### Contact Juggling Resting Token Analysis **Summary**: The Contact Juggling Resting Token unlocks a resting animation that features a character dynamically balancing contact spheres. It is a rare cosmetic item from Treasure Hunter promotions, which drives its intrinsic and speculative value. This token first appeared around early 2021 during a Treasure Hunter promo introduced alongside other resting tokens. Unlike more iconic rares, its lack of direct fame means it primarily attracts niche collectors or merchants focusing on limited-run tokens. **Release Date**: January 2021, during a Treasure Hunter cosmetic promotion. **Overall Rarity**: No longer obtainable through gameplay, making it discontinuously scarce. Its rarity increased after cycles of occasional re-releases, but it hasn’t gained the same cultural clout as more universally recognized rares. --- ### Price Prediction **Past Trends Overview**: 1. **Initial Spike (January 2021)**: Upon release, prices were volatile due to speculation and scarcity. The token peaked at 8M (rare for its category) due to immediate Treasure Hunter removal. 2. **Duplication Events (2021)**: Post-dupes in early-mid 2021 introduced an influx of GP into the economy. Consequently, the token experienced a bubble, followed by a correction to 2-3M by Q4 2021. 3. **Stagnation and Recovery (2022-2024)**: Persistent macroeconomic issues (like inflation due to dupes and GP rollbacks) caused this token to bottom out at ~300K (August 2022). It rebounded to 3.4M (Q2 2024), suggesting steady recovery due to increased nostalgic/speculative demand. **Key Historical Influences on Price**: - **Economic Rollbacks**: The 2021 and Jan/Feb 2023 GP duplication exploits crash the broader economy. Luxury goods like resting tokens dropped as merchants liquidated assets to recover liquid gold. - **Changes in Accessibility**: The removal of Duel Arena (Jan 2022) and wilderness PvP (Oct 2022) reduced the liquidity for merchanting-based profits. The Fresh Start Worlds (Sept 2022) failed to generate much demand for niche tokens. - **Re-releases**: Treasure Hunter occasionally reintroduces cosmetic resting tokens, which spikes supply and causes price dips—as seen in mid-2022. **Future Price Expectations (Q4 2024-Q1 2025)**: - After the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**, GP inflation surges due to hyper-liquidity, heavily motivating collectors to hedge their wealth in niche rares like this token. Simultaneously, the **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** and **Mining/Smithing rework (August 2024)** stimulated GP turnover, supporting speculative markets. - **Estimated Floor Price**: ~2.5M during a potential dip in late 2024 if new Treasure Hunter content competes for collector gold. - **Estimated Ceiling Price**: ~4M in Q1/Q2 2025 if disenfranchised GP-rich players return to collector markets following Q4 GP-sinks or nostalgic promo cycles. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins - **Low-Volume Markets**: Flipping resting tokens like this yields profit margins between 3-8%. - Example: Buying *Contact Juggling* tokens at 3.1M and flipping them at ~3.4M earns ~300K profit per trade. - Margins are narrow due to low supply and weak immediate demand but benefit from cyclical scarcity spikes. - **Best Times to Flip**: 1. **Post-Treasure Hunter Re-releases**: Tokens temporarily flood the market, creating buy opportunities by undercutting panic sellers. 2. **Pre-Update Speculative Runs**: Cosmetics often gain hype from Treasure Hunter-associated rumors, rewarding pre-update buyers. **Risk**: Price stagnation can trap liquid capital for extended periods. Restructure positions regularly if quick flips fail. --- ### Complementary Items to Monitor/Invest In **1. Other Resting Tokens**: - **Sword Boast Resting Token**: Similarly niche aesthetic with a recovering market after falling behind its competitors during previous updates. - **Troll Hugging Resting Token**: Gaining unique appeal among players seeking novelty animations, often overshadowed by more popular picks. **2. Treasure Hunter Cosmetics**: - **Aurora Dye**: Always rebounds post-recession in GP supplies and correlates to speculators hedging post-GP exploits. - **Golden Partyhat Shard Sets**: Although slower-moving, limited previous accessibility makes them long-term investments. **3. Seasonal Tie-Ins**: - **Holiday Cosmetics**: Santa hats, Christmas crackers, or rare emotes rely on recurring demand during annual events. --- ### Seasonal Price Sensitivities - **Positive Seasons for Growth**: - End-of-year events (Dec) often boost the speculative economy, as GIM bugs, Black Partyhat hunting, and rare cosmetics drive GP sinks. - Post-update markets following Necromancy-based mechanic expansions (or other skill-related changes) encourage players to diversify investments. - **Negative Seasons for Growth**: - Months following high-value Treasure Hunter re-releases, such as Easter or Halloween promos, often dilute the market for lower-volume rares. - Large GP inflations cause sudden, short-lived price spikes, but these almost always deflate once Jagex deploys GP sinks. In conclusion, the **Contact Juggling Resting Token** is a speculative mid-tier rare with consistent (albeit modest) cyclical growth. Patience and timing are critical to leveraging its market potential. Long-term profit involves pairing it with complementary investments like other Treasure Hunter rares or holiday collectibles during GP-rich periods.