### **Summary of the Chaotic Hurricane Cosmetic Ability Scroll** The **Chaotic Hurricane Cosmetic Ability Scroll** is a rare RuneScape 3 item that unlocks a cosmetic override for the Hurricane ability, imbuing it with a vibrant and chaotic appearance. First released as part of a Treasure Hunter promotion, its main appeal stems from its exclusivity and aesthetic enhancement for one of the most iconic melee abilities in the game. The scroll could initially be obtained during limited-time events, but subsequent re-releases on Treasure Hunter and its growing desirability in the cosmetics market have significantly influenced its price over time. Its rarity is considered **moderate-high** compared to other Treasure Hunter cosmetics, with fluctuating availability making it less common than commonplace promotions but not as scarce as items like discontinued rares or Black Party Hats. --- ### **Release Date** This specific scroll debuted in **early 2023**, coinciding with a renewed focus from Jagex on cosmetics through microtransactions and Treasure Hunter promotions. Its specific launch occurred amidst the unpredictability of Treasure Hunter mechanics, contributing to variations in how many scrolls entered circulation. --- ### **Rarity and Availability** The rarity of this cosmetic is primarily due to its limited acquisition window through Treasure Hunter. It has not reached discontinued status, as it has been re-released periodically, which temporarily suppresses its price. However, its appeal within the high-tier melee player and fashion-scape communities ensures it remains sought-after during its off-cycle periods. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis** The **price data log** reveals several distinct patterns: 1. **January to February 2023:** - The scroll debuted at a **massive 198M** during initial hype, driven by exclusivity and scarcity. However, its price sharply corrected to around **50-100M** due to availability from Treasure Hunter and increased player familiarity. - The chaos of exploits (e.g., Scrimshaw dupe and player hacks) during this time likely flooded the market with hyperinflated liquidity, supporting initial surges before corrections normalized prices. 2. **March-December 2023:** - A notable price surge in **March (100M)** suggests speculative buying amidst broader economic changes, such as item rebalancing or patch-related content. - The **December spike (82M)** aligns with the release of the Black Partyhat update and seasonal Treasure Hunter promotions, reducing supply due to player focus on rarer rewards. - Any smaller "competitor" cosmetic releases likely temporarily shifted attention away. 3. **2024:** - Major **price dip in March-April 2024** to **16-20M**, likely attributed to the combination of: - Treasure Hunter re-releases flooding the market. - Exploits such as the Max Cash dupe (May 2024), Easter reward duplications (April 2024), and booming GP inflation destabilizing the secondary market. - Current prices around **16.5M (August 2024)** indicate stabilization post-exploit corrections. --- ### **Price Prediction** **Short-term (Next 6 Months, 2024):** - **Base projection:** A modest price recovery towards **25-35M** as the post-Treasure Hunter supply diminishes. Cosmetic-focused items inherently recover well in the absence of direct competition. - **Catalyst potential:** Updates like Sanctum of Rebirth (combat-focused) could drive melee-enthusiast purchases. - Seasonal events, such as Halloween/Christmas, may also create upward volatility as GP inflows increase, driving demand for cosmetics. **Long-term (Late 2025):** - A return to **60-100M is plausible**, assuming no further re-releases. Historical trends suggest that Jagex rarely re-reissues cosmetics ad infinitum; past cosmetics such as the Spirit Dragon pet exhibit this behavior. Additionally, its appeal aligns with melee meta relevance. --- ### **Flipping Margins** - The scroll’s consistency in **moderate demand cycles** makes it suitable for flipping, especially during periods of short-term market frenzy. - Typical margins range between **1-5M GP** on average, with spikes exceeding **10M** during Jagex patch updates or Treasure Hunter removal phases. - Optimal flipping periods: Post-Treasure Hunter re-releases, when active supply orphans undervalued stocks. --- ### **Similar Items to Watch and Buy** For similar investment opportunities: 1. **Cosmetic Ability Scrolls:** - *Greater Ricochet* or *Sunshine-themed overrides* often behave similarly in terms of pricing mechanics, hinging on their promotional activity. 2. **Treasure Hunter Exclusives:** - Labels like *Aura Cosmetics Packs* and *Rare Animations* for abilities (e.g., Tsunami, Death’s Swiftness). 3. **Seasonal Crossovers:** - Look for **Necromancy-themed rewards** and items tied to **bands of rare cosmetics** introduced post-Necomancy launch; melee-themed alternatives (e.g., Abyssal Cosmetics) naturally compete. --- ### **Seasonal Dynamics** 1. **Positive Price Seasons:** - **Winter (December-January):** Playerbase peaks lead to increased interest post-Christmas (influx of new players and returning veterans). - **Late Spring (May-June):** Pre-summer updates and increased demand for GP injection rewards spur buying sprees. 2. **Negative Price Seasons:** - **March-April:** Common Treasure Hunter re-release period dampens demand and overcorrects prices temporarily. - **Early Autumn (August-September):** Historically coincides with meta-redefining updates (e.g., Necromancy) where attention shifts to combat-affecting rewards over cosmetics. --- ### **Strategic Advice** - Stockpile *Chaotic Hurricane* once it stabilizes at around **20M**, anticipating long-term returns during content lulls. - Diversify with **complementary melee/ability cosmetics**, taking advantage of similar timing trends to maximize flipping margins. - Watch **Jagex update patterns**—especially new combat skills or Treasure Hunter promotional windows—as these influence scrolls significantly more than other items.