### **Summary of the Dark Facet of Grace** The Dark Facet of Grace is one of the four "Dark Facets," a set of sought-after pocket slot items derived from the "Wen" books in the Glacier's Abomination encounter of the Elder God Wars Dungeon (introduced in 2022). Each facet grants potent passive effects when equipped. Specifically, the Dark Facet of Grace eliminates the adrenaline penalty from switching weapons, enabling smoother combat rotations and greatly enhancing DPS optimization in high-end PvE scenarios. It was released in the Elder God Wars Dungeon expansion (September 27, 2022, with the Croesus boss patch). Its rarity is tied to RNG drops from the Arch-Glacor fight, making the item one of the higher-value rewards in the game due to its limited supply and consistent demand among high-tier PvE players. --- ### **Rarity** The rarity of the Dark Facet of Grace stems from: 1. **Source Mechanics**: High-enrage Arch-Glacor kills offer significantly better drop rates, but not all players achieve these skill levels. 2. **Specialization**: Pocket slot items remain niche but aligned with high-end combat players, meaning the demand is driven by a relatively small but committed demographic. 3. **Emergent Saturation**: Re-introduction from over-farmed legacy events like "Fresh Start Worlds" (which reset loot ecosystems) periodically increases its availability. However, demand typically outpaces supply. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis** From the provided price data, the Dark Facet of Grace has experienced notable price fluctuations: 1. **Initial High (Oct 2022 - March 2023)**: - The item peaked at **2.1B (Oct 18, 2022)** after Wilderness PvP was removed, as attention shifted toward Elder God Wars content. Croesus boss hype temporarily reduced Glacor farming. - A sharp stabilization followed, leading to a **March 2023 average of ~1.8B GP**, prior to the early-2023 exploits. 2. **2023 Price Declines**: - The **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023)** and max-combat update for Necromancy (Aug 2023) flooded mid-tier PvM wealth, leading to volatility. By **late 2023 (~September), the price dropped to ~746M**, partly due to the introduction of other boss-focused drops diluting the unique utility of the Dark Facet. - Necromancy updates also led to a short-lived spike as combat retooling increased the relevance of adrenaline-dependent items mid-2023. 3. **2024 Stabilization**: - Following the **Treasure Hunter GP injections (April 2024)** and **Max Cash exploit abuse (May 2024)**, gold inflation reduced *effective* item rarity as player purchasing power surged. Prices reached **~650-750M during mid-2024**, with a slower trajectory upward after June's rebalance. 4. **Current Pricing & Trends**: - Data indicates a **713M GP average (Dec 2024)**. Recent price reduction corresponds to new PvM powercreep from the *Sanctum of Rebirth* and the undercutting market from systemic gold injection. --- ### **Price Prediction** Over the next 3-6 months, considering historical data and market conditions, the item’s price trajectory can be forecasted as follows: 1. **3-Month Projection (Early 2025)**: - Modest recovery to **~750-800M** as the economy stabilizes post-GIM dupe and PvM utility stabilizes. 2. **6-Month Projection (Mid-2025)**: - Likely inflation-driven stagnation unless another patch decreases combat-related quality-of-life barriers. Expect **700-850M**, depending on if the Arch-Glacor remains prominently farmed. **Key Risks to Prediction**: 1. **Necromancy meta**—If a major Necromancy rebalance occurs, it may devalue adrenaline-dependent switches. 2. **Combat Overhauls**—Future updates or nerfs to PvM weapon-switching could entirely remove the Facet's niche. --- ### **Flipping Margins** When flipping the Dark Facet of Grace: 1. **Buy/Sell Spread**: - Typical margins are **10-25M** for experienced merchants given the 5% Grand Exchange tax and relatively high liquidity (fast turnover due to PvM demand). Larger margins (up to 50M) appear during spikes or lulls. 2. **Optimal Flipping Timing**: - Key flipping potential emerges immediately **post-update patches** like Treasure Hunter events, which increase gold availability (boosting demand). Conversely, supply spikes (e.g., boss rework meta shifts) enable low buy-ins. --- ### **Complementary Investments** To balance portfolio risk: 1. **Similar Items**: - **Dark Facet of Luck**: Synergizes well with rare-drop-oriented PvM events. - **Essence of Finality Amulet**: Another niche combat item favored among high-tier PvMers. - **Anachronia Currency Pouch**: Slightly less expensive but tracks PvM participation closely. 2. **Bundled Strategies**: - Combine **PvM-centric gear** investments (e.g., Fractured Staff of Armadyl, Greater Ricochet) to leverage simultaneous demand boosts. --- ### **Seasonal Trends** 1. **Positive Trends (Price Increases)**: - **January-April** (Post-holiday spending and PvM events). - **Post-major skill releases**: Combat-centric patches often amplify investments tied to optimization (e.g., Easter 2024). 2. **Negative Trends (Price Drops)**: - **Preceding Economy Exploits**: Duplications or Treasure Hunter gold injection events typically suppress prices. - **Fresh Content Disruptions (Fall-Winter)**: Market saturation due to large-scale boss farm efforts. The Dark Facet of Grace consistently outperforms due to its utility but is vulnerable to overarching game balance decisions.