### **Summary of Bottom of the Last Guardian's Bow:** The Bottom of the Last Guardian's Bow is a component of the high-tier **Last Guardian's Bow**, designed for endgame players to assemble one of the most powerful two-handed ranged weapons in RuneScape 3. Released during the **March 2023 combat update** as part of RuneScape's ongoing Tier 95 content, the bow requires players to gather multiple parts, typically from challenging PvM bosses or content such as the **Zamorak, Lord of Chaos boss** or other Elder God Wars areas. The rarity of this item lies in its low drop rate, combined with its necessity for players aiming to optimize their combat setups. ### **Release & Availability:** - **Release Date:** March 2023 (Combat Update). - **Rarity:** Extremely rare, tied to endgame PvM content with competitive drop mechanics. - **Nature of Supply:** Limited, bottlenecked by elite PvM activities and the necessity of other rare components to complete the bow. The historical pricing movement reflects the competitive nature of PvM gearing, with prices showing volatility during major content updates, gold inflation events, and dupe-induced market disturbances. --- ### **Price Analysis & Predictions:** #### Historical Price Timeline: - **Initial Peak (July 2022–early 2023):** Prices exceeded **2.5B–5.5B GP**, driven by scarcity, market hype, and gold inflation after events like the 2022 rollback dupe and Fresh Start Worlds. - **Mid-2023 Correction:** Post-necromancy combat system updates (Aug 2023), the price stabilized between **1.5B–2.0B GP**, driven by increased supply as players adapted to new combat changes and improved drop rate understanding. - **Big Drop Pre-2024 (End 2023):** The price sharply decreased to **405M GP** by December 2024, following a series of dupes (e.g., Max Cash exploit in May 2024), gold inflation, and decreasing demand as the meta shifted. #### Insights into Spikes/Dips: 1. **Spikes:** - **July 2023:** The Red Portal Lure bug removed significant amounts of high-value items from circulation, raising demand for reliable PvM items like the Last Guardian's Bow. - **March 2023 Combat Update:** Enhanced demand for Tier 95 ranged setups boosted the value of components such as the Bottom of the Bow. - **Content-Driven Peaks:** Updates adding bosses or improving high-level ranged mechanics typically increase demand. 2. **Dips:** - **Gold Inflation:** Events like the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** diluted gold value, reducing the real-world value of high-end items. - **Supply Over Time:** Gradual discoveries of farming methods or drop exploits reduced scarcity after 2023. #### Future Forecast: Based on historical trends, the **Bottom of the Last Guardian's Bow** will likely follow these dynamics over the next few months: - **Short-Term (3–6 months):** Expect minor recovery from **405M GP** to **500–650M GP** as dupes stabilize post-November 2024, and any high-tier content refresh (e.g., raids or global boss reworks) generates gear demand. - **Potential Spike Trigger:** If combat mechanics (e.g., **new ranged abilities or Masterwork upgrades**) align with ranged setups, this item could jump to **700M–1B GP**. - **Risk Factor:** If dupes or GP inflation events continue, prices may stagnate or drop further to **350M GP**. --- ### **Flipping Margins & Profitability:** Typical flipping margins for the Bottom of the Last Guardian's Bow hover around **3–8% per transaction** in stable market conditions. However, during volatile periods (e.g., around boss and combat updates), margins can spike to **10–15%**, especially if you leverage short-term crashes (e.g., post-duplication exploits) to buy low. - **Recommended Buy Price (Dec 2024):** ~405M–420M GP. - **Sell Goal (Q1 2025):** ~550M–600M GP. **Flipping Tips:** - Monitor update teasers from Jagex for upcoming boss or ranged meta shifts. - Focus on flipping during weekends, when PvM-focused players are most active. - Consider bulk buying during system exploits but immediately resell in small quantities during market recovery to avoid long-term depreciation risks. --- ### **Related Items to Invest In:** Diversification can protect you from large losses while capitalizing on similar trends. Here are a few correlated items to consider: 1. **Top of the Last Guardian's Bow / Stabilizer (other components):** - Also required for the full weapon; often spikes together with the Bottom piece. - Historically follows the same price trajectory but with more abrupt volatility. - Current Price Range: **650–750M GP.** 2. **Erebus Bowstrings (Prestige-enhancing ranged component):** - Tied to high-end players optimizing Tier 95 builds. - Current Price Range: **300–400M GP**; relatively stable. 3. **Fractured Arrow Shafts (PvM Consumable):** - High volume, mid-cost item; easily flipped. - Current flipping margins: **8–12%.** 4. **Arch-Glacor Drops:** - Items like **Glacyte Cores** benefit from similar endgame PvM demand and meta updates. --- ### **Seasonality Factors:** RuneScape markets experience recurring seasonal trends that influence prices: 1. **Positive Price Drivers:** - **December–February:** Increased activity during holiday events and double XP weeks lead to heightened demand for PvM-ready setups. - **Post-Content Releases:** Updates introducing new bosses, mechanics, or combat reworks (e.g., Sanctum of Rebirth in July 2024) drive demand. 2. **Negative Price Drivers:** - **Duplication Events:** Typically followed by market crashes and prolonged recovery periods (e.g., Nov 2022–Jan 2023). - **End-of-Year Cashouts:** Wealthy players offload high-tier items to prepare for treasure hunter promos or new rares (e.g., Black Partyhat release in Dec 2023). --- ### **Conclusion:** The **Bottom of the Last Guardian's Bow**, though currently at historically low prices (~405M), remains a key investment for long-term profit in RuneScape's PvM market. With high future demand potential from combat updates and ranged-related content, the item is primed for a recovery to **500–650M GP** in early 2025. Pair its acquisition with related high-value components and focus on flipping during micro-crashes to maximize profitability. Avoid over-leveraging during dupe-heavy periods, as these can take months to stabilize.