### **Blightbound Crossbow: Deep Analysis**
**Summary and Rarity**:
The Blightbound Crossbow is an elite main-hand ranged weapon introduced as a high-tier dual-wield option in RuneScape 3. Released on **16 December 2019**, it drops from **Raksha, the Shadow Colossus**, a high-difficulty boss that often requires advanced mechanics to farm effectively. Combined with its drop rarity, this aligns the item as a "prestige weapon." Popular particularly among experienced PvM players using high-end setups, its value is heavily influenced by PvM meta changes, boss farming efficiency, and the introduction of newer combat mechanics.
### **Price Behavior and Historical Context**
---
#### **Price Timeline and Insights**:
1. **Initial Spike (2021) to Oversaturation**:
- The crossbow peaked early at over 1 billion GP in **late 2021**, likely due to Gold Duplication rollbacks inflating player cash stacks. Around Croesus's **09/27/2021 release**, its priced softened gradually as players switched to new strategies favoring hybrid setups.
2. **Duel Arena Removal & Economy Rebalancing (2022)**:
- With the **Duel Arena's removal on 01/04/2022**, the sudden influx of GP previously locked in gambling cycles collapsed speculative demand for high-end items like the Blightbound. The resulting stabilization caused prices to dip further, with **Fresh Start Worlds** (09/2022) amplifying GP sinks that throttled excessive liquidity. Prices ranged between **438M and 590M** during this chaos.
3. **2023 Economic Disturbances**:
- The **Scrimshaw Dupe (Jan 2023)** severely affected prices across all items, tanking the crossbow after inflated buying fueled a peak at **423M**. As gold trickled into the economy, PvMers began cashing out.
- The **08/2023 Necromancy Update** saw ranged setups de-prioritized by endgame players, especially in PvM, leading to a short slump before recovery by **11/2023 Black Partyhat Launch**, signaling mounting demand for top items.
4. **2024 Events and Price Prediction**:
- The price dropped to **109M** post-**05/15/2024 Max Cash exploit**, a direct fallout from item flooding and panic selling.
---
#### **Interesting Insights**:
- **Altered Perception of Ranged Meta**: With the **Necromancy combat release (03/2024)** amplifying hybrid styles and reducing reliance on specialized Ranged setups, Blightbound's desirability continues to decline, except in niche bossing like Raksha itself or Arch-Glacor.
- **High-End PvM Gatekeeping**: As Raksha itself remains a mid-high tier boss requiring moderate skill, the crossbow has a limited farming pool, which helps mitigate complete oversaturation. This explains its peak in rarity-dependent demand after **heroic events**.
---
### **Price Prediction for 2024/2025**:
Given historical trends and the effects of cash influx events, we predict fluctuations in Blightbound's price as follows:
1. **Short-Term Stability**: Due to the **07/2024 Sanctum of Rebirth**, higher-tier weapons like Blightbound align as a PvM-accessible tool.
- **End of 2024**: Recovery to ~170M due to PvM improvement meta.
- **Early 2025**: Additional ~10% improvements reflect significant **drop-tolerances-racking --Within drop priorities
Ely Intelligence Analysis