### Summary, Release, and Rarity of *Chaotic Berserk Cosmetic Ability Scroll*
The *Chaotic Berserk Cosmetic Ability Scroll* is a purely cosmetic item in RuneScape 3 that enhances a player’s Berserk ultimate by giving it a dynamic and visually impactful chaotic-themed animation. It was introduced as a rare reward from Treasure Hunter on **March 28, 2023**, during the Berserk cosmetic promotion. Its supply is limited, as it was event-locked, and it has not seen any official re-release, barring any future Treasure Hunter events or promotions.
The scroll's rarity stems not only from its limited-time availability but also from its narrow player base—appealing mainly to mid-range and high-tier PvMers who use Berserk often, making it a niche yet coveted item.
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### Historical Price Trends & Insights
The price data reveals significant volatility since its release:
- **March-April 2023:** Initial release priced the scroll at a staggering **350M-370M GP**, fueled by hype and limited availability.
- The **decline toward 250M-152M GP** in subsequent months aligns with the subsiding excitement post-promotion.
- **April 29, 2023 -> 251M GP:** Price stabilization likely due to the lack of re-releases but reduced demand.
- **June-November 2023:** A sharp decline occurs (i.e., **152M -> 27M GP**) following economic destabilization caused by updates like the Hero Pass backlash (September 2023) and Red Portal bugs (November). Wealth hoarding shifted attention to high-value rares or liquid gold rather than niche cosmetics.
- **Late 2023-2024 Recovery:** By **December 2023**, prices recovered from **27M GP->125M GP**, after the release of high-GP generating content like the **Black Partyhat** (December 1). The scroll price rebounded to **156M GP by October 2024**, potentially fueled by limited alternative sources and renewed player interest in expensive cosmetics within post-Necromancy metas.
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### Price Analysis & Future Predictions
#### Key Trends:
1. **Event-Driven Volatility:** This scroll is highly sensitive to economic turbulence. Prices plummeted with updates like the **Scrimshaw dupe** (January 2023) and Red Portal bugs (late 2023/2024), yet rebounded with player confidence regeneration.
2. **Treasured Exclusivity:** Treasure Hunter re-releases could significantly impact its price. If made available again, expect a crash to **5-15M GP**, as supply oversaturates. Jagex has a history of such re-releases to drain wealth (e.g., rare tokens, ornaments).
3. **Necromancy Popularity:** As Necromancy stabilized in popularity post-August 2023, aesthetic customizations like this scroll benefit from synergy with high-tier PvM builds. This may partially explain the late-2024 recovery.
#### Prediction:
- **Low Estimate (March 2025):** **35M GP** if a re-release or equivalent cosmetic occurs.
- **High Estimate:** **190-220M GP**, sustained by interest in high-value legacy cosmetics, provided no flood of GP or supply shocks occur.
- **Mid-point Expectation:** **130-140M GP** in 6 months assuming no drastic destabilization (e.g., rare dupes) or major Treasure Hunter drains.
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### Flipping Margins
The Chaotic Berserk scroll has shown significant potential for flipping during its post-crash recovery phases:
1. **Low Recovery Phase (Q4 2023):** Buy-in during suppressed pricing (i.e., 27M GP) and resell in 1-2 months post-stabilization (e.g., at 125M GP) achieved margins exceeding **300-400% profit**.
2. **Stabilized Market (Q3-Q4 2024):** Margins narrow to **10-20M GP per flip** as price stabilizes between buy-in (~140M GP) and sell (~156M GP).
Players should focus on short-term instability periods and shift toward long-term holds when updates signal>
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### Comparative Buy Recommendations
#### Similar Items:
- *Chaotic Slam Scroll*: Its sister cosmetic scroll from the same Treasure Hunter promotion. Historically, competitive but less niche in design.
- *Zaros Godsword Cosmetic Token*: High-end PvM utility aesthetic token periodically spikes in demand when Zaros-focused combat remains meta.
- *Eldritch Crossbow Schematic*: A more PvM-focused rare token typically correlates with combat updates.
#### When to Buy These:
- **Treasure Hunter Wealth Dumps:** Post GP-infusion events (e.g., Treasure Hunter GP injections like April 2024).
- **Off-Meta PvM Periods:** Target items with aesthetic PvM appeal, as demand fluctuates cyclically based on popular combat styles, such as Necromancy.
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### Seasonal Factors
1. **Positive Seasonal Factors for Rising Prices (Buy-in Early):**
- Pre-January Patch Cycle: Late December sees players speculating on PvM buffs and gathering assets (e.g., Chaotic Scrolls).
- Necromancy Patch Buffs: Future combat buffs or graphical overhauls might boost interest in Berserk customization.
- Post-Treasure Hunter Wealth-Draining Events.
2. **Negative Factors for Price Suppression (Sell Quick):**
- February-April, often feature Treasure Hunter re-releases, driving prices of legacy cosmetics down.
- Major Duplication Exploits: Events such as GP influx devalue rarer and more niche items.
By monitoring these events, flipping Chaotic Berserk and similar items becomes highly profitable within RuneScape’s inherently volatile economy.
Ely Intelligence Analysis