### **Azure Sunshine Cosmetic Ability Scroll Overview**
The Azure Sunshine cosmetic ability scroll is a high-demand, tradeable cosmetic override for the *Sunshine* ability. Released during a promotional Treasure Hunter event, it remains a sought-after item due to its scarcity and aesthetic appeal, especially among players who enjoy customizing their combat visuals. The release date aligns with a Treasure Hunter cycle in early 2023, likely February 2023, during the golden period of aesthetically-focused rewards just before key GP disruptions from the January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe.
Its rarity derives from the limited availability during that Treasure Hunter event, compounded by the high GP sink value attached to cosmetics in the game. It has become a speculative item in the economy due to demand from both collectors and aesthetic-focused players. Its trade history reflects erratic price movements affected by macroeconomic disruptions in RuneScape, such as dupes, GP injections, and competitive comparable item releases.
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### **Item Price History and Economic Trends**
#### **Key Price Movements**
The price peaked at **770M GP** in late January 2023 shortly after its initial release, reflecting high demand from collectors and a low supply. It saw sharp declines following the **700B+/hour Scrimshaw dupe (01/29/2023)** and subsequent player hacks (02/01/2023), settling between **400M–600M GP** in February and early March. A slow and cumulative decline set in by mid-2023, with prices dipping to **136M GP by March 2024** and stabilizing around **150M GP by August 2024.** Key price data points are as follows:
- **2023-01-28:** 770M GP at peak hype after release.
- **2023-02-06:** Price crashes to 700M GP post-Scrimshaw dupe.
- **2023-03-26:** Sudden dip to 510M GP due to growing supply in circulation and market uncertainty.
- **2023-05-02:** Major plummet to 374M GP following Treasure Hunter overhauls and re-releases influencing TH cosmetic desirability.
- **2024-03-04:** Bottoms at 136M GP due to the **RuneScape Combat Update**, which redirected spending priorities towards equipment over cosmetics.
#### **Insights from Historical Events**
1. **Duplication Exploits:** GP inflations (e.g., January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe and May 2024 Max Cash exploit) primarily impacted luxury markets, including cosmetics. While such disruptions typically spike nominal prices, chronic inflation led to a lack of player trust in high-value trades, driving core prices down.
2. **Treasure Hunter Saturation:** A gradual decline occurred as Jagex oversaturated Treasure Hunter with cosmetic alternatives (e.g., easter egg rewards in April 2024).
3. **Item Competition:** Players moved to newly-released cosmetics with more appealing prestige (e.g., **Black Partyhat, Necromancy glyphs**) leading to lower retention of Azure Sunshine scroll demand.
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### **Price Prediction**
Given current trends, the **Azure Sunshine Cosmetic Ability Scroll** is unlikely to see dramatic short-term recovery unless bolstered by rarity (e.g., Jagex officially confirms it will not re-release the scroll). Over the next few months, its price will likely fluctuate between **120M–180M GP**, assuming no market anomalies.
**Key Catalysts for Price Spikes or Dips:**
- **Positive Catalyst:** Jagex reemphasizing cosmetic scarcity or discontinuation—these announcements typically cause speculators to hoard.
- **Negative Catalyst:** Broad GP inflation or Treasure Hunter re-releases will deflate demand further.
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### **Flipping Margins Computation**
The Azure Sunshine scroll is most effectively flipped during stable economic periods or amidst short-term speculative interest. Historical data suggests its typical margins for medium-term flipping range from **10M–25M GP per transaction** based on its current price bracket **(150M average sell price)**. The item provides moderate liquidity, but flipping may require patience during price lulls.
**Optimal Flip Strategies:**
- **Low-end buy:** Place aggressive buy offers below 140M GP during downtime.
- **High-end sell:** Target 170M GP during cosmetic hype seasons like cosmetic rerelease events or limited Treasure Hunter holidays.
- **Trading blocks:** Flip in quantities of 1–3 items to mitigate risk of price dips during holding periods.
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### **Similar Items for Diversification**
1. **Diesel Deathswiftness Scroll:** A comparable alternative cosmetic ability scroll for *Deathswiftness*. Historically follows similar pricing and trend patterns, useful for diversifying risk.
2. **Necromancy Glyph Auras**: High demand due to recent **Necromancy skill (08/2023)**, high potential for appreciation if supply remains constrained.
3. **Black Partyhat (12/2023):** Recently introduced rare; its prestige ensures long-term inflating trends. Priced higher but offers speculative flipping profitability.
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### **Seasonal Trends and Market Advice**
#### **Positive Seasons for Prices:**
- **Winter (December–January):** Player activity peaks, and disposable income increases during holiday-based Treasure Hunter events.
- **Post-update cosmetics droughts:** Periods where Jagex avoids cosmetic releases historically lead to spikes in existing collectible demand.
#### **Negative Seasons for Prices:**
- **Spring (April–May):** Inventory dumps after Treasure Hunter seasonal items dilute cosmetic rarity.
- **Major updates (e.g., Combat Update in March 2024):** Competitive GP redirection to necessary upgrades diminishes cosmetic demand.
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### **Concluding Advice**
The Azure Sunshine scroll remains a niche speculative asset in the RuneScape economy. Given current market conditions, traders should watch for Treasure Hunter events or Jagex announcements for signals to enter or exit the market. Pairing investments with higher liquidity alternatives in the cosmetic category (e.g., Black Partyhat or newer Treasure Hunter glyphs) is ideal to reduce risk.
Ely Intelligence Analysis