### Summary The **Dwarf Multicannon Upgrade Kit** is a cosmetic upgrade for the Dwarf Multicannon, offering a sleek redesign without altering functionality. Released on **August 13, 2018**, the item was originally made available through Treasure Hunter promotions. Its rarity stems partly from its status as a Treasure Hunter cosmetic item, supplemented by growing interest in niche cosmetic items. The kit is untradeable upon claim, which means its traded counterpart comes almost exclusively from players who never used their kits—resulting in scarcity over time. ### Historical Price Trends and Notable Events The price of the Dwarf Multicannon Upgrade Kit has oscillated heavily over the years, primarily affected by Treasure Hunter gold floods, duping scandals, economic updates, and demand spikes tied to PvM/meta changes. Here's a breakdown of some factors and events affecting price changes: 1. **Dupes and Exploits**: - The **2021 rollback and token dupes** created hyperinflation in RuneScape's economy, which initially lowered item prices as the perceived value of gold fell. This likely explains the low points (~27M price range) in **July–August 2021**. - Later dupes in **January 2023 (Scrimshaw dupes)** and **May 2024 (Max Cash exploit)** followed similar trends, contributing to GP devaluation that often spikes prices of high-tier and exclusive items—though only briefly. 2. **Demand Shifts**: - The **Necromancy release in August 2023** heightened interest in Slayer/Multi-target setups, drawing more attention to cosmetic multicannon items. Demand likely rose as players revamped their setups, cushioning dips during the **Hero Pass backlash**. - **Treasure Hunter's ballooning GP impacts**, such as the 1B GP update of **April 10, 2024**, created inflationary pressures that increase the prices of rare, cosmetic items as players seek prestige purchases. 3. **Supply-Constricting Events**: - Seasonal Treasure Hunter promotions rarely reintroduce multicannon kits, so their supply has steadily dried up. However, the **Sanctum of Rebirth release in July 2024** brought new high-demand equipment requiring heavy skilling, indirectly increasing item dumping to free up funds—leading to the sharp price dip to ~30M by **May 2024**. 4. **Fresh Start Worlds (2022)**: - FS Worlds created a demand shift toward collectible cosmetics that could define accounts for new players or returnees. This added brief upward momentum to the price during **late 2022**. ### Price Prediction (Late-2024 to Early-2025) Current trajectory suggests **increased volatility into late 2024 and early 2025**, driven by GP injections, reduced kit supply, and evolving player interests. Expect: - **Short-term (~3 months):** Prices may dip slightly (~28M–35M) as the **Mining/Smithing rework** and other skilling-intensive updates incentivize liquidations. - **Medium-term (~6 months):** Prices could rebound to **40M–50M** due to continued inflation and rarity, especially into early 2025 when demand for discontinued or niche items traditionally rises (January-February market "prestige cycle"). - **Long-term:** Without reintroduction in Treasure Hunter or other updates, the item could stabilize at **50M–60M**+ by the mid-year holiday surge (around June 2025). ### Flipping Margins The Dwarf Multicannon Upgrade Kit typically maintains **5-10% margins** for active flippers: - **Low activity periods:** Margins generally tighten (~5%) due to low volume, but occasional undercutting from uninformed sellers presents opportunities for bigger profits. - **High activity periods (e.g., event-driven influx):** Margins can peak above **10%,** especially when panic sells occur after content updates like Sanctum of Rebirth or the Mining/Smithing rework. Pro tip: Monitor **Grand Exchange price ceilings** when Treasure Hunter GP dumps occur, as cosmetic items typically bottom out after "instant dump" waves. ### Companion Investments If you're trading/collecting the Dwarf Multicannon Upgrade Kit, here are similar rare cosmetics to consider, along with their seasonal trends: 1. **Golden Warpriest Set Pieces (2016 iteration)**: Similar rarity with strong demand during prestige revival seasons (early-mid year); pairs well with PvM collector themes. 2. **Black/Golden Santa Hats or Partyhat-related tradables**: These are inflation-sensitive as well and require similar timing to capitalize on market corrections. 3. **Pet Tokens (e.g., Bloodpouncer Skin)**: Often paired with side-flipping Dwarf Multicannon kits, as pet tokens share similar cyclic demand spikes. ### Seasonal Market Trends - **Positive Price Trends**: January-February (prestige/new dungeon rush), June-July (pre-inflationary cycles from Treasure Hunter/holiday hype). - **Negative Price Trends**: Post-major GP injection updates, such as Treasure Hunter flood events or skilling content releases like Sanctum. By carefully aligning purchases during downturns (May-July, post-content updates) and selling in December-February, you can best exploit market trends tied to rare tradables like the Dwarf Multicannon Upgrade Kit.