### **Summary of the Ancient Hilt (TzekHaar Front)** The **Ancient Hilt**, introduced with the **TzekHaar Front** update (November 2021), is a rare component used to create the **Ek-ZekKil**, an upgraded TzekHaar-themed two-handed sword in RuneScape 3. This item is primarily dropped from **The Arch-Glacor** at its highest enrage levels and has since remained one of the most sought-after weapon components for high-end PvMers due to its immense power and utility for DPS-based melee builds. Its rarity scales with enrage percentage, making it particularly challenging to obtain, especially since players must consistently survive the Arch-Glacor's more punishing mechanics at higher enrage thresholds. It first entered the market in October 2021, peaking at approximately **2.4B gold on release**, driven by gold surpluses after the rollback dupe. Since then, its value has followed a volatile trajectory, reflecting balancing adjustments, surges in gold supply, and evolving PvM metas. --- ### **Overall Rarity** - **Drop Availability:** Very rare drop from an endgame boss at high enrages. - **Market Dynamics:** Reliant on a mix of hardcore PvM players farming the Arch-Glacor and new PvMers attempting it at moderate enrages. - **Economic Shocks:** Its price is disproportionately sensitive to in-game gold surges or item dumps during dupes/updates, as seen during events like the **Scrimshaw Dupe (Jan 2023)** and **Max Cash Update Exploit (2024)**. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis** Here’s a breakdown of historical price trends for the Ancient Hilt: 1. **November 9, 2021 - Deforestation of Gold via Dupes:** - Opening price: ~1.7B to 2.4B, inflated due to the **rollback dupe** six days prior injecting trillions of gold into the economy, amplifying market demand for newly released high-end items. 2. **2022 - Stabilization Phase:** - **Peak Prices in Q1:** As initial supply bottlenecks eased, the hilt retained high prices (~1.04B-900M range post-February). The **Duel Arena removal** (January 2022) inadvertently limited gambling-driven gold loss, stabilizing prices. - **Moderate Declines by Mid-Year:** Value dropped toward ~650M as more players mastered the Arch-Glacor mechanics and normalized the influx of Hilts into the economy. The **Fresh Start Worlds (Sep 2022)** event failed to drastically impact prices, as it targeted newer players unlikely to affect the high-tier item market. 3. **2023 - Disruption and Recovery:** - **Scrimshaw Dupe & Player Hacks:** January 2023 saw prices dip to ~381M due to excessive gold floods (700B+/hour Scrimshaw botters) and mass market instability from hacked accounts. The subsequent recovery created steady pricing (~400-410M) into late 2023. - Modest **spike** in early 2023 (~500M) due to PvM enthusiasts adopting Necromancy (August), which reinvigorated bossing demand. 4. **2024 - Recent Trends:** - Stable **growth mid-2024** (~481M in May) preceding exploitation of Treasure Hunter rewards (**April**) and **Max Cash Exploit (May)**, which again saw trillions of GP dumped into the economy. - Current price: ~335M (December 2024). This marks its lowest valuation since launch, indicating market saturation combined with massive inflation in GP pools outweighing players' spending power. --- ### **Price Prediction for the Next Few Months (2024-2025)** Based on historical precedents and recent economic shifts: 1. **Short-Term (0-3 Months)**: - Expect the Ancient Hilt to stabilize at **300-370M** by early 2025. The notable post-dupe inflation combined with the market glut will restrict steep upward momentum but also keep prices from dropping further unless another exploit occurs. - The **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** and **Mining/Smithing (August 2024)** rework introduced higher-end PvE competitions, which may suppress demand for older TzekHaar-tier weapons, applying sustained downward pressure. 2. **Mid-Term (3-6 Months)**: - Prices could **rebound to ~400-450M** by mid-2025, spurred by any of the following: - A new combat balancing update reinvigorating melee weapon metas. - Introduction of GP "sinks" or nerfs to Treasure Hunter GP injections, reducing gold accumulation across players. - However, another major dupe or exploit (such as the **GIM Bank Bug in Nov 2024**) could suppress these gains. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** - **2024 Averages:** - **Spread:** ~10-20M profit on smaller trades near market price (~335-350M buy-in range). - **Peak-Season Margins:** Extends to 30-50M during high transaction periods (e.g., following major PvM gear releases like Sanctum of Rebirth). - **Risk:** Flipping effectiveness drops heavily during updates involving gold generation (i.e., Treasure Hunter exploits), as value corrections will outpace transaction activity. --- ### **Recommended Similar Investments** For diverse risk control or similar profit opportunities: 1. **Ek-ZekKil Sword:** Adding the completed weapon to your portfolio captures higher-value trades (~700M-1B during peak PvM interest). 2. **Kerapac's Wrist Wraps:** Consistently popular due to **special attack compatibility** for both PvM and PvP. 3. **Croesus-specific Gear:** Items such as the **Fractured Staff of Armadyl** see correlated demand spikes given their overlapping player bases. 4. **Necromancy-Era Rares:** Components like **Soulsplit Beams** have lower buy-ins but ride similar combat-update-centric waves. --- ### **Seasonal Impacts on Price Trends** - **Positive Seasons:** - **January–March:** Post-event updates (e.g., **combat reworks**) historically lead to increased demand due to new metas and PvM competition. - **July–August:** PvM expansions generate short-term spikes in demand for powerful weapons, indirectly influencing Hilts. - **Negative Seasons:** - **Post-Dupe Recovery (April–June):** Markets are sluggish after large gold injections, making it harder for items to recover their intrinsic value. - **Decembers:** Events like the **Black Partyhat (Dec 2023)** undermine high-end gear spending as players divert GP toward collectibles or cosmetics. --- In conclusion, the Ancient Hilt remains a high-risk, high-reward investment paralleling gold supply and PvM content updates. It thrives on scarcity balanced by economic stability, making it ideal for flips or long-term stability bets tied to combat system overhauls.