### **Inverted Invention Skillcape (120) Analysis** #### **Summary** The Inverted Invention Skillcape (120) is a highly sought-after cosmetic item introduced during the *Fresh Start Worlds* event (September 26, 2022 – January 9, 2023). It represents a prestige reward for having achieved 120 Invention using the inverted skillcape token—a time-limited token obtainable only during Fresh Start Worlds by meeting the aforementioned skill milestone. Given its exclusivity to Fresh Start Worlds and its visual aesthetic appeal among high-level players, the item holds high prestige as a discontinued cosmetic. The scarcity of players reaching 120 Invention within the limited timeframe, combined with the inability to reobtain the cape post-event, makes it exceptionally rare. #### **Release Date & Rarity** - **Introduced:** September 26, 2022 - **Rarity Rating:** Extremely rare due to limited-time availability and skill difficulty. - **Demand:** High among both collectors and cosmetic enthusiasts with a focus on discontinued items. #### **Market Behavior and Historical Price Trends** Looking at listed price data: 1. Upon Fresh Start Worlds ending (January 2023), the cape's price stabilized between **400M–700M**, reflecting the initial liquidations by players who earned it during Fresh Start Worlds but lacked long-term understanding of its rarity. 2. By late January 2023, the market saw rapid *fluctuations*—e.g., **450M → 900M → 1B**—likely influenced by general dupe panic (January 29, 2023, Scrimshaw dupe) creating erratic pricing. These fluctuations reflect temporary overvaluation due to gold injections and speculative demand. 3. Recent pricing volatility also correlates with general uncertainty caused by RuneScape GP inflation events, such as the Max Cash update (May 2024), further affecting the cosmetic item market across the board. The cape reached its highest spike of **2B GP (Nov 2022)** during the rarest early trading period. Since then, it has behaved like a discontinued item: gradually appreciating when held long-term but facing anomalies caused by broader economic events. --- ### **Price Prediction: Late 2024 into Mid-2025** Historically, discontinued items like this cape gain steady value outside of game-breaking economic disruptions. However, high-end cosmetics are susceptible to inflation-driven price increases when GP enters the economy in large volumes. With Jagex’s recent focus on monetization (bond price hikes, Treasure Hunter), gold sinks such as these capes will receive increased premium demand. Here's a projection: - **Short Term (3–6 months):** Prices will hover between **1.2B–1.5B GP**, driven by: - Speculative buyers anticipating rising discontinued-item prices. - New player interest post major updates or sales (e.g., following the “Sanctum of Rebirth” from July 2024). - **Long Term (6–12 months):** Prices could breach **1.6B–2.0B GP**, assuming no significant dupe events. This increase aligns with: - Increased collector appeal as the remaining invert tokens/capes exit the market. - Rising GP influx into RuneScape via monetization changes (*e.g., TH GP injection*). #### Market Risks: - Major GP dupes in early 2024 already injected trillions into the economy, but a second phase (e.g., GIM bank exploits) could spike prices rapidly. - A significant decrease in playerbase size from controversial mechanics (Hero Pass backlash, updates affecting existing content) could reduce item demand. --- ### **Flipping Margins** - **Historical Margins:** During the fluctuating months around launch, flipping margins were between **10%–50%**, with profitable volatility surrounding the 400M–700M GP range. - **Current Margins:** A tighter market now yields **5%–20%** flipping margins, depending on timing. Profit is best achieved when markets are volatile post-patch or during content release cycles (e.g., Mining update in August 2024). - **Tip:** Buying during *gold sink announcements* (like max cash updates or TH events) and reselling after GP influx events leads to greater margins as collectors anticipate future scarcity. --- ### **Other Similar Investments** To diversify your holdings while complementing Inverted Invention's profile: 1. **Inverted 120 Skillcapes in Other Skills**: Like Archaeology or Necromancy. These capes experience similar appreciation but are generally less expensive yet still exclusive. 2. **Discontinued Holiday Cosmetics**: Items like Black Santa Hat or Ice Dye offer steady appreciation parallels but are less susceptible to skill-restricted demand. 3. **Hero Pass Exclusive Rewards (2024 Editions)**: With ongoing backlash around Hero Pass rewards, early cosmetic items (daily reset exclusives or top-tier prices) are becoming coveted due to backlash-driven removals. --- ### **Seasonal Market Dynamics** - **Positive Price Phases:** - **Winter months (Dec–Feb):** RuneScape typically sees higher player populations and GP influx around holiday events, causing an indirect rise in cosmetic demand. - **Post-Update Quarter:** Game-changing PvM content (like Sanctum of Rebirth or combat meta updates) usually draws in wealthier players seeking high-end cosmetics. - **Negative Price Phases:** - **Immediately Post-Dupe Events:** High GP influx leads to short-term inflation, causing some collectors to hoard rather than flip, stalling price appreciation. - **Mid-Year (June–August):** Historically lower player participation leads to slower market cycles unless new PvM content drops. --- ### **Conclusion** The **Inverted Invention Skillcape (120)** is an elite speculative investment for long-term collectors due to discontinued rarity and cosmetic appeal. Despite mild volatility caused by macroeconomic GP changes and player-driven markets, the cape will appreciate consistently over time as RuneScape's economic inflation trends continue. Strategic flipping or holding will yield very competitive returns. Diversifying with other inverted skillcapes during price lulls or leveraging seasonal shifts will further maximize profits.