### Grace of the Elves Analysis #### **Summary** The Grace of the Elves is a high-tier utility necklace introduced on **November 26, 2018**, with the inclusion of the **Player-Owned Farm (POF): Ranch Out of Time** update. The amulet provides the revolutionary ability to gain **passive Seren Spirit appearances** while utilizing skilling nodes, offering players access to free items and clue scroll drops. Additionally, it can store up to 500 Sign of the Porters, greatly aiding resource gathering by automatically banking items. The strong synergy with various skilling activities and its application across nearly all training surfaces has made it one of RuneScape 3's most sought-after items. Its resale value and usability are tied to skilling methods benefiting from Seren Spirits or Porter benefits, frequently gaining more demand during skilling-centric updates or Treasure Hunter promotions. #### **Rarity** While not exceedingly rare, it is relatively expensive because it requires components such as **alchemical onyx**, which is crafted from extremely rare materials like **onyx dust**. Supply is consistent through high-end PvM drops; however, demand spikes during skilling competitions or updates have kept its price volatile. --- ### **Historical Trends and Price Influences** The **Grace of the Elves** has shown fluctuating demand since its release, with notable price spikes and dips tied to RuneScape's in-game economy, major gameplay updates, and external variables: 1. **Early Declines in 2022:** Removal of the Duel Arena in **January 2022** and the **Fresh Start Worlds** introduction in **September 2022** impacted the gold supply, deflating prices slightly. The item hovered around stable prices in this era. 2. **Market Crashes in 2023:** Major exploits such as the **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)** and **mass player hacks (February 2023)** caused GP injection and liquidity loss in the market. Additionally, the **Hero Pass (September 2023)** controversies caused gameplay dissatisfaction, deflating player volumes and bringing lower volatility. 3. **Price Spikes during **Necromancy (August 2023):** The **Necromancy Max Level Expansion (August 7, 2023)** spiked demand. Players reused Grace of the Elves for new skilling alts, which significantly outweighed supply, pushing the price close to **80M GP** in short bursts. 4. **2024 Market Manipulations and Exploits Impact:** The **Max Cash update exploit (May 2024)** caused the market to flood with trillions, leading to hyperinflation. Items like Grace of the Elves spiked to **81M+ GP in April**, though dropped sharply afterward due to massive GP influx corrections. ### **Recent Price Data Analysis** - The current price trajectory shows a continued **downtrend (December 2024: ~69M GP)** following updates that failed to introduce high skilling demand. - The **Easter Pets/Gummy dupes (April 2024)** and **Treasure Hunter GP injection (April 2024)** negatively impacted stability, flooding disposable gold into the economy. This decline aligns with post-rework cooldowns (e.g., **Sanctum of Rebirth and Smithing Rework**), where skilling intensity diminishes, reducing short-term demand. --- ### **Price Prediction** Based on these patterns and anticipated trends: - **Short-Term (3 Months: Q1 2025)**: Expect prices to stabilize in the **65-72M GP range** as holiday engagement drops. Minor updates or promotions **(Treasure Hunter)** may push spikes toward **75M GP**, but the lack of active skilling reworks will likely suppress significant growth. - **Mid-Term (6 Months)**: Anticipate possible growth back to **70-78M GP** if RuneScape introduces skilling competitions or productivity-driven updates. Jagex's typical release schedule for expansions will foster volatility by **Summer 2025**. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Grace of the Elves flipping remains lucrative, especially given its consistent volume in the high-end skilling and PvMer player base. Margins typically range from **1.0-1.5M GP per transaction**, though periods of uncertainty (post-Treasure Hunter events) offer sharper 2.0M GP margins due to panic selling or rapid buy-ups. #### **Tips for Profitable Flipping** 1. **Treasure Hunter Events**: Buy during GP injection updates when players offload misc assets, then resell during cooldown periods as skilling activity rebounds. 2. **Weekend/Skilling Seminars**: Buy toward weekends and sell mid-week to leverage player influx seasonal behavior. 3. **Necromancy Synergy**: With Necromancy reaching a steady pace post-2025, capitalize when Seren Spirit-heavy spots become part of efficient XP strategies. --- ### **Complementary Items to Invest In** For diversification, consider the following: - **Portable Skilling Outfits**: Skilling adjacents (e.g., **Wise Perk gear**) spike during major holiday events. - **Luck of the Dwarves**: Pairs well due to shared Seren Spirit utility and moderate volatility. - **Ring of Fortune (Alchemical)**: A cheaper surrogate but lower-margin flips. #### **Seasonal Impacts to Watch** 1. **Positive Factors** (Growth): - **New Skilling Updates/Reworks** (e.g., **Mining Rework effect in August 2024**) - **Treasure Hunter GP Events** (April 2024 injection saw peaks across utility gear). 2. **Negative Factors** (Decline): - **Market Exploits or Crashes**: Expect significant downturns following **gold/item dupes** or PvP exploits. - **Q1-Post Holiday Slumps**: Between **January–March**, the lower player engagement typically reduces everyday demand for mid-high tier items like Grace of the Elves. By observing game update calendars, aligning buys during calmer markets, and flipping post-engagement spikes, you’ll secure consistent profits!