### **Dark Shard of Leng Summary and Details** The **Dark Shard of Leng**, a Tier 95 off-hand melee weapon, was introduced as a drop from the **Croesus Front** of the Elder God Wars Dungeon on **September 27, 2021**. It is paired with the **Dark Ice Shard** for dual-wielding melee setups with devastating special attack potential. As a high-end PvM item, it sees usage primarily in high-level bossing and Slayer activities due to its unique perks and synergy within melee setups. Despite its potential, demand is slightly niche as melee isn't the dominant meta for PvM compared to ranged or magic. Given its association with the Croesus boss, it is a **rare drop rate**, with its value heavily tied to fluctuations in Croesus activity and overall melee popularity. --- ### **Historical Price Trends and Insights** An analysis of its price trends reveals distinct patterns tied to game economy events, player activity, and the RuneScape melee meta: 1. **Initial Release (September 2021):** The item's price peaked at **2.35B GP** shortly after release before stabilizing to ~1.5B GP. This was driven by initial scarcity, hype, and early mass purchases by top-tier PvMers and merchers. 2. **Economic Events (Late 2021 - Early 2022):** Between **September 2021 and January 2022**, recurring gold influx events (rollback dupe, Duel Arena gold injection) and Fresh Start Worlds caused inflation, leading to a subsequent dip but eventual stabilization as excess gold left circulation. 3. **Downtrend in 2022:** By mid-2022, the Shard saw consistent declines, trading closer to the **1.1B** range. This was likely caused by: - Declining Croesus activity due to the PvM cycle favoring newer bosses. - Shifts toward ranged/magic-focused metas. - Player interest diverted following the Fresh Start Worlds’ incentives. 4. **Recent Volatility (2023-2024):** Prices spiked post-Necromancy updates (**August 2023**) reaching **1.2B+**, likely driven by players experimenting with melee builds under the Necromancy-inspired combat changes. However, critical gold injection events like the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** and the release of alternatives (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth bosses**) caused sharp declines back to ~829M GP by **November 2024.** **Key Insights Not Found Elsewhere:** - Unlike certain weapons, the Shard's price *lags behind broader melee trends*. This is partly because it functions as an off-hand, a role traditionally less impactful compared to main-hand weapons. - Seasonal Croesus surges during Treasure Hunter promos (when PvMers farm to convert keys) subtly raise its frequency of drops, depressing its price unpredictably. --- ### **Price Prediction** Based on historical patterns: - **Short Term (0-3 months):** Price will likely drop further below **800M GP**, especially during holiday events (e.g., December’s Treasure Hunter focus on consumables and gold rewards) that shift player demand toward alternatives like **Necromancy upgrades** or **cash-focused tradables**. - **Medium Term (3-6 months):** Expect recovery in early 2025 if Jagex releases melee-oriented boss/dungeon content or if treasure mechanics slow Croesus farming. Prices could rebound to **850-950M GP**, barring further economic interference. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Flipping the Dark Shard of Leng has been profitable during specific volatility windows: 1. **Spike Drops (e.g., Croesus Activity Surges):** Margins in the **3-5% range**, with rapid undercuts from bossing drops leading to mid-day buying opportunities. 2. **Post-Economic Events (e.g., Max Cash):** Broader sell-offs tend to push prices ~20M below usual lows, creating **5-8% margins** during rebounds. --- ### **Complementary Flipping Items** 1. **Dark Ice Shard (Main-hand Pair):** Always a strong match for movements in the Dark Shard market; melee setups often require the pair. 2. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl (T95 Magic):** While magic-based, its price often correlates with game economy trends affecting all high-tier weaponry. 3. **Elder God Wars Gear (Glacor/Arch-Glacor Drops):** Items like **Fractured Boots** offer similar flipping cycles due to their demand in bossing metas. --- ### **Seasonal Trends** - **Positive Outcomes:** - Post-major boss updates (e.g., recent Necromancy content) historically boosts all combat tiers. - Early-year PvM content releases often cause demand spikes (January-April). - **Negative Outcomes:** - **Holiday Events (December):** Massive influx of tradeable rewards diminishes gear value. - **Treasure Hunter Gold Releases:** Promos like **April 2024’s GP addition** directly devalue high-end items, especially niche utilities like off-hands. ### **Advice Summary** While the Dark Shard is currently undervalued, it's a risky short-term investment due to lingering economic instability and melee's underperformance. Instead: - Accumulate **Dark Ice Shards** and **Fractured Boots of Future Past**, as their use in Glacor bossing skews less volatile. - Watch for melee buffs or content favoring dual-wield setups, which will catalyze Shard value growth. Predict cautiously during **2024 Q1-Q2**, and lean into flipping **lesser-tier melee gear (e.g., T90 weapons)** for consistent but lower-risk profits.