### **Amulet of Souls Analysis** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The **Amulet of Souls** is a high-tier neck-slot item in RuneScape 3, ideal for PvM and significantly valued for its defensive benefits and healing bonuses. It was released on **October 13, 2014**, as a reward from the crafting of **Hydrix Jewelry**, requiring level 91 Crafting and an **unattuned Hydrix**, which is only obtainable through death costs or trading. The amulet provides **30% more healing from Soul Split** and **25% damage reduction from reflected damage**, making it a staple for bossing and longer-duration fights. Its rarity is tied directly to the trade price and availability of **Hydrix gems**, which depend on the economy. Attaining this item in the mid-game is considered a benchmark for PvM progression yet remains affordable compared to other high-end gear. --- #### **Historical Price Performance** The Amulet of Souls' price has fluctuated significantly over time. Below are key insights tied to historical trends: 1. **2021 and Early Dupe Events**: - Post-rollbacks in **2021 (Jan/July)**, the influx of gold caused inflation across all high-ticket items. The Amulet of Souls surged in value due to its PvM desirability alongside gold hoarding practices. - The **Croesus release (Sept 2021)** increased demand for PvM gear, causing prices to temporarily stabilize. 2. **2022 to 2023: Stability Undermined by Exploits**: - The **Duel Arena removal (Jan 2022)** freed up immense amounts of GP in the economy, raising the price ceiling of tradable endgame gear briefly. - HOWEVER, the **Fresh Start Worlds (Sept 2022)** and Wilderness PvP events caused broader instability as they redirected player priorities. - The **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan-Feb 2023)** led to market uncertainty, spiking the amulet's price to **82.9M** before plunging it as the gold influx rebalanced. 3. **Necromancy Release (Aug 2023)**: - The Necromancy update indirectly boosted the price again as new players entered the game looking for early-to-mid-end PvM investments. - Price peaked during **July-Aug 2023**, reaching **73.8M**, before correction amid the **Hero Pass backlash (Sept 2023)** and subsequent confidence drops surrounding Carlyle Group’s sale of Jagex. 4. **2024 Updates and GP Injection Events**: - The **Easter rewards dupe (April 2024)** and **Max Cash exploits (May 2024)** resulted in sharp GP inflation. The Amulet responded with a steady climb in mid-2024 but avoided turbulent spikes because Smithing and Mining reworks redirected spending towards non-combat assets. Most recent data places its price at **65M as of Dec 2024**, showing recovery after a mid-year dip around **58M (March-April)**. --- #### **Price Prediction for the Next Few Months** Considering historical econometrics and upcoming trends: - **Short-term prediction (Q1 2025)**: Likely to hover between **68M and 72M.** Factors include increased PvM activity post-Sanctum of Rebirth releases and fewer game-breaking dupes indicated by a more regulatory-active Jagex. - **Mid-term prediction (Q2 2025)**: May encounter slight **stagnation (~66-68M)** unless a significant boss, update, or gold exploit occurs. Typically, mid-year events focusing on other aspects of the meta negatively impact Hydrix-related prices. External dependencies include: - Economic responses to **Bond pricing or Treasure Hunter GP injections**. - Seasonal trends where PvM activity surges (e.g., pre-summer events). --- #### **Flipping Margins** The Amulet of Souls is a lucrative item for traders due to its relatively high liquidity among the mid-to-high-tier player base: - **Typical buy-sell gap**: 1-2% of its market price (currently **650K-1.3M GP per trade**). - **Ideal flipping scenarios**: Invest post-exploit-induced crashes or during PvM non-meta periods. - **Challenges**: Margin manipulation is common on Hydrix items, resulting in highly reactive undercutting from competing traders. --- #### **Complementary Items to Invest In** For flipping or diversifying alongside the Amulet of Souls: 1. **Reaper Necklace**: Similarly Hydrix-crafted item, widely used in high-DPS environments. - Benefits from correlated PvM activity surges. 2. **Essence of Finality amulet (EOF)**: Prime upgrade and alternative to the Amulet of Souls, frequently bought by transitioning mid-game players. - EOF spikes often signal dips in Amulet prices (and vice versa). 3. **Hydrix gems** and **cut Onyx**: Base components essential for crafting Hydrix jewelry can be hoarded or flipped especially during quest/boss-related inflation spikes. --- #### **Seasonal Patterns and Price Trends** - **Positive trends**: - Mid-year boss releases like **Sanctum of Rebirth (July)** are PvM-heavy, increasing demand. - **Pre-holiday periods (Nov-Dec)** increase both liquidity and demand as players return for seasonal events. - **Negative trends**: - Post-duplication inflation resets often drive prices temporarily downward as the market stabilizes. - Economy shifts like **Bond price increases (June)** often reduce liquid spending, hurting high-price items. ### **Concluding Insights** The Amulet of Souls represents a relatively stable PvM investment, benefiting indirectly from RuneScape’s evolving combat meta and surge in player-focused economic updates. Prospective traders should monitor likely influxes of GP and upcoming PvM updates to maximize flipping potential, avoiding periods of economic diversity (e.g., non-combat skill updates). A long horizon investment paired with Reaper or EOF trends may see marginal gains better than standalone trading in 2025.