### Overview of the Inverted Cooking Skillcape (120) The Inverted Cooking Skillcape (120) is a rare cosmetic reward exclusive to RuneScape 3, acquired during limited-time promotions tied to Fresh Start Worlds (FSW), a temporary game mode introduced on September 22, 2022. The inverted variant is a recolored version of the traditional Cooking Skillcape but with a unique design that reflects a prestige aesthetic, symbolizing mastery beyond level 99 (or level 120). Its exclusivity comes from FSW’s time-limited nature and the immense effort required to obtain it during the event window. **Release Date**: Introduced with the Fresh Start Worlds event on **September 22, 2022**, though the price charts suggest its movement began in December 2022 when it was tradable. **Rarity**: Extremely rare. Only a limited subset of players participated in FSW, focusing specifically on higher-level inverted skillcapes like Cooking (120). This rarity feeds the item’s appeal for collectors and merchers. Since obtaining the 120 Cooking Cape in FSW required intense grinding under highly competitive conditions, the supply is very limited compared to traditional capes or other cosmetics. --- ### Price Analysis and Predictions #### Historical Trends - **Early Peaks**: On December 1, 2022, the Inverted Cooking Skillcape (120) sold for **2.75B**, reflecting its scarcity and newness to the market. Early adopters and collectors fueled this high price. - **Price Dips and Volatility**: By January 2023, its price experienced significant fluctuations: - Dropped to **1.0B-900M** on January 6, 2023. - Rebounded to **1.8B-2.0B** a week later (mid-January 2023), as buyers regained interest after its initial downward correction. These fluctuations likely stemmed from surges of speculative selling and economic instability caused by infusions of GP via dupes (e.g., the January 2021 rollback dupe and the 700B/hour Scrimshaw dupe from January 2023). #### Macro-Economic Events and Influencing Factors 1. **Dupes and GP Inflation**: Major gold influx events, such as the rollback dupe (2021), the Scrimshaw exploit (2023), and Treasure Hunter gold injections (April 2024), reduce the relative value of gold. Cosmetics like inverted skillcapes naturally rise in GP price during such periods due to their fixed rarity but dynamic demand. 2. **Jagex Policies/Updates**: Updates such as "Fresh Start Worlds" (2022) created artificial scarcity for inverted skillcapes, but the market rebalanced once the event ended. However, future re-releases or similar events could undermine demand if Jagex devalues exclusivity. 3. **Player Hacking and Losses**: Player hacks and item lures (e.g., Jan & Aug 2023 incidents) temporarily reshuffle wealth distribution, impacting high-value items as they get dumped or hoarded depending on the hacker’s method of monetization. This indirectly affects the inverted cape market. 4. **Economic Instability (Hero Pass Backlash)**: Changes that upset the core RuneScape economy, such as September 2023's Hero Pass backlash, typically suppress high-end trading volumes, especially rare cosmetics, as collectors pause investments due to economic uncertainty. #### Price Prediction (Late 2024 - Early 2025) - **2-3 Month Outlook**: The Inverted Cooking Skillcape (120) price will likely trend upwards, stabilizing between **2.4B-2.7B**, driven by ongoing GP inflation from updates (e.g., Bonds price hike on June 25, 2024) and its consistent desirability as a high-tier collectible among wealthier players. - **6-Month+ Prediction**: If no substantial Dupes or re-releases of inverted cosmetics occur, this item might breach the **3.0B+ mark** by mid-2025 due to dwindling market supply. However, any event reintroducing FSW rewards (even indirectly) would disrupt this growth, potentially causing prices to drop back to the 1.5B-1.8B range due to reduced exclusivity. --- ### Flipping Insights for Merchants 1. **Typical Flipping Margins**: Inverted Cooking (120) generally has **100M-300M margins** on rapid trades depending on its price and activity. Markets like these are relatively illiquid, allowing you to buy low during off-peak activity and resell high when demand spikes, typically after updates that inject wealth into the game. 2. **When to Buy**: - **Post-Dupe or GP Inflation Updates**: Market flooding or gold influx causes sellers to liquidate rare items like this cape to secure liquid cash. Target price: **1.8B-2.0B**. - **During Jagex Summertime Disruptions**: Price dips are common during mid-summer activity (~July-August), as updates temporarily shift attention toward new goals (e.g., Necromancy in August 2023 created liquidations). 3. **When to Sell**: - **Right After Wealth-Generating Updates**: Players flush with GP (e.g., April 2024 Treasure Hunter rewards or post-max cash exploit in May 2024) typically jump into collectible markets like cosmetics. - **Holiday Markets**: Player spending spikes near events like Christmas, when rare items are often purchased as "status symbols." --- ### Alternative Investments #### Comparable Items to Flip or Collect 1. **Inverted Skillcape (Mastery/120) Variants**: - Other skill-specific inverted capes from FSW, such as Woodcutting or Fishing, may offer similar trading potential, albeit with slightly different demand profiles. Simpler capes (e.g., 99 cape variants) are cheaper but ideal for medium-budget merchants seeking margins. 2. **Partyhat Market**: - Black Partyhat (released December 2023) represents a newer entry in the “status cosmetic” meta. Prices are volatile but tend to trend upward long-term due to player desire and relatively limited availability. 3. **Golden Partyhat**: - Previous event-exclusive "rare" items like the Golden Partyhat show consistent price appreciation due to steady demand and nostalgic value. --- ### Seasonal Price Outcomes #### Positive Seasonal Trends: - **December-January (Holiday Period)**: The combination of holiday gifting culture, heightened activity, and collectible demand often results in price spikes for rare items. - **Post-Wealth Updates**: Large injections of GP into the game lead to predictable increases in cosmetic prices. #### Negative Seasonal Trends: - **Early-Mid Summer (June-August)**: New major content releases typically lead to temporary liquidation of high-value items, causing price dips. Merchanting opportunities are abundant but require patience. - **Economic Shocks**: Any event undermining player confidence in the economy (e.g., September 2023 Hero Pass outrage) suppresses the entire rare item market due to widespread GP hoarding. --- ### Final Summary The Inverted Cooking Skillcape (120) is a top-tier RuneScape 3 collectible with an upward long-term trajectory driven by its exclusivity, aesthetic appeal, and inflationary economy. While subject to the typical RuneScape economic shocks (e.g., dupes, GP inflation, event re-introductions), it remains a cornerstone "mercher’s item." Ideal flipping occurs during post-update market swings, while medium-to-long-term holding will likely yield additional growth barring re-release. Diversify your market activity with alternative skillcapes and partyhats, especially following periods of instability or gold injections.