### Croesus Foultorch: Deep Analysis #### **Summary, Release, and Rarity** The **Croesus Foultorch** was introduced on **September 27, 2021**, coinciding with the release of the **Croesus Front**, RuneScape's first skilling boss. It is part of the rare loot from Croesus and is utilized primarily to augment skilling through fungal-based activities, particularly offering boosts and passive bonuses to mining, woodcutting, and other gathering skills. The Foultorch is categorized as an **elite skilling tool**, meaning its demand is primarily tied to mid-to-high-tier skilling efficiency. Rare rewards from group-based bosses like Croesus naturally occupy a niche market. Starting at an exaggerated price (due to hype at release), its value has shown significant volatility, reflective of changes in supply, demand, and economic pressures in RuneScape. #### **Price Prediction for Next Few Months** Based on historical trends and market conditions: 1. **Current Price Context (199.5M - May 2023)**: - After a sharp rise from **115M (February 2023)** to **199.5M (May 2023)**, the demand for Foultorch appears to be peaking. This surge was likely fueled by the **Necromancy** skill in August 2023, which encouraged players to max multiple combat and gathering skills, driving up tool demand. 2. **Price Dips and Spikes**: - **September 2021**: Initially spiked to **300M** due to release-day hype. Prices soon plunged to below **20M** within days—a sharp correction typical of overhyped boss drops. - **January 2022**: Removal of the Duel Arena funneled wealth into PvM-related items and utility tools. This boosted Croesus loot prices temporarily, raising the Foultorch to **~259M**. - **September 2022 Onwards**: Fresh Start Worlds brought accessibility to new players, flattening demand for niche, high-level items like the Foultorch. A period of stability ensued (~114M). - **2023 Recovery**: High-DPS Necromancy builds made refined skilling tools lucrative again, catapulting prices back near **200M+**. 3. **Prediction**: - **June - August 2024**: **Eventual correction** likely, with Necromancy's residual effects fading. Additionally, the RuneScape economy is projected to deal with hyperinflation tied to the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**. Anticipated price: **140-180M** as newer updates compete for attention. - **September - November 2024**: Stabilization as demand returns due to potential interest stemming from future **Sanctum of Rebirth combat updates** and high-level skilling trends. Peak price could reach **200-210M**, especially as Jagex implements GP sinks (new tax on the Grand Exchange post-Max Cash exploit). #### **Flipping Margins** The Croesus Foultorch is not a high-volume item; therefore, flipping it requires patience. However, its periodic spikes in interest create excellent opportunities for profit: - **Typical Margin**: Between **5-15M per flip** depending on market liquidity. Margins scale higher during update hype (e.g., Necromancy), where daily volatility can add **20-30M+** between buy/sell offers. - **Best Times to Flip**: Weekdays early morning (lower competition buying) and directly after announced updates (players rushing to purchase). #### **Similar Items to Consider** 1. **Tagga's Corehammer** - Another tool rewarded from the Croesus Front. Its demand parallels the Foultorch but targets different skills, diversifying your portfolio while flipping. 2. **Sirenic Scales/Armour** - Necromancy's focus on combat efficiency has revived materials for high-tier gear. Sirenic products correlate well with Foultorch price rises during combat update cycles. 3. **Elder Rune Bars** - Provides broader utility as an F2P/low-level skilling option while benefiting from the same trends as Foultorch in high-level skilling/metallurgy events. 4. **Grace of the Elves** - Utility item aligned with skilling. Players who invest in Foultorch likely run a Grace setup, creating indirect synergy for price speculation. #### **Seasonal Outcomes on Price** 1. **Positive Seasons**: - **Skill-heavy content updates**: Updates like tool upgrades, new bosses (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth**), or integration with larger game systems drive a buyer's market. - **Post-GP Sink Updates**: Events reducing excess gold in the economy (e.g., Treasure Hunter revisions) refocus wealth toward functional endgame items. 2. **Negative Seasons**: - **Duplication Glitches or GP Injections**: RuneScape's economy suffers from periodic inflation (e.g., **Rollback Dupe**) which tanks demand for utility-based items. - **Low Player Engagement**: Events like **Hero Pass Backlash** or OSRS focus dilute active RS3 players, reducing interest in PvM/skilling. Foultorch is particularly vulnerable to these shifts. #### **Final Insight** The Foultorch will remain a high-relevance tool for skilling specialists, maintaining a floor price between **100-130M** in weaker economies and spiking **180-220M** under ideal conditions. For speculative investors, diversifying alongside items like Tagga’s Corehammer, Grace of the Elves, or Elder Rune Bars ensures hedging against resource market fluctuations. Watch for updates in elite skilling methods or game economies to anticipate tipping points.