### **Summary and Overview of Alchemical Hydrix** The Alchemical Hydrix is a high-tier crafting material in RuneScape 3, used to create some of the strongest pocket-slot items (e.g., the Essence of Finality, Brooch of the Gods, and Ful Arrows). Introduced on **October 9, 2017**, this refined version of the hydrix gem is made by combining a cut hydrix (crafted from an incomplete hydrix) with 50 Fortunate Components, creating a high-level demand tied to treasure hunts and PvM. The rarity of hydrix materials, coupled with economic dependency on Fortunate Components (heavily influenced by Treasure Trails), makes Alchemical Hydrix an inherently volatile yet valuable item. --- ### **Historical Price Insights and Influences** Price trends over the years reveal cyclical shifts influenced by three primary factors: major updates, gold inflation events, and supply bottlenecks. Here are notable highlights from price history and events impacting their value: 1. **Gold Inflate Events (Dupes and Hacks):** - January 2021 Rollback Dupe and 2023 Scrimshaw Dupe led to surges of gold in circulation. Gold inflation spiked high-tier item prices momentarily before stabilizing as the economy rebounded. - Post-duplication events show resistance in price drop-offs due to the enormous demand for Alchemical Hydrix items in PvM and treasure trails. 2. **Skill Updates and Economy Reworks:** - **Necromancy Update (August 2023):** This increased relevance of Essence of Finality in Necromancy builds, causing demand spikes. Peaks like 164M shortly after reflect renewed interest in Alchemical Hydrix-related equipment. - **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024):** PvM gear demand led to steady purchasing but was soon undercut by gold influx from Treasure Hunter rewards and economic exploits. 3. **Treasure Hunter-Related Surplus (2024):** - Jagex’s repeated GP injection to Treasure Hunter (April 10, 2024) led to temporary drops in materials like Fortunates. This surplus, combined with Max Cash Update exploits (May 2024), diluted Alchemical Hydrix prices, demonstrating that excessive GP distribution undermines traditional price stability. 4. **Seasonal Impacts:** Festive periods (Christmas, Easter) experience fluctuations as Treasure Trail rewards flood the market, decreasing Fortunate prices while boosting Alchemical Hydrix supply. --- ### **Price Prediction and Analysis for the Next Few Months (Late 2024-Early 2025)** Given the provided price history, the following trends could occur: - **Short-Term (Late 2024):** The **GIM bank duplication (Nov 2024)** and possible Treasure Hunter promotions around Christmas season could slightly drop prices into the **low 130M range**, as more Fortunates hit the market and Treasure Trail players aim to liquidate. - **Medium-Term (Early 2025):** With Alchemical Hydrix’s strong dependence on PvM gear crafting and long-term player demand for Essence of Finality upkeep or replacement, the market should recover into the **140-145M range by February-March 2025**, assuming no massive GP inflations. The **RuneScape combat update (March 2024)** may introduce new meta-relevant pocket items or mechanics, creating yet another demand spike. **Key Factors to Watch:** 1. Treasure Hunter promotions or other Fortunate Component surplus sources. 2. GP inflation events through dupes, bug fixes, or promotional oversights. 3. Supply bottlenecks via PvM-specific item meta shifts (e.g., new combat modes). --- ### **Flipping Margins and Strategy** The Alchemical Hydrix has long been a lucrative item for flipping due to consistent demand for its applications. Over the past years, it has averaged **2-4M profit per flip** for experienced merchants. Margins can exceed 5M in volatile periods when Treasure Trail promotions or PvM releases destabilize markets momentarily. **Tips for Maximum Gains:** - **Buy During Treasure Trail Events:** Player floods in Fortunates cause temporary Alchemical Hydrix drops. Purchase during these 1-2 week windows. - **Sell During PvM Updates:** Demand spikes surrounding major boss and meta updates (like the upcoming combat adjustment) align directly with PvMers upgrading gear, maximizing margins. --- ### **Alternative Items for Investment** To diversify or hedge, here are some comparable items worth tracking and investing alongside Alchemical Hydrix: 1. **Fortunate Components (Bundles):** A direct companion to Alchemical Hydrix. Often undervalued after Treasure Hunter loot surges. 2. **Essence of Finality Amulet:** Tends to increase before major Necromancy boss releases or combat updates. 3. **Hexhunter Bow:** Strong meta ties create predictable price patterns for flipping, especially during ranged-heavy boss additions. 4. **Blood Dye or Shadow Dye:** High-risk, high-reward investments due to PvM-focused gear cosmetics. --- ### **Seasonal Patterns and Their Impacts** - **Positive Growth Seasons:** Early-year updates (January-March) post-festive hyperinflation, Necromancy or combat skill releases pushing PvM gear demand. - **Negative Growth Seasons:** Late-year Treasure Hunter gold injections (October-December) that artificially suppress Fortunate-derived item prices like the Alchemical Hydrix.