### **Deep Analysis of the Dragon Mattock** #### **Summary** The **Dragon Mattock** is a high-tier mattock used in the Archaeology skill, offering faster excavation rates compared to its lower-tier counterparts. It boasts greater precision and focuses, providing practical benefits for leveling and rare artifact excavation. The mattock is often sought after as a stepping stone toward upgrading to the **Crystal**, **Imcando**, or **Tetra** variants. Introduced alongside the **Archaeology skill release on March 30, 2020**, the Dragon Mattock can be obtained as a rare drop from bosses such as **Raksha, the Shadow Colossus**, and **Archaeology-related creatures** like **Zygomites** within the Stormguard Citadel Dig Site. Its rarity combined with decent demand retains its value, though it is susceptible to price fluctuations based on economic factors, updates, and new content releases. #### **Overall Rarity** While not exceedingly rare, the Dragon Mattock is primarily bottlenecked by player availability and PvM drop RNG. This positions it as semi-consistent in supply, though its price dynamics are heavily tied to meta-economic trends and game upheavals (e.g., gold dupes and new gear releases). --- ### **Price Prediction: Trends and Upcoming Months** Given the provided data, the **Dragon Mattock's pricing trends** display high sensitivity to update activity, gold injections, and player-base demand. For example: - The **max price of 57M in June 2024** aligns with GP inflation caused by the **May 2024 Max Cash update exploit** and demand surges due to the **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)**, where Archaeology tools often spike before competitive boss releases. - Significant price **dips (e.g., 33.8M in August 2024)** correlate with updates like the **Mining and Smithing rework**, which shifted attention away from Archaeology's toolset temporarily. ##### Predicted Price Movement: 1. **1-2 Months (Steady):** - Expect relative stability near **39M-42M** as Jagex has currently stabilized gold sinks (e.g., increased Bond prices in June 2024) and introduced no imminent Archaeology updates. - Seasonal GP injection events (e.g., **Christmas events**) could introduce a **5-10% temporary dip**. 2. **3-6 Months (Moderate Spike Potential):** - Potential content expansions for **elite Archaeology relics** or **new discovery sites in mid-2025** could cause a **15-20% price rise.** - Natural GP inflation trends due to ongoing dupes or TH GP rewards may also lift this anchor item’s long-term floor to around **45-50M.** ##### Historical Influences: - **Spikes:** Notable increases in demand followed updates like the **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)** and meta Archaeology updates. - **Dips:** Reduced player interest or focus shifts during unrelated updates, such as Necromancy releases or Mining/Smithing reworks. - **Financial Shocks:** Economic upheavals like dupes, Treasure Hunter GP injections, and Max Cash bugs heavily influenced its price indirectly by diluting GP value. **Next Major Dip Catalysts:** None expected unless PvM meta shifts away from bosses like Raksha or another significant gold flood event occurs. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Dragon Mattock’s relative liquidity in the high-level Archaeology market creates consistent flipping opportunities: - Typical flipping margins fall within the **3-6% range**, around **1.2M-2.5M profit per trade.** - Margins significantly widen during volatility (updates, gold inflations) and narrow during stagnation. For example: - Post-**Sanctum of Rebirth** surge in June-July 2024 boosted flipping margins to as high as **7-10% (3.5M-5M)**. - Late-August-September 2024 offered narrower margins of **2-4% (1M-1.5M)** due to stabilization post-rework. **Advice on Flipping:** - Buy during dips observed after meta-shifts (e.g., Necromancy or unrelated reworks in August). - Time sales with PvM drop-related content updates or GP injection events. --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** Several Archaeology-focused or related items follow similar demand patterns and can be incorporated into a diversified flipping strategy: 1. **Crystal Mattock (lower risk, medium reward):** - Typically affected by Dragon Mattock pricing, as the Dragon Mattock is used to craft it. Price tends to spike **slightly earlier** than Dragon Mattocks since buyers often preemptively acquire upgrade components. 2. **Imcando Mattock (high-end option):** - Follows roughly the same trends but with greater magnitude in spikes during Archaeology-related updates. - Lower liquidity makes it less ideal for short-term flipping. 3. **Tetracompass Pieces (fast cycles):** - Tetracompass components indirectly scale with Dragon Mattock demand since higher Archaeology levels promote their continued farming. - Flipping margins of **8-12%** during peak demand cycles like content patches. --- ### **Market Seasonality and Associated Item Advice** RuneScape's market seasonality is influenced by real-world holiday schedules, player count surges, and game-centric content patterns. For Dragon Mattocks, here’s what to expect: 1. **Positive Price Seasons:** - **Mid-Year (May-July):** Historically, mid-year updates like Archaeology expansions (or reworks as in 2024) cause demand surges. - **Post-Event Buff Cycles (3-6 months after a PvM boss update):** Players shift focus back to skilling once combat-centric updates recede. **Item Suggestions:** Focus on flipping Crystal Mattocks, Imcando tools, and Tetracompass pieces during these periods alongside Dragon Mattocks for maximum diversification. 2. **Negative Price Seasons:** - **Post-Holiday GP Dilution (January-March):** Christmas/New Year events create GP oversaturation, often depressing prices. - **Major PvM Releases:** Attention shifts to combat gear. **Item Suggestions:** Avoid stocking Dragon Mattocks. Consider diversifying into **core PvM items (e.g., ability codices like Greater Ricochet)** or GP-neutral investments like Bonds. --- ### **Conclusion** The Dragon Mattock remains a consistent, high-value Archaeology staple with moderate flipping margins and predictable demand surges. Future price movement hinges on player interest in related content or GP-driven inflation. Expect a steady rise in 2025 as supply tightens post-dip. Diversify with similar skilling tools or PvM-adjacent items during off-seasons for optimal returns.