### Deep Analysis: Double Surge Codex #### Summary The **Double Surge Codex**, released on **June 30, 2021**, provides RuneScape 3 players with a permanent passive ability to use a second Surge every 15 seconds. Surge is a crucial movement ability in high-level PvM (Player versus Monster) and skilling scenarios, making Double Surge a significant quality-of-life and combat optimization item. It is learned after consuming the codex, a tradable drop obtained primarily from **Archaeology mystery rewards** and other related skilling niches. This codex is a niche but highly coveted luxury item, especially for PvM players aiming to optimize DPS uptime and evade mechanics in boss encounters. Its rarity stems from the effort required to obtain it as a skilling reward, balanced by consistent market demand driven by movement-intensive content like **Telos**, **Zuk**, and **Elite Dungeons**. --- ### Historical Price Insights and Trends #### Price History Analysis The price history of the Double Surge Codex reveals several sharp peaks and troughs tied closely to the in-game economy’s volatility and the impact of key game updates. Here are notable trend shifts and key correlations: 1. **Initial Surge (2021)**: Upon its release in mid-2021, the codex remained relatively steady around **68M** due to heavy skilling drops from Archaeology players. **Event driver**: Cooldown-change updates to Surge occurred earlier that year (Jan 2021), increasing its desirability ahead of its introduction. 2. **Rollback Dupe Impact (Late 2021)**: Between **October 2021** and early **2022**, the codex dropped in price to averages of **35M-50M** due to the dupe incident and introduction of **Croesus**, which increased significant gold inflows and new gameplay strategies taking attention away from surge utility. 3. **Recovery and PvM Expansion (2023)**: The item witnessed unprecedented volatility in early 2023 due to large-scale exploitations (e.g., **Scrimshaw dupe**, **Red Portal bugs**) flooding gold into the economy, resulting in peaks exceeding **100M** during periods of hyperinflation. This was further exacerbated by PvM updates such as the release of Necromancy in **August 2023**, which increased demand for movement-heavy optimization in new rotations. 4. **Price Dips Post-Hero Pass (Late 2023–Early 2024)**: Following significant backlash from the **Hero Pass system** and dilution of player interest due to Treasure Hunter-based GP injections, the codex fell as low as **35M** during **December 2023**, when the combat meta also temporarily destabilized with the **Black Partyhat** update and additional cash redistribution events (including the **Easter egg dupe of April 2024**). 5. **Recent Recovery Post-July 2024**: By **July 2024**, the price rose back to **88M** due to structural PvM content changes (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth**) and increased costs of bonds driving gold sinks. Coupled with buffs to **Mining/Smithing**, overall GP generation has remained inflationary, pushing premium item costs upward sharply. --- ### Price Prediction and Analysis Given historical price movements, significant price spikes correlate with: 1. The introduction of PvM mechanics requiring higher utility from the Surge ability. 2. Inflationary gold changes from dupes or Treasure Hunter schemes. 3. Seasonal GP influxes (e.g., new bosses or combat skill updates). **Key Prediction** (November 2024–February 2025): 1. **Mid-term stability (~75M-90M)**: If inflation trends from the **November GIM bug** remain subdued, moderate demand for codices due to PvM-focused content will keep prices relatively stable. 2. **Spikes to 100M+ possible late Q1 2025**: The combat meta will likely shift during **early 2025 balance patches**, further increasing demand. However, overinflation beyond this point is unlikely given that surge mechanics generally cater to a demographic niche of high-level content players. 3. **Risk of volatility sub-50M**: Should casual-focused updates (new skills, seasonal minigames, or holiday cosmetics) dilute high-level PvM engagement for an extended period, lower liquidity in the mid-tier market could lead to heavier dips, particularly in the absence of new boss mechanics. --- ### Flipping Margins and Seasonal Trends Typical flipping margins for the Double Surge Codex revolve around **2-8M per trade**, depending on market conditions: - **Strong-buy during speculative dips**: Codex prices are elastic to content releases. Preceding PvM or combat-oriented updates, prices dip as skilling-only players sell off in fear of price crashes. Smart buyers capitalize on these opportunities. - **Peak-sell in PvM focus points**: New bosses (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth**), meta-content updates, and Necromancy training boosts demand, allowing flipping profits to surge. **Optimal Trading Seasons**: - **Positive outcomes**: Early/mid-July (summer PvM updates), February-April (post-winter combat rebalances) tend to push demand upward. - **Negative outcomes**: Post-major TH cash injections (e.g., post-Nov 2024 from gold barons unloading inflows). --- ### Recommended Diversification Options Consider flipping or investing alongside items related to mobility or broad PvM optimization. Suggested options: - **Double Escape Codex**: A natural counterpart to Double Surge, highly sought in slayer and bossing communities. - **Mobile Perk Components**: Augmented mobile perks rise in tandem with surge-related codex demand. Complementary trades yield consistent flip gains. - **Weapon Poison+++ or Adrenaline Renewal Potions**: High synergy in PvM, rises alongside codex use. --- ### Conclusion The **Double Surge Codex** remains a staple of the high-level RuneScape economy. Priced significantly below its inflationary peak (107M), it is well-positioned for steady upward trends. Key economic threats (duplications, low PvM engagement) could dampen future growth, but PvM integration ensures base demand. Strategic flipping with 2-8M margins, paired with sibling items like **Double Escape**, offers lucrative opportunities.