### Item Summary: **Greater Concentrated Blast Codex**
The **Greater Concentrated Blast Codex** is an unlockable Magic ability codex introduced with the ED3: **Elite Dungeon 3 (The Shadow Reef)** update on **March 25, 2019**, designed to replace the standard Concentrated Blast. Once learned, it allows the ability to hit three times in rapid succession with an increase in critical strike chance and adrenaline generation. It became an essential PvM skill for high-level Magic DPS rotations and one of the most valuable mid-to-high-tier upgrades for Magic users.
This codex drops from **Elite Dungeon 3**, obtained after defeating the Black Stone Dragon or sold by other players. It's a **rare drop**, and its price is highly influenced by major game changes and economic manipulation.
### Rarity and Price Trends
Historically, it has experienced demand spikes due to:
1. **Combat Meta Changes** (e.g., max combat level to 152 with Necromancy, increased damage requirements for new encounters like Croesus or the Sanctum of Rebirth).
2. **Gold Inflation** incidents (e.g., dupes, mass hacking events).
3. Updates that **increase new high-tier Magic equipment or Mage-centric metas**, driving direct utility for this codex.
### Price Data History and Trends
Key insights from price trends:
- **Initial Surge, August 2021-2022**: Following the Gold Dupes (July and November 2021), this item's value skyrocketed to **203M+**, as incoming gold boosted prices for high-demand PvM items.
- **Decline, 2023 Early**: Following the 2023 hacks and the Hero Pass backlash, players dumped items, adding downwards pressure. However, it rebounded sharply (50–100M spikes) following specific combat changes.
- **Recent Volatility, 2024**: The **Max Cash update (May 15, 2024)** and **Treasure Hunter GP Injection (April 10, 2024)** drastically reduced liquidity, creating demand collapses. Price steadily dropped from **25M in May 2024** to **7.24M by October 2024**.
This price behavior reflects the cyclical nature of RuneScape's PvM markets, gold inflation, and game updates. **Rarity is no longer a strong factor; its supply has outpaced demand in the 2024–2025 cycle, barring significant Mage meta buffs.**
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### **Price Forecast: Q4 2024 – Q2 2025**
Recent trends show a mix of consistent drops, post-dupe exploitation crashes, and Mage meta stagnation. My prediction:
1. **Q4 2024 – Stable:** Prices will stabilize as demand evens out following recent crash points. It may hover between **5-8M GP** unless Mage becomes meta-focused.
2. **Q1 2025 – M minor Recovery:** If combat-focused reworks (Necromancy rebalance or combat-specific meta promises) arise, the price could regain momentum to **12-16M GP.**
3. **Q2 2025 – Spike Potential:** Historically, summer updates push content rebalancing. With optimistic demand triggers, prices may spike closer to **25M GP.**
**Stabilization Floor Prediction**: Likely not to dip below **5M**, as the codex retains long-term Magic use.
**Historical Trough Influence:** Similar major crashes (e.g., Scrimshaw dupes) pressured PvM-oriented goods to their lowest floors for extended periods (months).
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### **Flipping Margins**
The **Greater Concentrated Blast Codex** is prone to wide flipping ranges due to its mid-tier liquidity. Typical spreads depend on market activity:
- **Stable Markets:** Normal margins of ~10-15%.
- **Volatile Times:** Expect potential for **30–50% margins** during rapid rebounds (e.g., post-dupe dumps or post-major Mage update hints) due to player panic buying.
- **Expected Margins for Q4 2024:** Anticipate 1-2M per flip on a consistent low-risk cycle. Aggressive play may yield gains of 3-4M, especially if base drops towards 5M.
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### **Related Items and Strategies**
For those working with or around the Greater Concentrated Blast Codex, similar items to consider for synergistic investments include:
1. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl:** High-end counterpart driving demand for Magic abilities. Its price correlates with player interest in high-tier Mage PvM setups.
2. **EOF (Essence of Finality):** Tracks PvM dumping/recovery cycles after crises.
3. **Elder Troves and Relics:** Items tied to Power Creep in Magic setups; relatively safe investments.
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### **Seasonal Influences**
Seasons also impact price cycles for the codex:
- **Positive Factors**:
- **Post-Summer Development Months (July-September):** Players prepare for winter updates, driving higher PvM engagement and codex demand.
- **Easter and December Combat Meta/Event Updates:** Announcements of new bosses or combat systems spike ability prices.
- **Negative Factors**:
- **Post-Dupe Recovery (e.g., Max Cash 2024):** Key sell times when prices are overly inflated by GP injections.
- **Wilderness/Non-PvM Changes:** When updates shift away from Mage PvM, the codex market crashes (e.g., 2022 Wilderness PvP removal).
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### **Actionable Insights**
1. **Buy Floor Price Q4 2024:** Monitor for sub-6M GP movement by leveraging panic buys. Accumulate as flipping potential reaches its peak into Q1 2025.
2. **Pivot to EOF/Magic Set Investments:** Long-term value for EOF and Mage weapons makes them safer against shocks, unlike ability codices.
Ely Intelligence Analysis