### **Summary, Release, and Rarity** The *Carrying Steins Resting Token* is a cosmetic wieldable item in RuneScape 3. It was initially released around early 2021, obtainable primarily as part of Treasure Hunter promotions. This token allows players to unlock the resting animation wherein the character holds a stein in a relaxed pose. Due to its situational appeal and niche utility, it was not a top-priority purchase for most players at release, causing an initially volatile market price followed by stabilization at lower levels once supply increased. This item’s rarity was on the medium-high side, as it wasn’t consistently available in Treasure Hunter, making it an infrequent item in circulation after its initial release. However, it’s not a "one-per-account" obscure collectible, leading to constant price adjustments based on market demand and economic pressures. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis and Trends** Looking at its historical price data from early 2021 to mid-2022: 1. **Initial Fluctuations (Jan 2021 - Apr 2021)**: The token saw extreme initial volatility, ranging from 9.9M shortly after release, plummeting to 2M GP within a week. This was attributed to: - Early Treasure Hunter over-saturation. - The rollback and recovery dupes (Jan 11 and Jan 19, 2021), which introduced trillions of gold and created artificial demand spikes, only for the item to crater once the dupe economy stabilized. 2. **Mid-Cycle Stability (Late 2021)**: Prices stabilized between 800K-900K GP during late 2021. The rise of the *Croesus Front* (Sep 2021) increased engagement with casual users, but the price fluctuations remained minimal — reflecting the token’s niche appeal rather than meta-defining utility. 3. **Secondary Growth Cycle (2022)**: In mid-2022, *Fresh Start Worlds* (Sept 2022) brought about a resurgence in cosmetic items, with price spikes hitting ~1.9M in August 2022 due to renewed interest in prestige-based market items. This faded as the Fresh Start hype cooled, with the token dropping back below the 1M range by early 2023. Key influencing factors included the *bond price increase* in May 2022, diverting GP flow from cosmetics toward functional currency purchases, and *Wilderness PvP removal* (Oct 2022), which shifted priorities away from flair items. --- ### **Future Price Prediction (Q4 2024 - Q1 2025)** With Necromancy combat permanency, ongoing Treasure Hunter adjustments, and a smattering of economic disruptions: - **Short-Term (End of 2024)**: Market inflation post-*GIM Bank Dupe* (Nov 2024) is likely to temporarily pump mid-tier collectibles like this. Players flush with cash may opt for visible vanity. Expect an upward spike to 2M-2.3M GP in late 2024. - **Medium-Term (Early 2025)**: The *RuneScape Combat Update* (March 2024) introduces reusable combat expenditures, diverting gameplay GP away from cosmetics towards new gear, boss keys, etc. The *Carrying Steins Token* could dip to ~1.1M or lower by Q2 2025 as speculative sellers exit. - **Long-Term Prospects**: As RuneScape continues to shift Treasure Hunter re-enabling dates for older cosmetics, the token risks major devaluation should Jagex enable easier means to reacquire it. If re-released into broader supply, it could crash below 500K. However, if left alone or heralded as “legacy,” a gradual rise back towards 2M is feasible by 2026-2027. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** For experienced merchants: - **Buy Window**: Look during predictable content diversions (e.g., combat-focused updates) when non-functional cosmetics are undersold. The typical "low" for this token is around 800K-1M GP. - **Sell Range**: During event-driven demand spikes, like new player surges or when updates encourage vanity displays, this can resell at 1.6-1.9M, reaching margins of **600K-900K per flip**. Larger-scale investors can bulk-flip for faster ROI. However, volatility in cosmetic markets means *residual holding losses* matter. Avoid sitting on tens of thousands of GP in perishable collectibles like this during active re-releases or GP-reducing events. --- ### **Related Items to Invest In** Items that follow parallel demand spikes and cycles include: 1. **Resting Animation Tokens (General)**: Similar to Steins, these appeal to roleplayers and casuals. Their supply is even more restricted since only certain events re-enable them. - *E.g., Ale Carrier Resting Token* remains stable and has also seen speculative pumps. 2. **Treasure Hunter Specific Animation Compatibility**: Consider other unlock tokens like *Demonic Skull Resting* (high visibility). 3. **Niche Vanity Overrides**: - *Portable Throne Token*: Rare but shows similar patterns of price suppression during competitive gameplay expansions and speculative rebounds during updates like anniversary events. --- ### **Seasonal Market Behaviors** **Positive Seasons for Token Appreciation**: - *Holiday Events*: Christmas and Easter often spark casual engagement, leading to higher demand for vanity items. Shoulder these tokens for upturns during December or April. - *PvM Lull Periods*: When PvM-centric updates slow (e.g., after March 2024's combat implementation) casual-focused items like this gain traction. **Negative Seasons for Breaker Events**: - *Treasure Hunter Reworks*: Economic collapses follow as re-releases flood oversaturation — avoid speculative hoarding if the item becomes an active loss sink. - *Gold Dupes and Exploits*: Such crashes create an initial inflationary pump but lead to lasting market stability issues. Older items like this historically perform worse under these conditions than newer, flashier vanity items. --- ### **Concluding Insight** The *Carrying Steins Resting Token* is a classic example of RuneScape’s shifting economic meta: niche appeal, price spurts driven by artificial supply/demand changes, and speculative investments yielding notable yet erratic flips. Its upcoming years will hinge strongly on Treasure Hunter re-release policies or preservation as a semi-exclusive collectible.