### **Heart of the Warrior Analysis** **Summary and Rarity:** The Heart of the Warrior is part of the Heart relic series introduced with Archaeology, specifically providing a tier-3 relic power (Berserker’s Fury) that grants bonus damage proportional to the player's missing health. Released on **March 30, 2020**, with the Archaeology skill update, it is acquired from carefully excavating Warforge Dig Site materials or traded player-to-player. While the drop rate from excavation is exceedingly rare, its consistent supply hinges on high-level Archaeology players farming materials. Its primary utility is for combat-oriented setups, particularly in PvM scenarios. Market rarity is driven by fluctuating supply-demand dynamics based on interest in combat meta and profitability of farming Archaeology. Its rarity is medium-high, but improvements in Archaeology efficiency over time have standardized its availability compared to 2020. --- ### **Price Trends and Insights** Historical price analysis shows extreme volatility. Key fluctuations can be explained by examining the timeline: 1. **2023-09**: The post-Hero Pass release backlash and new content fatigue caused a massive speculative spike. Hearts initially surged, peaking at **59M GP**, reflecting panic buying and the broader economy's adjustment post-dupe recoveries earlier in the year. Declining usage of Hero Pass rewards in PvM content stalled demand. 2. **2024-01 to 2024-03**: Following overcommitted speculation in 2023, the item hit low dips ranging between **19-21M GP** by January 2024. A stabilized PvM meta focused on Necromancy reduced its immediate desirability. Notably, the **March 2024 combat update** reintroduced demand, temporarily spiking prices above **30M**. 3. **2024-05 to 2024-06**: The **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** flooded the economy with trillions. This led to unnatural inflation of numerous mid-tier PvM items, including Heart of the Warrior, which briefly hit **26M GP** but normalized to **18M GP** by late June. The downward trend reflected overcorrection by players liquidating inflated inventories. **Price Prediction Over the Next Few Months:** - **Short-term (1-3 months):** Expect stabilization in the **16-20M range** driven by **August 2024’s Mining and Smithing rework**, which will shift focus away from high-end combat relics (like Berserker’s Fury). Declining demand in PvM content until revised bosses are released will keep prices under pressure. - **Medium-term (3-9 months):** Anticipate gradual recovery toward **22-25M GP** with new combat content or power-creep updates. If delayed, the GIM bank dupe (November 2024) could further overwhelm the market, temporarily stalling recovery. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Heart of the Warrior is highly liquid in its price tier, meaning flipping opportunities are frequent: - **Typical margins:** Traders often see **4-6% margins** during stable periods and **10-15% during volatility** spikes (e.g., during major updates). For example, buying at **18M GP** during a market lull and selling at **20M GP** during minor speculation bursts is common. - **Short-term flipping advice:** Hold back during post-update price drops but buy aggressively during known PvM-related announcements or future boss rebalances. Avoid liquidating during post-exploit cleanup phases when panic-selling dominates. --- ### **Similar Items to Pair in Investments** Diversify your portfolio with other demand-driven combat Archaeology relics and items: 1. **Heart of the Seer** (tier-3 relic for accuracy boosts): Another combat relic, which follows parallel trends due to similar PvM applications. 2. **Scrimshaws (General combat-oriented ones)**: Their synergy with Berserker’s Fury makes them a complementary flipping or holding option. 3. **Elite Tectonic and Cryptbloom armor pieces**: High-end PvM gear typically fluctuates alongside combat-oriented relics due to shared demand. 4. **Archaeology consumables**: Examples include Dragon Matock and Timeworn Components, which see seasonal demand spikes prior to new skill integrations. --- ### **Seasonality and Economic Trends** - **Positive growth seasons:** - **Post-major skill updates:** Relics spike during combat skill expansions or rebalancing (e.g., Necromancy). Monitor for skill integrations that affect boss meta or combat rotations. - **High player engagement periods (holiday events):** Supply temporarily dips during high-retention months (e.g., December or July updates), creating upward pressure. - **Price dips and suppressions:** - **Post-duplication/exploit fallout:** Following events like the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**, rampant GP introduction dilutes relic value. Avoid holding during dupe cleanups. - **Economic downturns (e.g., Hero Pass backlash 2023):** Player disengagement or update fatigue cycles create sell-offs, tanking prices. --- ### **Conclusion and Strategy** Heart of the Warrior is a reliable mid-tier PvM flipping item, with historical price points displaying predictable correlation with combat meta and economic stability. Use its intimate ties to PvM cycles and Archaeology supply trends to time investments well. Leveraging short-term volatility during PvM updates and offset risks with similar Archaeology items can drive consistent profit. Expect a gradual return to **22-25M GP** over the next quarter unless unforeseen PvM or skill expansions disrupt demand cycles. Avoid large holdings during player uproar periods or after exploitive economic shocks.