### Clover Axe Token: Analysis, History, and Insights #### **Summary** - **Release Date**: January 2021, as part of the Clover event for Treasure Hunter. - **Function/Purpose**: Unlocks a cosmetic override that transforms axes into the Clover Axe—a visually appealing, luck-themed item. Purely cosmetic with no gameplay advantages. - **Rarity**: Initially considered uncommon but dropped significantly in rarity due to Treasure Hunter re-releases and subsequent dupe glitches. - **Current State**: The item is historically volatile, with exaggerated spikes and dips that correlate with game updates and economy-focused patches/events. --- #### **Historical Price Analysis** - **January 2021**: Token debuts at **1.8M–1.775M GP**. The high initial value reflects its demand as a cosmetic alongside speculation from Treasure Hunter followers. The massive GP injection from the **01/11/2021 rollback dupe** exacerbated token price increases further. - **March 18, 2021**: Stabilizes slightly around **1.775M**—post-valued scarcity. - **Mid-May 2021**: Prices **drop to 12,600–140,000 GP**. This aligns with Treasure Hunter promotions that reintroduced the token, overinflating supply. Simultaneously, player interest shifted toward Croesus' early teases. - **July–September 2021**: Slight bump (peaked at **1.95M GP** in mid-September 2021) correlates with Croesus' hype (release date: **09/27/2021**), as players cashed out to fund PVM equipment, artificially creating demand for lower-cost rares. - **2022 Developments**: - After the **01/04/2022 Duel Arena removal**, Clover Axe Token saw another downturn, hitting **85K GP in August 2022**. This drop reflects reduced wealth circulation among maxed accounts reliant on staking profits. - The **09/22/2022 Fresh Start Worlds introduction** encouraged token flipping strategies, creating significant price fluctuations where opportunistic purchasing and resales occurred. - **2023 and Beyond**: - Largely stagnant during **Wilderness PvP Removal (2022)** and **Necromancy skill launch (2023)**. Demand remained muted as key players were more interested in training gear and game-breaking updates. - **Hero Pass backlash (09/05/2023)**: Did not directly impact token prices. However, secondary market trends showed spikes as some players focused on collectibles rather than short-term GP floating. --- #### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months, 2024–2025)** Using historical data alongside manipulation trends: - **Short-Term Price (3–6 months)**: - Slight **uptrend to 200K–400K GP**—a rise fueled by the upcoming novelty surrounding **RuneScape's Easter events (April)**, where interest in cosmetic overrides and collectibles tends to spike. Successive Treasure Hunter gold sinks will likely stabilize gold inflation, increasing confidence in manipulating low-tier items like the Clover Axe Token. - **Long-Term Price (12+ months)**: - **Downside risks remain significant** due to the potential reintroduction of Treasure Hunter events or overstock. A likely floor around **50K–150K GP** could emerge in late 2024 or 2025 as newer cosmetics dominate attention, pushing older cosmetics into obsolescence. Potential External Influence: - **06/25/2024 Bond Price Increase**: Likely triggers upward speculation due to GP redistribution as fewer bonds means reduced GP sinks. - **Runecrafting and Smithing Rework (August 2024)**: Secondary market demand could rise if clover aesthetics play into related promotional themes. - **Duplication Incidents (Unpredictable)**: Any dupe impacting Treasure Hunter tokens directly could lead to supply oversupply, plummeting prices as short-selling intensifies. --- #### **Typical Flipping Margins** - **Current Optimal Margin**: ~10K–50K GP per flip. The token’s relative illiquidity makes it a less attractive item for frequent high-margin trading compared to more liquid cosmetics (e.g., Black Santa Hats or elite skilling sets). - Recommended flipping strategies in markets like these include: - **Buying Below 75K GP** (potential upward demand post-update news). - Utilize **seasonal demand surges** (e.g., March–May Treasure Hunter activity increases prices by 20–40%). --- #### **Similar Items to Monitor** 1. **Golden Rose Token**: - Similarly cosmetic, tied to seasonal themes. - Prices show parallels with Clover Axe Token during cross-promotions. 2. **Aurora Dye**: - Considered for its volatile Treasure Hunter accessibility. - Crafted and cosmetic market overlaps support predictability. 3. **Leprechaun Hat Token**: - Directly tied to the same Saint Patrick’s Day theme. Price movements mirror Clover-related updates. 4. **Skilling Outfit Tokens**: - Expensive collector demands surge seasonally, closely mirroring Clover token rebounds during bank update months. --- #### **Seasonality Insights** - **Positive Price Trends**: - **March–May (Spring)**: Luck and cosmetic-related promotions (e.g., Easter events, St. Patrick’s Day celebrations). - **December–January**: Holiday-themed Treasure Hunter additions create heightened scarcity perception. - **Negative Price Trends**: - **September–October**: Treasure Hunter’s general pivot favors Halloween and Necromancy-promotions; hence, clover-related items lose attention. - **Immediately Post-Promotions**: Any re-release drastically reduces token value, as seen mid-2021 and again in 2022. In conclusion, the Clover Axe Token represents a volatile, low-capacity item tethered heavily to Treasure Hunter cycles, with pronounced flipping windows during cosmetic-themed updates and strong long-term risks tied to re-releases.