### **Abyssal Scourge Summary and Rarity** The **Abyssal Scourge** is a **tier 92 melee weapon** introduced into RuneScape 3 on **January 4, 2022**, coinciding with the removal of the Duel Arena. It serves as a successor of sorts to the Abyssal Whip and is widely sought after for its **passive effect, Abyssal Parasite**, which applies a bleed that extends the duration of all melee bleeds on the target by 1.2 seconds per proc. This makes it highly valuable in high-level PvM, especially in conjunction with bleed-centric abilities like **Slaughter** and **Dismember**. In terms of rarity, the Scourge drops from the **Abyssal Lords**, which require **95 Slayer** and can only be fought after completing the Slayer master cape perk or a special Slayer task. Combining this requirement with the relatively low drop rate (~1/500 or worse depending on the rune use in the fight) makes it both exclusive and consistently in demand by PvMers. ### **Historical Performance and Analysis** From the **price dataset**, the Abyssal Scourge has shown significant volatility over time, influenced by game updates, gold inflation, and gameplay meta changes: 1. **Initial Price Boom (August-December 2022)**: - Released at a peak near **250M**, prices stabilized above **240M** until late 2022. This was likely sustained by excessive demand as melee was the dominant DPS style. - The launch of **Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)** bolstered general economic activity, especially mid-range investments, driving prices temporarily higher. 2. **Stagnation and Decline (2023)**: - By **mid-2023**, the Scourge dropped below its initial frenzy-driven highs, reaching **200M-220M**, aligning with destabilizing influences like the **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)** introducing excessive wealth into the economy. Later in the year, **Necromancy combat changes (August 2023)** reduced melee dependency, further hurting demand. 3. **Late Inflations and Dips (2024)**: - Prices rebounded above **200M** briefly after the **Max Cash update (May 2024)** due to a GP influx, followed by a decline to **~100M** as Jagex strengthened GP sinks through **Treasure Hunter rewards**. Recent speculations suggest permanent Scourge saturation due to high-end PvMers banking multiples during profitable runs with the Abyssal Lords. ### **Price Prediction** Assuming current behaviors: - **Short-term (3 months)**: - Prices may dip to **85M-95M**, reflecting higher supplies as PvM bots grind more Scourges, combined with ongoing economic pressures from the **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)**. - Combat meta **updates for December 2024** could lend mild support if melee becomes favored again. - **Medium-term (6 months)**: - Expect rebalancing to ~130M as casual PvMers absorb long-term demand or if the Abyssal Parasite effect is updated. Factors influencing future price increases: - **Buff predictions** to the Scourge’s passive or new synergistic content favoring bleed mechanics. ### **Flipping Margins** Currently, flipping margins for the Abyssal Scourge are thin due to high fluctuations and market activity among PvM merchants. The typical **active flipping margin** is roughly **3-7M** per trade when buying around active trade spikes. However: - High inventory thresholds during GP crashes (e.g., **unexpected gold dupes**) lead to bid margins potentially widening to **10-20M**. For advanced flipping: 1. **Hold during patch announcements**—combat changes often revitalize melee or PvM weapon demand. 2. Trade at **off-peak times (weekdays)** for minimal competition. ### **Similar Items to Watch** For diversification, coupling Abyssal Scourge flipping investments with these items can hedge risks: 1. **Ka’ari's Claw (T92)**: - A melee power weapon tied heavily to Necromancy synergy and high-end PvM. Valuable if Necromancy buffs alternately reconfigure the **damage meta**. 2. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl (T95)**: - A popular PvM weapon benefiting from Mage-dominant months following melee nerfs. Pairs well when Scourge prices dip. ### **Seasonal Patterns Impacting Prices** 1. **Positive Seasons**: - **Winter updates (November-February)**: Historically major combat overhaul patches land during this window, benefiting Scourge due to potential melee buffs. - Periods right after bot crackdowns see reduced Scourge surpluses. 2. **Negative Seasons**: - **Spring stagnation (March-May)**: Post-event gold inflation stabilizes, leading to broader item wealth balancing. - Seasonal supply bursts from Easter-like updates often flood markets (e.g., **Easter dupes, Gummy rewards, 2023’s Treasure Hunter event**). ### **Conclusion** The Abyssal Scourge remains a highly versatile melee weapon with fluctuating popularity tied to the evolving PvM and economic meta. While prices may bottom out near **85M**, long-term recovery could stabilize around **130M** with supportive updates or melee content buffs on the horizon. Strategic flipping and diversification into synergistic melee or Mage DPS weapons are essential for maintaining profitability in elite PvM markets.