### Cloak of Seasons: Overview
**Summary**: The Cloak of Seasons is a Treasure Hunter-exclusive rare item introduced on **April 2, 2015**, as part of the "Heart of Spring" promotional event. Designed to represent all four seasons, its intricate appearance and aesthetic value make it sought after by collectors, despite its lack of tangible in-game utility. The cloak cycles through its visual effects, showcasing spring blossoms, summer leaves, autumn foliage, and winter frost patterns, which is its most unique feature.
**Release Date**: April 2, 2015
**Rarity**: With limited release and no regular reintroduction, the Cloak of Seasons is classified as a discontinued rare. Since its Treasure Hunter debut, it has only been seen in extremely select re-release promotions (e.g., the 2016 "Return of the Discontinued" event). Its scarcity, combined with cosmetic appeal, makes it one of the high-profile Treasure Hunter rares.
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### Price Analysis and Historical Trends
Using the dataset you provided, the Cloak of Seasons has gone through significant volatility since 2021, experiencing price surges, crashes, and stagnation. Let’s analyze the broader price history and its correlation to key in-game events:
#### **Key Observations on Price History**:
1. **Initial High Valuation** (January 2021): Prices exceeded 800M GP, bolstered by the rollback dupe (01/11/2021) that introduced significant inflation into the economy. High surplus of GP drove rare items to hyperinflated prices.
2. **Mid-2021 Decline**: After stabilizing post-rollback and more dupes, the Cloak began to lose value, hitting ~365M GP by July 2021. Demand weakened as new boss drops (like Croesus in late 2021) shifted player focus to combat-oriented items.
3. **Fresh Start Worlds & Halloween 2022 Influence**: Prices spiked to ~387M GP following Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022), as new influxes of wealth and rare chasing fueled demand.
4. **Crashes Following Major Events**:
- Early 2023 saw a dramatic price drop in conjunction with multiple economic shocks, including mass account hacks and the Scrimshaw dupe (01/2023). The item’s price nosedived due to the overall loss of player trust.
- Despite brief resilience in mid-2023, Hero Pass backlash (09/2023) and subsequent updates pushed prices down to ~54M GP by early September.
5. **Recent Trends** (2024): Prices slightly rallied toward ~83M GP by October 2024, possibly due to newer GP influx mechanisms (e.g., Treasure Hunter GP boosts and Max Cash exploitation). However, the value remains depreciated compared to its historical peaks.
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### Prediction for the Next Few Months
#### **Bullish Indicators**:
1. **Holiday Seasons (December-February)**: Rare cosmetics typically attract renewed interest during Christmas and New Year promotions, as players anticipate discontinued content tie-ins or themed sales.
2. **Potential for Treasure Hunter Rarity Consolidation**: If Jagex focuses on reined-in MTX mechanics post-community backlash, the rarity of older Treasure Hunter rares may become more desirable again.
#### **Bearish Indicators**:
1. **GP Inflation and Dupes**: Continued exploits (e.g., GIM bank bug, Easter Pet/Gummy dupe) devalue GP, leading to demand prioritization for top-tier rares like partyhats or Black Santa over mid-tier rares like the Cloak.
2. **Player Attrition Post-Hero Pass**: A dwindling player base reduces the collectible market, making flips slower and riskier.
**Prediction**: Expect mild appreciation toward **100-110M GP** by early 2025, driven by holiday demand and some market recovery. However, without disruptive re-releases or significant positive shifts, the Cloak will likely remain stagnant in the medium term compared to more hyped discontinued rares.
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### Flipping Margins
The Cloak of Seasons is an attractive flipping item for short-term traders due to its relatively low liquidity but occasional high swings driven by collector markets.
#### Typical Margins:
- **Low Activity Periods**: 2-5M GP margins during stagnant months (e.g., February-April historically).
- **High Activity Periods**: 5-15M GP margins around event surges (e.g., Fresh Start Worlds or Treasure Hunter bombshell updates).
- **Flipping Strategy**: Focus on acquiring during low-demand periods for ~80M GP and reselling closer to 100M GP during spikes (e.g., Christmas trading or speculative re-release hype).
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### Similar Items for Portfolio Diversification
#### Complementary Investments:
1. **Crown of Seasons**: Matches aesthetic appeal with the Cloak and targets similar collectors. Historically more stable but with fewer spikes.
2. **Black Santa Hat**: While pricier, it’s one of the most premium discontinued cosmetics. Serves as a solid hedge against market downturns.
3. **Ice-Dyed Cape**: A favorite among high-end fashion scapers; its combat relevance makes it resilient against economic crashes.
4. **Aurora Dye**: A lower-cost cosmetic option from Treasure Hunter but trades with shorter flipping cycles.
#### Items to Avoid
Avoid overexposing yourself to mid-tier rares. Items like shadow dyes or discontinued cosmetics that aren’t “true rares” are prone to rapid devaluation with constant GP influx or Treasure Hunter events.
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### Seasonal Market Influences
#### **Positive Seasons** (Market Boosts):
- **November-January**: Players return during Christmas, boosting GP circulation and demand for rares.
- **July-September**: Summer trends see greater player activity, often seeing speculative demand peaks.
#### **Negative Seasons** (Market Decay):
- **March-April**: Post-holiday lulls and economic resets (e.g., Treasure Hunter GP floods).
- **October**: Market corrections after high speculative activity leading into back-to-school periods.
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### Closing Insights
The Cloak of Seasons, while past its prime as a high-tier rare, remains attractive for cosmetic investors seeking low-to-mid capital entries. By understanding RuneScape’s complex seasonal, economic, and patch-driven cycles, it can still provide a steady flipping option if timed correctly. Diversify with complementary rare items to hedge against future updates, and prioritize trading activity during periods of holiday-driven spikes or economic shocks.
Ely Intelligence Analysis