### Summary of the **Dark Ice Sliver** The **Dark Ice Sliver** is a rare cosmetic weapon override item originally introduced as a reward on **Treasure Hunter** in **April 2021** as part of a promotion tied to the "Frosted Worlds" event. Its sleek and icy design makes it a desirable cosmetic for vanity collectors. The item was removed from Treasure Hunter after its limited promotional run, leading to consistent demand on the Grand Exchange and among players in the cosmetic market. **Rarity & Market Accessibility:** The Sliver has declined in circulation over time due to its promotional nature and minimal re-entry into the economy aside from a potential limited re-release via rare item boxes or treasure promotions. This has contributed to its consistent price volatility but high desirability. --- ### **Historical Price Behavior and Analysis** From your data, the Dark Ice Sliver shows distinct price spikes and dips associated with major RuneScape gold dupe occurrences, significant GP sinks, and gameplay updates. Here’s a breakdown of the trends from September 2021 to November 2024: 1. **2021 Launch Spikes**: Priced around **520M at its initial release in September 2021** during the Treasure Hunter promotion, it shatters downward due to the **Rollback Dupe event of 01/11/2021**, which flooded the economy with gold. The **Croesus Boss release** on 09/27/2021 further increased Sliver demand as bossing generally spikes player activity, but continued dupe-related instability caused sharp volatility. 2. **2022 Decline and Stabilization**: Following cosmetic market saturation and the **Fresh Start Worlds launch (09/22/2022)**, the Sliver's price settled between **20M–24M** as fewer players leaned toward cosmetics, prioritizing gameplay-centric progression. 3. **Early 2023 Recovery, Later Dips**: With the **Necromancy skill (August 2023)** increasing player activity, and rising interest in collectibles alongside recovered player engagement, the price briefly spiked around **27M** before retracing slightly post-controversial **Hero Pass release** in September 2023. Further game crises (e.g., hacks and exploits) created a fluctuating economy, suppressing prices again. 4. **Mid-2024 Spikes**: Gold injection events like **1B GP Treasure Hunter prizes (04/10/2024)** and the **Sanctum of Rebirth boss (07/22/2024)** re-stimulated cosmetic interest. The price hit **29.7M by May** but dropped again as cash-related exploits like the **Max Cash bug (05/15/2024)** diluted gold value. --- ### **Price Prediction (Late 2024 through Q1 2025)** The Dark Ice Sliver is operating as a mid-tier vanity cosmetic item, whose values are heavily tied to both gold inflation and how collectible markets rebound during significant content releases or rare-item distributions. - **Short-term Movement (Q4 2024):** A steady price floor of around **22M–24M** as recent bugs (e.g., **GIM bank dupe**, **Black Partyhat release**) shift GP flows elsewhere. However, if holiday promotions or rare-releases are minimal, demand for vanity overrides could recover to **26M–28M** by December 2024. - **Early 2025:** If major bot or dupe crises stabilize, expect slow appreciation back toward **30M** by Q2, reflecting collector-driven buying and certainty in overall gold value. Adverse events, such as further exploits or re-entries via Treasure Hunter, could suppress prices under **20M** due to higher circulation or reduced confidence in collectible items. --- ### **Flipping Margins** On average, the **Dark Ice Sliver** maintains flipping margins of **4%-7%** between its buy and sell delta, depending on player activity peaks or Treasure Hunter-related FOMO campaigns. For example: - *Buy for 22.5M, sell at 24M*: ~1.5M profit, or 6.7%. - Larger flips exceeding **27M** tend to minimize margins due to reduced buyer interest at top levels. **Pro Tip**: Target early-morning buy limits when trade velocity on the G.E. slows or during holiday lulls around large event periods. --- ### **Alternative Items** Other vanity cosmetics or mid-tier discontinued items tend to follow similar market behavioral trends: 1. **Gilded Chakram (similar 2021 Treasure Hunter promo)**: Has a lower price floor (~16-20M) but reflects comparable buyer interest. 2. **Radiant Weapons Set**: Another older Treasure Hunter line whose peaks (~50M) and dips (~25-28M) may align with the Sliver for tandem buys. 3. **Golden Party Hat Shard Pieces**: Heavily seasonal, ideal to flip around **holiday pricing surges**. Margins post-event stabilize quicker into 2025. --- ### **Best Periods for Positive Outcomes** 1. **Pre-expansion or skill launches (e.g., Winter, Early Spring):** High player activity translates to higher turnover for vanity items. 2. **Holiday Seasons (December):** Festive events spike engagement among casual collectors increasing prices over short windows, particularly if evergreen cosmetics like Ice Sliver complement wintery aesthetics. --- ### **Periods to Avoid** 1. **Following Treasure Hunter re-release events:** If a Sliver-like override is redistributed, the market will overcorrect sharply due to oversupply. 2. **Major GP injection events (large influxes of cash into RuneScape’s economy):** Economic inflation typically causes temporary demand surges, but confidence in longer-term collectible investments often wanes. --- Strategically buying and flipping the **Dark Ice Sliver** relies on careful timing around content updates and engagement shifts. Hunting for niche alternative cosmetics or crafting multi-season flipping plans ensures stable profits in long-term investments.