### **Deep Analysis: Guildmaster Tony's Mattock**
#### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity**
Guildmaster Tony's Mattock is Tier 99 and one of the finest tools for Archaeology in RuneScape 3. Comparable to an endgame weapon for gatherers, it provides the best precision and focuses bonuses in its class, essential for high-level excavation. It stands out because it’s craftable but gated behind significant time investment and high-level Archaeology training. To acquire it, players must obtain the rare Inquisitor's Staff piece drops during Arch-Glacor encounters, requiring additional grind beyond training the skill itself. This combination ensures its prestige and value. It was released with Archaeology on **March 30, 2020**, immediately becoming the most sought-after mattock.
Its scarcity stems from its high crafting costs, relatively low popularity of Archaeology among average players compared to combat, and its place as a niche item—a result of RS3’s diverse player progression paths. Consequently, it occupies a unique position as both a collector’s item and a practical tool for top-end Archaeology, paralleling items like Masterwork equipment in other skills.
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#### **Price History and Trends**
The item's prices since 2021 have shown a heavily speculative and volatile trend, influenced more by large-scale macroeconomic events in RuneScape, like dupes, system exploits, and Jagex’s Treasure Hunter monetization, than by solely its performance within the Archaeology skill:
1. **2023 Price Spikes:**
- A sudden hike reaching **7.575b (May 2023)** was driven by *scrimshaw duplication* and *partyhat lures* introducing massive liquidity into the game. Following Necromancy’s release (August 2023), general wealth redistribution caused demand to decline slightly and prices to recede under 4b by year-end.
2. **2024’s Rebound and Vulnerability:**
- Its **March low of 2.2b** coincided with Spring’s combat rework (drawing players away from skilling) and was compounded by GP being dumped into the economy from repeated *dupe exploits* near Easter. However, by Q3 2024, a surge in Mining & Smithing rework hype indirectly affected Archaeology interest. Combining new players entering skilling alongside inflation, Mattock saw a sharp upward reassessment, peaking at **5.5b (September).**
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#### **Price Prediction for Q4 2024 & Q1 2025**
Based on historical correlations between updates impacting liquidity (e.g., dupes, Treasure Hunter changes), and item scarcity aging into demand for ranks like Completionist Cape owners:
1. **Upward Forces:**
- Continued growth of Archaeology interest from players seeking passive profits via Artefact restoration.
- *Treasure Hunter GP inflations*, especially linked to Seasonal and Holiday monetization events (December 2024), ensuring liquid excess funds bolster high-value items.
- Q1 2025 may align with Jagex’s narrative updates or further Archaeology-linked perk overhauls.
2. **Downward Forces:**
- Jagex aggressively battling RS3’s inflationary issues may push price corrections (e.g., additional gold sinks or scaling repeatable bosses lowering crafting costs).
- Economic uncertainty around sudden *PVM exploitations or next duping spree.*
Overall, **prices are expected to gravitate between 5.2-6.5b by April 2025**, particularly given the item’s consolidation as best-in-slot.
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#### **Typical Flipping Margins**
The Guildmaster Tony’s Mattock operates in a high-stakes area of the market, where flipping requires patience, timing, and large GP reserves:
1. **Sell/Buy Spread:**
- Institutional-merchants often see ±5% margins during quiet periods where liquidity stagnates.
- Significant short-term exploitable gaps emerge when macro-update announcements catch attention (spreads as high as ±10-15% occur during Treasure Hunter promos).
2. **Strategy Example:**
- *Seasonal flipping*: Buying after Treasure Hunter/reward-themed giveaways crash prices (e.g., May 2024 dupes; Black Partyhat crash Nov 2023) for subsequent November-December demand recovery.
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#### **Similar Items to Watch**
To mitigate risk over any one skilling niche, consider parallels in comparable niches:
1. **Dragon Slayer Lance (T85) / Eldritch Crossbow:**
- Tradeable tools for gathering-oriented bosses (Croesus-like spikes in Wilderness spikes low-risk.)
2. **Sapphire / Joker Jewel perks uncharged rare-hybrid Flexible metas attached Mattock
Ely Intelligence Analysis