### Item Overview: **Abomination Cape** The **Abomination Cape** is a powerful melee-oriented item introduced on **October 17, 2022** as a rare drop from the Abomination boss fight, accessed via the Abomination Cave. It boasts strong offensive stats ideal for PvM enthusiasts, particularly those focusing on melee DPS. While overshadowed by the Shadow-Dyed Max Cape in raw stats, its relative rarity, boss-specific origin, and aesthetic have made it a sought-after prestige item. ### Rarity and Demand The cape remains one of the rarest non-cosmetic items in RuneScape 3. Its acquisition requires combat proficiency and patience, as the drop rate is low. This exclusivity, coupled with its untradeable status once equipped, creates natural long-term demand from collectors and PvM-focused players. Despite being "rare," demand isn’t as volatile as discontinued rares, and it usually sees steady, event-driven price movements. --- ### **Price Trends & Historical Analysis** #### Price Chart Insights: Analyzing the given price data alongside historical RuneScape events provides a clearer understanding of its market behavior: 1. **Initial Stabilization (2021–2022)**: By late 2021 and early 2022, RuneScape's economic instability (triggered by duplication glitches and inflation from mass in-game GP influx) saw prices for high-tier items surge to counteract weakened gold value. Between release (October 2022) and early 2023, the cape climbed into a comfortable price range around **1.5B–1.8B GP**. 2. **2023: Necromancy and Macrodisruptions** Mid-2023 saw a slight price increase to **~2B GP,** influenced by updates like Necromancy (higher combat levels, PvM meta shifts) and scarcity caused by players hoarding for melee builds. However, the introduction of the **Hero Pass backlash** alongside consistent gold inflation led to temporary sell-offs. By late 2023, the cape returned to **~1.6B GP.** 3. **2024: Economic Chaos and Rebound** Updates like Treasure Hunter GP prizes and the **Max Cash exploit in May** flooded the market, blasting gold value down. The cape dropped to an all-time low of **1.6B GP (October 5, 2024)** after a prior rebound spiked its price to **2.6B GP (June–July 2024).** Increased pressure from PvM equipment introduced with the **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** also caused players to reprioritize spending. --- ### **Price Prediction (Short-to Mid-Term Outlook)** #### Factors Impacting Future Valuation: 1. **Gold Inflation Events:** Recent exploits (e.g., Max Cash bug and upcoming dupes) suggest further GP introduction, deflating gold vs. item value. Expect **gradual upward pricing beyond 2B GP**. 2. **Demand Boost from Meta Changes:** The upcoming **combat update (March 2024)** could reintroduce Abomination Cape as a BiS melee choice, adding upwards speculation. 3. **PvM Rework Impact:** With more content updates focusing on skilling and boss encounters (**Mining & Smithing, Sanctum**), interested PvMers will repurchase high-tier gear. 4. **Collector Hoarding:** Historically, mid-2023 and late 2024 both emphasize cyclic capes hoarded during "pre-rare" spikes. #### Price Projection: - **Late 2024:** ~2.0B–2.2B GP as more inflation dives stabilizes. - **Mid-2025:** Likely recovery curve to **~2.5B–2.7B GP**, as duping events (e.g., November GIM bug) become less market-impactful. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Abomination Cape offers decent flipping potential due to its semi-liquid nature. Margins typically range from **50M–150M GP** during ordinary weeks and **150M–250M GP** during patch-specific spikes (e.g., boss/skill overhauls). For best results: - **Buy-in Timing:** Snag the cape after inflation-related updates or during PvM mechanic changes where other items (like dyed armor) spike in priority. - **Sell Strategy:** Sell strategically in anticipation of Treasure Hunter updates where demand for combat items rises. --- ### **Alternative Investment Options** 1. **Comparable Items for Diversified Flipping:** - **Essence of Finality Amulet**: Versatile with frequent spikes due to meta updates. - **Cryptbloom Pieces**: Remain in constant PvM demand and react well to combat system changes. - **Shadow-Dyed Pieces (e.g., Capes, Tectonic)**: Reliable inflation-resistant stores of wealth. 2. **Seasonal Alternatives:** - **Elder God Wars Weapons (e.g., Fractured Staff)**: Safe choices pre-major updates. - **Discontinued Rares (e.g., Christmas Scythe)** during Treasure Hunter GP events. --- ### **Seasonality and Timing** #### Positive Price Movement (Increases): - **Q1-Q2 Behavior:** Items spike before and shortly after major combat updates (due to demand for PvM builds or preemptive meta speculation). Example: Combat overhaul (March 2024). - **Holiday-period Hoarding:** Skilling/promotion-heavy weeks lead to value rises during long-term gold devaluation or wealth redistribution cycles. #### Negative Price Behavior (Decreases): - **Duplication Bugs**: Any Treasure Hunter or banking updates tie closely with dupes, introducing GP sink chaos. More common near **mid-Q2 or Q4** events. - **Content-Inferior Drops:** High-scaling melee bosses like **Sanctum releases** depreciate unless new buffs occur. By preparing purchases around duplication detectability early quarter but seasonal PvM pre-2025!