected purchases away from parasols temporarily, causing modest retracement drops. - Rising regularity of dupes (May 2024 Max Cash exploit and beyond) seems to have fueled speculative collector demand for items considered "safe stores of wealth." Hitting 200M in September 2024 aligns closely with such trends, though resale dipped to ~111M by December after newer rares like the **Black Partyhat** captured attention. --- ### **3. Price Prediction (Next 3–6 Months)** **Short-term (3 months):** - Expect gradual recovery to **135M–150M GP** by March/April 2025. GIM bank glitches and prior dupes have introduced excess GP, creating renewed demand for assets like the Apple Parasol as inflation hedges. - Seasonal volatility from Treasure Hunter updates (often in January/February) may temporarily depress demand, but historical trends indicate a baseline price floor near 110M. **Mid-term (6 months):** - By mid-2025, **170M–200M GP** is plausible if no new parasol re-release occurs. The rare collector market thrives on limited-supply conditions, and the parasol's attractive price point (compared to rares like Black Santa) makes it an accessible investment for mid-tier players/speculators. **Risks to upward momentum:** - Jagex re-releasing the parasol or adding a similar cosmetic could tank its price under 100M GP. - A further gold-entry-point inflation crisis (e.g., Treasure Hunter exploit) might reduce the item's desirability due to excessive market overflow in wealth. --- ### **4. Flipping Margins** The Apple Parasol is a moderately liquid rare with a niche collector's market, making it ideal for mid-tier flippers. Below are typical flipping behaviors: - **Average Margin:** **8M–12M GP per trade.** - Current buy/sell dissonance (~7–8%) allows consistent flipping profits between 110M–125M GP sessions lasting 1–2 days. - **High-Volatility Margin Opportunities:** - Sudden speculative bidding, like the September 2024 spike (200M), creates ultra-wide gaps for investors. Purchases during short-term price overcorrections typically net margins as high as **25M – 35M GP.** ### Advice: - Aim to buy whenever broader GP-fueled inflations (post-dupe economies) dip prices towards **110M**, offload around bursts tied to updates or rewards (e.g., treasure key events). --- ### **5. Similar Investment Items** For investors diversifying beyond the Apple Parasol, consider the following items with parallel pricing trends and complementary roles in inflation hedging or fashion-scape appeal: 1. **Choco Cupcake Hat** - A discontinued Treasure Hunter item with a vibrant aesthetic, demonstrating similar speculative growth and resilience. (Current floor: ~90M GP.) 2. **Rabbit Foot Necklace** - Another limited-run cosmetic, ideal as a mid-tier alternative. It's remained stable ~60M GP, making it easier to liquidate. 3. **Classic Parasol Variants (Pear, Plum, Cherry)** - Collectors often desire full sets. Tactically monitor markets for undercut parasol sales, leveraging bundled flips to maximize profits. --- ### **6. Seasonal Behavior: Positive vs. Negative Price Outcomes** - **Positive Price Movements:** - **Post-Treasure Hunter/Reward reworks (Spring/Summer):** Items like the parasol thrive after players expend excess GP on reinvestment cycles. - Limited expansions (announcements of no re-releases) bolster rarity interest. - **Negative Price Outcomes:** - **Late Winter (Dec–Feb):** Jagex often reintroduces limited-time items in various forms via treasure keys, destabilizing certain rare categories temporarily. This seasonality provides reliable windows for short-term flipping exits during highs or patient accumulation during dips. --- Leveraging historical patterns and seasonal awareness is key for successful handling of Apple Parasol and similar investments.