### **Flower Hairpin Token Analysis** **Summary & Rarity** The Flower Hairpin Token is a cosmetic override token, primarily sought for its aesthetic value. It was introduced into RuneScape via Treasure Hunter on **May 23, 2022**, tied to spring-themed events and promotions. Its initial availability through Treasure Hunter means it started as moderately rare but accessible. As it transitioned to the secondary market, demand stabilized among cosmetic collectors and investors. The item’s rarity increases over time as most players consume tokens rather than resell them, leading to dwindling supply on the Grand Exchange. --- ### **Price History Analysis** 1. **2022 Initial Spike and Decline**: - The token began trending at **5,000,000 GP** upon its release or shortly thereafter (June 2022). This price spike was primarily driven by short-term speculators who anticipated higher prices later. However, as more tokens entered the economy through Treasure Hunter, the price plummeted within weeks, bottoming out near **187,000 GP by July**. - This trend is characteristic of Treasure Hunter cosmetics with delayed appeal: speculators initially overvalue their rarity, but mass distribution drives the price down. 2. **2022 to 2023 Recovery**: - **Late 2022**: With the introduction of Fresh Start Worlds (September), demand rose for rare or niche cosmetic items, pushing the price to **843,849 GP by October 21, 2022**. Fresh Start Worlds encouraged players to collect or invest in exclusives for new characters, artificially inflating demand. - **January 2023 Price Surge**: A sharp spike from **400,000 GP (December 2022)** to **14,900,000 GP (January 2023)** correlates with the **Scrimshaw Duplication Exploit (January 29, 2023)**. The exploit flooded the economy with excess disposable gold, which drove up prices of luxury items, including rare cosmetics like the Flower Hairpin Token. 3. **Steady Decline in 2023**: - After peaking, the broader economy stabilized, leading to token prices correcting down to around **1,211,871 GP by May 2023**. As no significant updates specifically impacted token demand between mid-2023 and early 2024, the price remained subdued. 4. **Current Situation and 2024 Prediction**: - Based on historical patterns, the **current average price of ~1,200,000 GP** reflects low speculative interest but steady collector demand. Minor fluctuations could occur, but significant spikes are unlikely in the absence of notable economy disruptions or related promotional events. --- ### **Price Prediction for the Next Few Months** 1. **Short-Term (1–3 Months)**: - Price likely to hover around **1,000,000–1,500,000 GP** as there are no known upcoming promotional cycles involving similar tokens or massive economic distortions. - If a new cosmetic Treasure Hunter event launches or collector interest rises due to a related holiday season, the price could spike slightly beyond **1,700,000 GP**. 2. **Medium-Term (3–6 Months)**: - The release of **Easter 2024 content (April)** involving new spring-themed rewards may revive interest in past "spring-like" cosmetics such as the Flower Hairpin. This seasonal hype could push prices toward **2,000,000 GP**, contingent on token scarcity. - Long-term price stability is possible if Treasure Hunter once again reintroduces older cosmetics via prismatic or rerun promotions, potentially dropping prices to **700,000–1,000,000 GP**. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Given the item's stability at ~1,200,000 GP, flipping remains feasible for minor profits depending on timing: - **Buy Price**: Aim to acquire Flower Hairpin Tokens at or below **1,050,000 GP**, which can be found during off-peak Treasure Hunter promotions or through direct player trades. - **Sell Price**: Aim to resell for **1,400,000 GP** during periods of demand (e.g., spring holidays), generating an average **350,000 GP profit per unit**. *Marginal risk exists during sudden economic instability, where rapid inflation (or deflation) can unpredictably disrupt flips.* --- ### **Comparable Items to Invest In** 1. **Seasonal and Treasure Hunter Tokens**: - **Blossom Hairpin Token** (another spring-themed override): Historically increases in value prior to Easter or summer updates. - **Butterfly Aura Token**: Often correlated with spring promotions; similar historical price movements. 2. **Other Rare Treasure Hunter Exclusives**: - **Fishing Cap Token**: Solid long-term investment due to its nostalgia pull. - **Gleaming Keepsake Keys**: These consumables see surges when new cosmetic outfits are added to override libraries. --- ### **Seasonal Trends Analysis** 1. **Positive Outcomes**: Seasons that involve cosmetics, springtime events (April–May), and Fresh Start components typically lead to prime prices for tokens, especially ones with unique overriding appeal. Easter typically triggers spikes for floral cosmetics due to availability windows shrinking, causing hoarding. 2. **Negative Outcomes**: Treasure Hunter re-releases or April Fool’s dupes of cosmetic items (referencing 2024’s Gummy Egg rewards dupe) result in tanking prices for highly comparable items. Pay close attention to Jagex announcements to avoid holding stock during reintroductions. --- In summary, the Flower Hairpin Token remains a mid-value collectible with speculative potential during specific seasonal periods. Investors aiming to maximize returns should monitor upcoming Treasure Hunter cycles, while opportunistic flippers can find consistent, if modest, profits.