### Cryptbloom Top (Croesus): Summary and Rarity
The Cryptbloom Top is a high-level magic tank chestpiece introduced with the **release of the Croesus boss** on **27th September 2021**. As part of the Cryptbloom armor set, it excels in mitigating magic and ranged damage through its passive effects, such as **damage-over-time (DoT) reduction**, synergizing well with bosses dealing large hits or using AoE magic attacks (e.g., Raksha, Kerapac, and some Elite Dungeons content). It requires **level 90 Defence and Magic** to wield, making it accessible to high-level players seeking survivability in demanding PvM encounters.
This item is considered **rare** due to the challenging RNG mechanics in Croesus loot, its drop-tier restructuring, and the necessity for coordinated groups to efficiently farm Croesus, particularly post-release when the boss wasn’t yet trivialized by gear innovation. Its rarity has entrenched the top as a marquee armor piece for PvM.
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### Analysis of Historical Price Movements
#### Key Price Observations:
1. **Inception Price (Sept – Dec 2021):** Following the release of Croesus, Cryptbloom Top stabilized in the 500-700M range due to initial demand from PvMers paired with Croesus farming inefficiency. Notably, the **11/1/2021 rollback dupes** injected massive inflationary pressure, reducing GP value, spiking all desirable items. This explains the fluctuating, then inflated price (~720M Nov 2021).
2. **2022 Decline (~845M to ~631M):** After peaking in March 2022 (~845M), Cryptbloom Top dropped consistently through Q2-Q3 amid two major factors:
- **Duel Arena removal (01/04/2022):** Eliminated a major GP sink, leaving surplus cash in the economy.
- **Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022):** Diverted attention/resources to the new economy, dropping interest in gearing for the live game.
3. **2023 Stability and Spikes (~710M in Feb → ~381M Aug → ~229M in June 2024):**
- **Necromancy release (08/07/2023):** This new combat skill indirectly reduced demand for magic tank gear, as players focused on Necromancy-specific setups.
- **Hero Pass and Player Hacking Scandals:** Decreased general player activity and purchasing, leading to further price drops.
4. **2024 Declines (Jan - Present (~229-200M):**
- Widespread **max cash exploits (May 2024)** and economic turbulence led to a sharp depreciation. Item updates like Treasures/GP boosts flooded endgame combat essentials, heavily depreciating costly items barring fresh-market exclusives.
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### Price Prediction for the Next Few Months:
Key factors influencing future prices:
1. **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024):** Could require tank armor, causing demand to rise modestly (~10–15% increases).
2. **Mining and Smithing rework (August 2024):** Players' attention may shift away from bosses; if there are no patches improving the desirability of Cryptbloom, prices could stabilize or fall slightly.
3. Continued impact of the **June Bond Price increase ($8.99)** will reduce real-world purchasing affordability for players seeking high-level gear, keeping prices more depressed.
Predicted Stability:
- **Short-term Q3-Q4 2024:** Stabilization between **175M to 230M** due to market fatigue, high supply from older Croesus farmers, and less PvM-centric updates.
- **Potential Long-Term (~2025):** If an update buffing Cryptbloom mechanics (like synergy with Necromancy) occurs, prices could rebound to 250M+ levels. Otherwise, diminishing returns for endgame players facing deflationary trends (market oversupply).
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### Typical Flipping Margins:
Cryptbloom Top has been a **mid-risk, high-reward flip** due to its popularity in general PvM content. Typical margins:
- **Stable Markets:** 2-4% profits (e.g., buy at 195M, sell at 200M). Ideal in periods following GP-focused events like Treasure Hunter inflations.
- **Hyped Markets:** During updates (e.g., combat-centric major patches), short-term spikes (~10%) can provide flipping profits if you anticipate trends ahead of speculative buyers.
- **Dump Events (e.g., Hacks/Exploits):** Potential margins up to 15–20% when sellers panic liquidate their items. Buy during chaos, sell post-recovery.
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### Suggestions for Complementary Investments:
To hedge your investments in Cryptbloom or diversify during bearish markets, consider:
1. **Ganodermic Gear or Elder Troves (Necromancy Focus):** Often used by lower-budget players and sees consistent PvM demand.
2. **Tavia's Fishing Rod:** Correlates well with Treasure Hunter prize announcements.
3. **Core Economy Hedges:**
- **Bonds**: Demand surges in relation to price increases and updates.
- **Runes or Materials:** Supply disruptions typically trigger minor benefits (e.g., Blood/Nature rune fluctuations).
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### Seasonal Profitability Trends:
1. **Positive Trajectories:**
- **Post-Update Seasons:** PvM gear often spikes at the release of major bosses/dungeons that require tank stats (e.g., Raksha, Ambassador).
- **Holiday GP Events (e.g., Black Partyhat/Christmas rarities):** Encourage GP redistribution, benefiting popular PvM gear.
2. **Negative Trajectories:**
- **Summer (June-August):** Historical declines occur during the release of skills like Necromancy or efforts like Max Cash Expansion, which depreciate item markets.
- **Post-Duplicate Scandals:** Hacking and GP compensation events flood surplus wealth, dropping margins significantly.
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In summary, while Cryptbloom Top may feel near its stabilized floor, its future speculative bursts depend on PvM-related updates. For flipping profitability, maintain focus on hype-driven dips and couple the investment with hedging strategies. Long-term value hinges on the direction Jagex pivots PvM gear progression.
Ely Intelligence Analysis