### **Item Overview: Champions Hurricane Cosmetic Ability Scroll** - **Summary:** The Champions Hurricane Cosmetic Ability Scroll unlocks a cosmetic ability that alters the animation of the Hurricane ability, a popular skill in melee combat rotations. While purely aesthetic, it is highly sought after due to its prestige as a rare Treasure Hunter reward with limited releases. - **Release Date:** Introduced via Treasure Hunter on **July 19, 2022** during the "Legends Revealed" promotion, along with other cosmetic ability scrolls tied to iconic melee actions. - **Rarity:** This item is **very rare**, as Treasure Hunter promotions sporadically rotate and reintroduce such items. Its exclusivity has made it a status symbol, and its demand often exceeds its supply. Unlike consumables, once unlocked, the player cannot resell it, reducing overall trading stock over time. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis** The price history of the Champions Hurricane Cosmetic Ability Scroll reflects market fluctuations driven by Jagex updates, gold inflation, and event cycles. Notable trends include: 1. **Early Pricing Phase (July 2022):** - Initially reached **250M GP** (Treasure Hunter hype) after release but dropped sharply to **~60M GP** as players offloaded excess supply. - The sudden peaks in **August 2022** (notably **~200M GP**) were likely driven by speculative buying and scarcity of newly added keys as Fresh Start Worlds loomed. 2. **Long-Term Stable Rise (October 2022 – March 2023):** - A steady climb to **~180M – 200M GP** followed the removal of Wilderness PvP and the holiday supply drought. The Wilderness update likely reduced bot activity, tightening the GP supply. - **January 2023’s dip to ~106M GP:** Likely due to the Scrimshaw dupe, which temporarily tanked mid-tier rare items amid excess GP flooding. 3. **Post-Necromancy Era (July 2023 – December 2023):** - The introduction of Necromancy spurred an increase in demand for melee-adjacent prestige items, leading to a jump to **~245M – 300M GP** by December 2023. - The release of rare cosmetic items alongside the **Black Partyhat in December 2023** likely primed collectors to divest into high-value cosmetics, further strengthening demand. --- ### **Price Prediction (December 2023 – August 2024)** 1. **Short-Term (3 months):** - With the **March 2024 combat update**, melee-centric cosmetics are expected to surge in demand, alongside potentially increased usability of the Hurricane ability in PvM rotations. - Estimated price range: **330M – 360M GP** by April 2024. 2. **Mid-Term (6–9 months):** - After the hype of the combat overhaul settles, additional Treasure Hunter promos or a **cosmetic re-release** could temporarily suppress the price. However, given the item's rarity and identical trends from the Necromancy bump in mid-2023, this dip will likely recover. - Estimated price range post-dip: **280M – 310M GP** by July–August 2024. 3. **Potential Risks:** - A **duplication exploit** or **Treasure Hunter promo** that includes this cosmetic would crash prices, possibly bringing it down to **~150M–200M GP**. Monitor Jagex announcements closely. --- ### **Flipping Margins** - Using historical data: **10–25% flipping margins** are achievable in high-volatility periods, particularly before announcements like combat updates or Treasure Hunter sales. - **Optimal flipping times:** - Buy during mid-price stabilization waves (e.g., **200M GP** in July 2023 before the Necromancy wave). - Sell during predictable hyper spikes (e.g., **300M GP spikes near December 2023 holidays**). - Example: Purchase at **245M GP**, sell at **300M GP+** for **22.5% margin**. --- ### **Similar Items for Portfolio Diversification** 1. **Bladed Dive Cosmetic Ability Scroll:** Regularly fluctuates similar to Champions Hurricane but with slightly lower peaks due to its general abundance in Treasure Hunter. 2. **Greater Sunshine and Death’s Swiftness Cosmetic Scrolls:** These retain a strong following due to high-demand uses in both PvM and PvP. Their peaks generally align with major combat updates. 3. **Golden Partyhat Shard or Hybrid Tokens (e.g., Ice-Dyed tokens):** Offer similarly high margins during high-speculation periods around holidays or new content. --- ### **Seasonal Impact on Prices** - **Positive Seasonal Trends:** - Pre-Christmas Events (December): High player influx drives speculative buying. - Major Combat Updates (March/April): Melee updates push Hurricane scroll into PvM metas, raising demand. - Summer Surge (July/August): Playerbase peaks due to time off, pushing collectibles upward. - **Negative Seasonal Trends:** - Early-Year Dupe Seasons (January): Historically, exploit events like the **January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe** crash mid-tier rare markets. - Post-Holiday Burnout (February–Mid-March): General market slows as players recover from high GP spending. **Advice:** Monitor **Treasure Hunter calendar releases** and pair acquisitions of the Champions Hurricane scroll with unique tokens during event lulls (e.g., post-Holiday dips in February) for maximum flipping margins. Long-term, this item remains an ultra-rare, luxury collectible with high rebound potential.