### Erethdor's Grimoire: Summary, Release, and Rarity Erethdor's Grimoire is a high-level magic off-hand book that enhances RuneScape's endgame combat for high-DPS roles, particularly in PvM scenarios. Released on **September 27, 2021**, alongside the **Croesus Front update**, it uses charges to provide game-changing passives, such as increased critical strike chance and amplified adrenaline generation. Key to its rarity, it requires perishable Grimoire Pages to remain active, which feeds into demand beyond its initial acquisition. Its drop comes from **Archaeology's Orthen Dig Site**, available via research reward. As an expensive and niche item with usage primarily in bossing, its rarity aligns with its status as a luxury combat enhancement. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends Erethdor's Grimoire has experienced both predictable and unexpected price fluctuations. From the dataset: - **Initial Surge (2021)**: Upon release, prices ranged between **270M–400M GP**, fueled initially by PvM demand from the Croesus Front and stabilized by high-end player adoption. - **Steady Decline (2022)**: Following player gold sink mechanics (Fresh Start Worlds, Wilderness PvP removal, etc.), its price softens amidst surplus gold, averaging **230M–300M GP**. - **Major Volatility (2023)**: A significant **spike in January 2023 (323M)** followed by crashes near **142.5M** in May correlates with post-Scrimshaw dupe fallout and resulting market instability. The scrimshaw dupe reduced disposable incomes as players compensated for artificial scarcity elsewhere, leading to liquidation or lower interest in sustain-cost items like Grimoires. - **Post-Necromancy Era (August 2023)**: Price fell to **175.5M in late July** but rebounded near **303M shortly after Necromancy's combat release**, as high-tier magic builds regained utility during the initial learning phase of Necromancy’s inclusion. - **Current Period (2024)**: Oscillating between **200M–230M GP**, driven by the **March 2024 combat update** and the **April duping incidents**, both of which created an influx of gold but also semi-revitalized PvM demand. --- ### Price Prediction: Next Few Months (Q4 2024–Q1 2025) Given recent updates and historical trends: 1. **Positive Influences**: The **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)** brings new endgame PvM content, likely keeping high-DPS optimization items like Erethdor's Grimoire desirable. A boost in Smithing efficiency (August 2024 rework) could further mobilize PvM-driven reinvestment. - **Expected Upside**: Up to **250–280M**, especially if combat DPS-focused reworks are teased in Q1 2025. 2. **Negative Risks**: Persistent **duplication exploits** (GIM November 2024, Max Cash May 2024 dupe effects still rippling) or PvM meta shifts through further **Necromancy balancing** could suppress intrinsic player need for Grimoires. - **Possible Downside**: Could dip as low as **175–200M**, especially during cosmetic-oriented Treasure Hunter rewards reappearing in Q1 2025. **Prediction Summary:** Price will oscillate between **200M–260M** through Q4 2024, with short-term spikes if Rebirth PvM or new combat mechanics demand higher DPS outputs. --- ### Flipping Potential and Typical Margins Erethdor's Grimoire offers mid-to-high flipping margins due to volatility trends. Margins for active flippers generally average **5%–10%** for smaller buy-in opportunities (200M–220M acquisition zones). - **Typical Margins**: Expect a range of **10–20M GP profit per Grimoire** under ideal circumstances (buy low post-update; sell high before PvM-focused streams/modeling economics like Warden boss efficiency buffs). - **Longer Holds**: Holding Grimoires for endgame PvM releases after undercut T75–T90 gear additions often secures **30M–50M gains**, albeit riskier. --- ### Comparative Items to Buy/Invest In 1. **Ephemeral Weapons/Equipment**: Look at **attunables or consumables** with direct synergy to DPS users, such as **Eldritch Crossbow pieces**, **Fractured Staff of Armadyl**, or **Animate Dead-focused Necromancy buffs**, especially trending post-combat balancing changes. 2. **Sustainable Alternatives**: Given the rising price of Grimoire Pages, investing in items like **Greater Ricochet Codices** or **Cull the Weak synergy perks** acts as a hedge if demand for Grimoires declines due to prohibitive "ongoing" costs. --- ### Seasonal Market Impacts: 1. **Profit-Positive Periods**: - **Post-update environments (PvM/Wardens/Content)**: October–December, February, and July are traditionally ripe for high-market efficiency flips. - **Winter Break (Holiday Surges)**: Mid-December through January offers increased demand due to player time availability and general gold fluidity. 2. **Loss-Prone Phases**: - **April–May (Spring Dips)**: Historically impacted by updates like cash dupes and casual player exodus post-major holiday seasons. - **Post-sale fatigue**: After high-profile Jagex events or tradeable GP cash-out methods (e.g., Black Partyhat Nov 2023 or insane Hero Pass ongoing player exit threats). --- ### Final Advice Given Erethdor's Grimoire’s inherently high-stakes flipping behavior, **timing will remain critical**—focus on PvM-centric development news, watch Grimoire Page costs closely, and adjust investments during mid-tier cash injection periods like **Treasure Hunter updates**. Investing alongside complementary DPS items or consumables is ideal for diversification.