### Summary of the Frosty Shoulder Cape - **Release Date:** Released during the 2022 Christmas event as a Treasure Hunter cosmetic reward. This item tapped into seasonal demand as a rare, limited-edition winter-themed item. - **Rarity:** Classified as a holiday-specific rare item that became discontinued after its event, making it analogous to items like the Ice Amulet or Festive Wreath. Over time, it has developed collector appeal due to the exclusivity and nostalgia tied to seasonal festivities. - **Price Performance Overview:** Frosty Shoulder Cape experienced enormous volatility, peaking with unusually high demand soon after release due to the holiday hype and rarity, followed by eventual price corrections. It has since followed market fluctuations tied to broader RuneScape economic events. --- ### Historical Insights and Rarity Trends 1. **Initial Hype (December 2022):** Prices spiked to **99M GP (Dec 5, 2022)**, fueled by highly speculative trading and scarcity during its Treasure Hunter availability. Collector interest dominated this phase, mimicking the release hype of other Treasure Hunter rares. 2. **Post-event Correction:** Following the holiday season, prices plummeted to sub-**10M GP by early 2023**, reflecting a waning novelty and resale flood by speculators trying to recoup their investments. 3. **Economic Influences:** The **Scrimshaw dupe in January 2023** temporarily elevated demand for items perceived as "safe GP sinks," partially cushioning its fall. However, subsequent hacks, exploits, and GP injections during 2023 diluted the item’s rarity appeal. 4. **Recent Spikes (April 2024):** The price shot up to **~10M GP**, coinciding with the **Treasure Hunter GP injection event (April 2024)**. This aligns with historical behavior, as such events re-ignite demand for mid-range rares as "non-GP storage assets." Additionally, its nostalgic appeal parallels the market rebound of other winter event items like the Candy Cane or Christmas Scythe. --- ### Price Prediction for Frosty Shoulder Cape (Mid-2024 to Q1 2025) Based on historical data: - **Short-term (3 months):** Expect stabilization around **1.5M-2M GP** as the item continues to suffer from the recent post-max-cash trading exploit (May 2024), which flooded the market with GP and deflated mid-tier discontinued item values. - **Mid-term (6-9 months):** By the 2024 holiday season, Frosty Shoulder Cape could rebound to **5M-6M GP**. Discontinued holiday items often see renewed interest during their anniversary periods (December). Trading opportunities could improve as speculators begin acquiring such items in anticipation of holiday-driven demand spikes. ### Historical Dips and Spikes Key factors that influenced significant price movements: 1. **December 2022 Spike:** Release rarity and initial collector churn drove the item to absurdly high speculative prices. 2. **Prolonged Correction:** The influx of GP, Treasure Hunter item oversaturation, and event-item fatigue caused gradual collapses. 3. **April 2024 Surge:** GP injection via Treasure Hunter briefly spiked its value as players used it as a speculative asset akin to other rare holiday cosmetics. --- ### Flipping Margins and Strategy - **Short-term Flipping Margins:** Due to low volatility post-April, flipping margins hover at **3-5%** for small-scale trades between a **1.4M buy price** and **1.5M sell price**. However, lower player demand means slower turnover. - **Key Flipping Window:** During holiday seasons (November-December), flipping margins could widen to **20-25%** amidst increased collector demand. Strategically acquire Frosty Shoulder Capes in mid-November and list through late December. --- ### Similar Items to Diversify To maximize trade value or collector appeal, pair Frosty Shoulder Capes with other holiday-themed or discontinued items with fluctuating patterns: 1. **Christmas Tree Hat (2018):** Holiday-exclusive with similar mid-tier price behavior. 2. **Candy Cane (2014):** Older holiday item, highly collectible during Christmas. 3. **Ice Amulet (2012):** Frosty-themed motif with a stable collector base. 4. **Festive Reaper Wings (2023):** Similar limited-edition Treasure Hunter release that rises every holiday season. --- ### Seasonal Trends for Investment 1. **Positive Outcomes:** - **Late November to January:** Holiday hype elevates demand for seasonal items, particularly cosmetics and discontinued wears. Expect modest gains by showcasing Frosty Shoulder Capes in festive-themed fashion scape competitions. - **Early July:** Summer scarcity reduces availability while long-term collectors opt to diversify investments before major updates. 2. **Negative Outcomes:** - **March to May (Post-Economy Shocks):** Recent RuneScape-wide GP exploits have destabilized the high-end and mid-tier market for most collectibles. - **September:** Historical Treasure Hunter events during this period often oversaturate the market with cosmetic rewards, reducing demand for prior rares like the Frosty Shoulder Cape. --- ### Conclusion Frosty Shoulder Cape remains a textbook example of a mid-tier discontinued item heavily tied to seasonal hype and economic volatility. While its short-term market remains tepid, investors can expect notable improvement during festive periods or when Jagex recalibrates the GP economy. Leveraging this item alongside similar holiday rares can yield reliable profits, provided patience and event timing are observed.