### Item Summary, Release Details, and Rarity: The **Azure Dragonbreath Cosmetic Ability Scroll** is a rare and sought-after cosmetic scroll that unlocks a visually stunning ability skin for the Dragonbreath attack in all three combat styles. It was first introduced via **Treasure Hunter promotions** in mid-2022 during limited-time events themed around dragons. Its rarity stems from its discontinuation post-promotion and the lack of future indications from Jagex regarding re-releases, making it a speculative investment for collectors and merchants. ### Historical Price Analysis: The price of the scroll shows extreme volatility, influenced by macroeconomic changes in RuneScape, GP dupes, and large game updates. Here’s a breakdown: 1. **2022 Initial Sale to Stabilization:** - The scroll debuted during Treasure Hunter with a price fluctuation around **400-600M GP** due to the large influx of supply. - **July 2022** saw a dip to **250M GP**, exacerbated by an apparent surplus from end-of-promo liquidation. Player confidence in speculative investments was low at the time due to other competing Treasure Hunter promotions (*Sack of Effigies*). - By **late 2022**, **Fresh Start Worlds (FSW)** created a GP sink, raising demand for premium collectibles. Prices climbed to **900-950M GP** in October. 2. **2023 Trauma and Decline:** - The **700B Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)** devalued the scroll's desirability, with prices peaking **above 2B GP** briefly before collapsing. This was an artificial inflation caused by panic-buying from impacted merchants. - When the **Necromancy skill** launched in August 2023, players dumped rare items in favor of upgrades, causing massive liquidations. The scroll saw a sharp correction to around **90M GP** by December, compounded further by the **Black Partyhat release**, which diverted speculative capital toward the new rare. 3. **2024 Recovery and Speculative Dips:** - Prices showed notable recovery into **Q1/Q2 of 2024**, peaking at **200M GP (June)** as its cosmetic status gained favor among PvM/Necromancy players using high-visibility combat animations. However, the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** injected trillions into the economy, making prices unstable, and a smaller dip was caused by the **Easter dupe fiasco (April 2024)**. ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months): 1. **Short-Term (Post-2024 Summer):** With the **Sanctum of Rebirth** (July 2024) and **Mining & Smithing rework (August 2024)** siphoning attention toward newly released rewards, the scroll's value should enter a dip cycle into **late Q3 2024**, potentially stabilizing between **175-190M GP** as speculators divest. 2. **Medium-Term (End of 2024):** Historically, rare items experience price appreciation post-major updates due to player burnout reducing active supply. By **November 2024**, a recovery toward **210-240M GP** is likely due to wealth redistribution and speculative buying ahead of anticipated **Christmas rares**. 3. **Long-Term (2025 Onwards):** If the **Azure Dragonbreath scroll** remains unreleased or coupled with Jagex removing cosmetics from Treasure Hunter promotions, its value could grow toward the **300-400M GP** range in 2025 due to hoarding-driven scarcity. ### Flipping Margins: Azure Dragonbreath shows **flipping volatility**, particularly during liquidations. In calm markets, typical margins come in at **5-10M GP per flip**, but high-trade-traffic periods (like seasonal promo dump-offs) can widen margins to **20-30M GP**. Merchants with substantial gold resources should focus on buying dips during **update-heavy months** (e.g., August rework impact) and unloading into **recovering market periods** like December/early January. ### Similar Items to Pair Investments: 1. **Ghostly Walk Animation Token (Cosmetic)**: Another meta-rare, traded by collectors due to its exclusivity and broad cosmetic appeal. 2. **Ice Dye**: Like the Azure Dragonbreath, Ice Dye cosmetics are thematically similar and appeal to similar cosmetic-focused players. Prices are volatile but predictable surrounding PvM updates that increase staff and wand usage. 3. **Black Partyhat**: Newly discontinued rares like the Black Partyhat show immense flipping potential when timed around holiday events where speculative demand spikes. ### Seasonal Trends: 1. **Positive Seasonal Outcomes:** - **December-January**: Holiday season sees renewed interest in limited-time cosmetics and rares after the Christmas drops. Azure Dragonbreath prices should rally here. - **Post-Major-skilling Events (e.g., Mining & Smithing rework)**: Post-update wealth creation cycles provide stability and slight appreciation. 2. **Negative Seasonal Outcomes:** - **Treasure Hunter Promo Season (Summer/Autumn)**: Treasure Hunter often saturates the market with newer must-haves, hurting speculative demand for cosmetics like Dragonbreath. - **PvM-centric Updates (e.g., Necromancy and Rebirth)**: Black Friday-type rushes create overselling of less-needed assets like Azure Dragonbreath scrolls, temporarily dampening prices. ### Final Advice: Investors should use the scroll’s historical patterns of sharp spikes post-market panic and dips during updates or promotional periods to profit. Merchanting strategies should involve pairing with related items (like Ice Dye) during low-volume markets. Given the general rarity of discontinued Treasure Hunter rewards, expect higher average returns over the long term as supply dwindles and Jagex solidifies its non-recycling policy for its best cosmetics.