### **Dwellberry Parasol: Summary and Rarity** The Dwellberry Parasol is a rare cosmetic item introduced during Treasure Hunter promotional events, typically tied to seasonal content or limited-time festive activities. As a cosmetic parasol, its appeal is primarily fashion-scape, making it desirable to collectors or players looking for high-status appearance items. The item is no longer obtainable directly outside of secondary means, such as the Grand Exchange or player trades, making it increasingly rare over time. **Release Date:** Initially introduced around 2018's seasonal events but with limited re-releases through promos until about 2022. **Rarity:** The item remains sparsely available on the Grand Exchange due to its exclusivity and its position as a prestige cosmetic, enhanced by the fact it has not been obtainable in recent Treasure Hunter promotions. --- ### **Price Analysis and Historical Insights** Here's a breakdown of significant price movements and key insights from the data: 1. **Trends:** - The Dwellberry Parasol experienced oscillating prices due to fluctuating interest and GP influx events (e.g., dupes and updates introducing inflation). - Spiked prices around **April 2022** (33.7M) during the Treasure Hunter rarity boom and speculation-driven demand, followed by dips as demand ebbed due to new content stealing attention (such as Fresh Start Worlds in September 2022). - Significant price crash following the **January 2023 scrimshaw dupe** caused hyperinflation across the economy, coupled with periodic market destabilization due to player hacks in early 2023. - Recent high (2024-09-19) at **26.9M** could signal renewed interest or drops in availability due to fewer sellers, exceeding a low of 11.28M in May 2024—a potential result of the **Max Cash exploit** flooding liquidity into high-ticket items. 2. **Market Influences:** - **Inflationary Periods:** Dupes like the January 2023 scrimshaw issue caused an influx of GP, leading to artificial price inflation across rare cosmetics. This often results in temporary high prices but also causes exaggerated volatility. - **Content Updates:** Seasonal content releases, like Necromancy, Wilderness rework, and easter-based Treasure Hunter events (April 2024), typically lead to minor cosmetic demand shifts while flooding the market with GP that players use to buy discontinued items. - **Player Fatigue:** The Hero Pass backlash and frequent content issues drive player burnout, reducing active trading time on collectible cosmetics. --- ### **Price Prediction (Q4 2024 to Q1 2025)** Given historical trends and the current economy, the Dwellberry Parasol's price will likely follow this pattern: - **Q4 2024:** Expect a **slight drop** in the short term (22-24M range) due to the recent influx of GP through the GIM dupe bug (November 2024), which could chase other high-demand rares. - **Q1 2025:** - If no major GP influx occurs (e.g., non-flooded Treasure Hunters), scarcity may drive prices back to the **27M+ high.** - However, if another economy-breaking event arises (e.g., holiday exploits or Treasure Hunter expansions featuring parasol-like replacements), prices could fall toward **18-20M**. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Dwellberry Parasol has highly volatile flipping potential for seasoned merchants: 1. **Short-Term Flipping Margin:** ~5-8M potential (est. 20-25% ROI) during content-driven hype waves, especially after Treasure Hunter GP introductions. Example: Buy during dips (~11-16M in April/May 2024) and resell during stabilized post-hype markets (26M in September 2024). 2. **Risk Considerations:** The parasol is subject to speculative bubbles. Avoid heavy stockpiling when a negative trend (e.g., dupes, oversized promotions) looms. --- ### **Comparable Items** To diversify portfolio investments alongside the Dwellberry Parasol: 1. **Gemstone Parasol:** Similar cosmetic-item collectors target this, with lower popularity but sustainable margins due to being undervalued compared to the Dwellberry. 2. **Elder Divination Outfit Pieces:** These cosmetics are historically stable when GP rises. 3. **Partyhat and Other Tokens:** Always a strong-performing, high-GP sink collectible with a more dramatic price trend. --- ### **Best Seasonal Buy/Sell Strategy** 1. **Positive Outcomes (Q4-Festive Events):** - **November-December:** Cosmetics surge during holidays as players pursue fashion-scape; prices stabilize upwards. - **April Seasonal Reset:** GP flush due to TH eggs boosts collectible item sales. 2. **Negative Outcomes:** - **January-May:** Post-New Year market stagnation (players cash out GP for bonds) and economic crashes (bind dupes, patches). *Optimal Buying Period:* January to February dips post-content exhaustion periods. --- The **Dwellberry Parasol** remains both a speculative and alluring long-term hold for mid-tier merchants, combining cosmetic rarity with seasonal volatility. By aligning purchases with event patterns and GP sinks, you can secure impressive flipping outcomes with reduced risk.